English Premier League Expected Goals: Gameweek 10 Edges Utilizing xG Data

Written By The xG Philosophy on October 26, 2021 - Last Updated on October 29, 2021
premier league expected goals

Last week was our first unprofitable gameweek of the season – it was bound to happen at some point! We’re still +18.3 units for the season and hopefully this week will allow us to bounce back in style, trusting the process and continuing to utilize Premier League expected goals as our compass.

For a further explanation of how we use xG to identify the value in the market, check out our “What is xG?” page or pick up a copy of The Expected Goals Philosophy.

We have bet one unit on each of the following matches, unless stated otherwise. Click on the odds below to bet now.

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Aston Villa vs. West Ham

Sunday, Oct. 31, 12:30 p.m. ET

xG Analysis

Our largest edge this weekend comes from Villa Park, as West Ham make the journey up to the Midlands looking to carry on their good run of form.

The Hammers have accumulated more xG than their opponents in each of their last four games, most impressively against Tottenham last time out. Michail Antonio has been at the heart of the East Londoners’ good form – he’s accumulated 6.39 xG so far this season (only Mo Salah has more).

They face an Aston Villa team who have accumulated less xG than their opponents in each of their last four matches – the polar opposite of West Ham’s form.

The bookmakers are expecting this to be a tight game, giving odds of 36.2% and 38.8% to Aston Villa and West Ham, respectively. However, I see the visitors as being clear favorites and as such will be staking two units on them to emerge victorious.

Best Available West Ham Odds In Your State

Watford vs. Southampton

Saturday, Oct. 30, 10:00 a.m. ET

xG Analysis

Southampton have been a bit of a bizarre team in recent times. They have the tendency to blow hot and cold, sometimes looks like a very capable side but looking rather limp on other occasions.

The Saints have conceded more chances than they’ve created this season, but only just. Their xG difference over the course of the campaign is -1.34, reflecting the fact that they’ve been slightly outperformed over the nine matches so far.

However, Watford have been even poorer, with a Premier League expected goals difference of -6.54 from their fixtures so far. Only Norwich and Newcastle have a worse record in this department.

The bookies are giving Southampton a 43.5% chance of victory, but the model suggests they have a 56.1% likelihood of winning. As such, I’ll be staking one unit on the Saints.

Best Available Southampton Odds In Your State

Norwich City vs. Leeds United

Sunday, Oct. 31, 10:00 a.m. ET

xG Analysis

On Sunday afternoon, Norwich make the journey up North to face Leeds being priced at 27.0%.

Whilst it’s true that Norwich have struggled this campaign, the same can be said for their hosts. Leeds have accumulated less xG than their opponents in six of their nine matches so far.

Moreover, Premier League expected goals data shows us Leeds have conceded 16.07 xG already this campaign – that’s the third most in the division.

I think that this will be a tighter match than the odds are suggesting, and will be staking one unit on Norwich to get a first win of the season against a depleted Leeds outfit.

Best Available Norwich Odds In Your State

Liverpool vs. Brighton

Saturday, Oct. 30, 10:00 a.m. ET

Liverpool are on red hot form at the moment, having just defeated Manchester United by five goals to nil.

However, there have been indications that Jurgen Klopp might tweak his squad slightly this week, possibly resting the talismanic Mo Salah for the visit of Brighton. Indeed, the Reds will almost certainly be without James Milner and Naby Keita, who both picked up knocks in last weekend’s victory.

Liverpool welcome a Brighton side who more than held their own in the second half against Man City last weekend. If they can perform against Liverpool the same way they performed in the latter 45 minutes against City, they’ll have a fighting chance of taking something away from the match.

Whilst I believe Liverpool will probably win this game, the odds of 14.7% and 8.0% for a draw or Brighton win, respectively, are too tasty to turn down. As such, I’ll be staking one-half unit on each of these outcomes (a total of one unit being staked on this match).

Best Available Brighton Odds In Your State

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