English Premier League xG: Gameweek 12 Edges Utilizing Expected Goals Data

Written By The xG Philosophy on November 15, 2021 - Last Updated on December 1, 2021
premier league expected goals

We return from the third International Break of the season with a profit of +19.16 units after just seven gameweeks of offering Premier League xG edges in this column based on Expected Goals data.

We’ll look to build on this return over the busy Christmas period, which sees a run of nine gameweeks between now and the turn of the year.

For a further explanation of how we use xG data to identify the value in the market, check out our “What is xG?” page or pick up a copy of “The Expected Goals Philosophy“.

We are betting one unit on each of the following matches, unless stated otherwise. Click on the odds below to bet now in the United States.

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Wolves vs. West Ham

Saturday, Nov. 20, 10 a.m. ET

xG Analysis

Our featured match of this weekend’s action is West Ham to beat Wolves on Saturday afternoon. The Hammers have been in great form this season, most recently defeating Liverpool at the London Stadium.

David Moyes’ side have been particularly dangerous in attack, creating the third most xG in the league so far this season (20.92). Spearheading their frontline is Michail Antonio, who’s accumulated the third most xG of any single player (behind only Mo Salah and Sadio Mané).

The East Londoners have accumulated more xG than their opponents in each of their last six matches – and we expect them to do so again against a Wolves team who are suffering a minor blip. The Midlands club were battered by Crystal Palace last time out, conceding 2.21(xG) and creating a measly 0.29(xG) in reply. Previous to that they also ‘lost’ on xG to Everton and Leeds.

As such, we’ll be staking two units on West Ham to triumph at odds of 40.3%.

Best Available West Ham Odds

Manchester City vs. Everton

Sunday, Nov. 21, 9 a.m. ET

xG Analysis

We’ve had a few decent long-shots come in over the course of the last two weekends. First we tipped a Brighton draw with Liverpool. Then, we backed a Burnley draw away at Chelsea.

This week we’re tipping Everton to cause Man City some problems. The Toffees are priced at just 5.9% to beat the Citizens, with a draw being priced at 12.5%. Whilst we agree with the bookmakers that Man City are likely to win this game, we believe there is value in taking on Everton at such low odds.

The visitors are net positive when it comes to xG this campaign, having accumulated 2.87(xG) more than the teams they’ve played so far this season. They’re an above-average team, but the odds are more reflective of them being a relegation-threatened side.

We’ll be staking one-half unit on both a draw and an Everton victory. If Everton win, we’ll be turning a profit of around +8 units and from this game alone, +3.75 if Everton draw.

Best Available Everton Odds

Newcastle vs. Brentford

Saturday, Nov. 20, 10 a.m. ET

xG Analysis

On Saturday, Newcastle host Brentford in a game that could have drastic implications on the bottom of the table.

The hosts are still looking for their first win of the season and have been the second-worst team in the league so far according to Expected Goals. Indeed, the hosts have only accumulated more xG than their opponents in one Premier League match so far.

In contrast, Brentford have only ‘lost’ two games on Premier League xG this term. The Bees have been putting in some admirable performances of late, creating more scoring opportunities in their matches against Chelsea, Leicester and Norwich. However, they fell on the wrong side of the result in all three of those matches.

Brentford are underperforming their xG more than any team in the league, having scored 13 goals from 17.44(xG) and conceding 14 goals from 12.93(xG).

Due to these positive underlying numbers, we’re backing the Bees to triumph in this game against Newcastle at odds of 36.5%.

Best Available Brentford Odds

Aston Villa vs. Brighton

Sunday, Nov. 20, 10:00 a.m. ET

xG Analysis

Brighton take the trip up to the Midlands to face an Aston Villa team who have just appointed Steven Gerrard as manager.

The sacking of Dean Smith came after the Villans ‘won’ on xG in just three of their 11 matches so far this campaign (and those three all came in the first four gameweeks of the season).

Aston Villa have looked particularly tepid going forward, ranking bottom five in Premier League xG so far (11.85) as Danny Ings and Ollie Watkins haven’t quite gelled yet as a strike partnership.

Brighton are fresh off a strong performance against Newcastle and an xG ‘win’ over Liverpool. We’ll be backing the Seagulls to win this match at a price of 34.3%.

Best Available Brighton Odds

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