English Premier League Expected Goals: Gameweek 11 Edges Utilizing xG Data

Written By The xG Philosophy on November 2, 2021 - Last Updated on November 5, 2021
premier league expected goals

Last weekend saw us turn a profit of 5.86 units after backing Brighton to draw with Liverpool, West Ham to defeat Aston Villa and Southampton to beat Watford. The tally sits at +24.16 units for the season as a whole, looking to build on the Premier League expected goals success in this final week before the third International Break of the season.

For a further explanation of how to use xG to identify the value in the market, check out our “What is xG?” page or pick up a copy of “The Expected Goals Philosophy”.

I have bet one unit on each of the following matches, unless stated otherwise. Click on the odds below to bet now.

Arsenal v Watford

Sunday, Nov. 7, 9 a.m. ET

xG Analysis

Watford travel to the Emirates stadium this weekend, looking to kick-start their season in a London derby against the Gunners.

Arsenal are fresh off the back of a fairly lucky win over Leciester. The 2-0 scoreline doesn’t tell the whole story, as the Foxes accumulated 1.98(xG) without scoring. Some Aaron Ramsdale heroics bailed Arsenal out in what was a fairly poor performance.

Watford have been poor themselves at times this season, although there is an air of positivity around the club now that Claudio Ranieri has taken charge as manager.

The bookies are giving Arsenal a whopping 69.9% chance of victory, which I feel massively overstates the gulf in class between the two teams. The visitors definitely have the ability to make the game tighter than is reflected in these odds. As such, I’ll be betting on a Watford win at odds of 11.1%.

Best Available Watford Odds

Brighton v Newcastle

Saturday, Nov. 6, 1:30 p.m. ET

xG Analysis

Newcastle make the long trip down to the South Coast to face a Brighton team who have blown hot and cold this season.

The bookies are heavily favouring the hosts, offering odds of 59.9% on a victory for the Seagulls. These sort of odds are usually reserved for the ‘big 6’ teams in the division.

I feel that whilst Newcastle have been one of the worst teams in the league this season, they still have the ability to cause teams problems. Recent close games with Leeds, Watford and Wolves will give them confidence that they can make thing difficult for Brighton at times.

Whilst I do think Brighton will triumph in this match, I also think there’s value in backing Newcastle at a 16.1% implied win probability.

Best Available Newcastle Odds

Everton v Tottenham

Sunday, Nov. 7, 9 a.m. ET

xG Analysis

On Sunday, Everton welcome Tottenham to Goodison Park. The Toffees are priced at 34.3% in what the bookies are expecting to be a tight match.

Spurs sacked Nuno this week and, despite Conte being hotly tipped to join over the next few days, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to impress his philosophy on the Spurs players by that point.

Tottenham have been one of the worst teams in the league this season according to xG – only three teams have accumulated less than their 10.60(xG) over the ten Premier League gameweeks this season. Based on the quantity and quality of chances they’ve created this campaign, they should be comfortably in the bottom half of the table.

Everton, on the other hand, have actually performed quite well. They’re averaging an xG difference of +0.30(xG) per game over their opponents this season. As such, I’ll be betting on the hosts to win.

Best Available Everton Odds

West Ham v Liverpool

Sunday, Nov. 7, 11:30 a.m. ET

xG Analysis

Last week we tipped Liverpool to draw at home to Brighton at odds of 14.7% – I felt that there was value in that selection. However, this week I feel the bookies have gone too far the other direction in terms of assessing Liverpool’s chances of a victory.

The Reds are priced at 58.8% to defeat West Ham, but our model suggests that likelihood should be closer to 68.0%. As such, I’ll wager on a victory for the Reds.

Whilst it’s true that West Ham have been good this season, I expect Liverpool to triumph fairly comfortably on this occasion. The visitors have created the most Premier League expected goals (29.09) and conceded the second least xG (11.27) in the Premier League so far.

Best Available Liverpool Odds

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