England vs. Senegal: 2022 World Cup Round of 16 Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Dan Tracey on November 30, 2022 - Last Updated on December 3, 2022
england vs. senegal odds

The Round Of 16 of the FIFA World Cup sees Group B winner England hosting Group A’s second-place finisher, Senegal. Coming in with 2 wins and a draw in their group and seven points, the English have reason to be optimistic that it might finally be coming home. That said, Senegal came out of their group with six points after two wins and a loss, and the winners of the 2022 African Cup of Nations will represent a formidable test for Gareth Southgate’s team.

Bettors should be aware during the Knockout Rounds that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If tied after that but a team wins in Extra Time or Penalty Kicks, soccer’s version of overtime, all three-way moneyline bets are still graded as a draw. If you are looking for a moneyline bet that pays out no matter when the win comes, look for “To Advance” props.   

England Versus Senegal Odds

Play TheLines World Cup KnockoutChallenge! Compete for $250 in prizes in our FREE leaderboard game during the World Cup tournament stage.

England Team Preview

After eventually breezing past Wales on Tuesday, England has now breezed into the Round of 16. While because they finished top of Group B, it also means they avoid the Netherlands in the next round.

Then again, a meeting with Senegal is not one that can be overlooked either and this is something that manager Gareth Southgate will be fully aware of. While the man tasked with leading the Three Lions may have something of a dilemma before Sunday.

Admittedly it is a nice dilemma, as Southgate has to decide whether to use the starting 11 that beat Wales 3-0 or revert to the team that picked up four of the first six group stage points on offer.

With Kieran Trippier and Kyle Walker considered largely interchangeable at right back, the bigger debate is going to be further forward and with both Phil Foden and Marcus Rashford getting on Tuesday’s scoresheet, it could be incredibly difficult to return them to the bench.

In soccer there is one adage that has lasted the test of time – if it is not broken, then do not fix it. Words that will certainly be ringing in the ears of the England coaching setup. You get the feeling that Foden and Rashford have done enough to retain the starting berths.

However, even if Raheem Sterling and Buakyo Saka were selected for inclusion against Senegal it would mean nothing in the way of a downgrade either. With a litany of attacking choices now available, this England team is once again brimming with confidence.

Senegal Team Preview

No Sadio Mane, no problem. Even though Senegal lost their opening World Cup encounter at the hands of the Netherlands, there was no cause for concern as far as manager Aliou Cisse was concerned.

Because the Group A equation for Senegal was relatively simple. Get the toughest fixture out of the way first and then earn maximum points in the remaining pair of matches. Crack that code and knockout football would be theirs.

With Qatar disposed of with ease, it meant a grandstand encounter with Ecuador on Monday. Win that fixture and they were through. Any other result and they would be on the first flight home. 

A flight that was almost printing the tickets by the time Ecuador scored an equalizer with 23 minutes remaining. Tickets that were then in the waste paper bin by the time Kalidou Koulibaly netted a winner for Senegal just 180 seconds after.

Despair for the South American nation and their players, jubilation for their African counterparts. However, there is very little time for them to truly celebrate such an achievement and now the focus pivots to their clash with England.

This Senegalese squad has a number of players who are familiar with English soccer and the Premier League, in particular. As Chelsea’s Eduoard Mendy and Kalidou Koulibaly prepare for battle, they would love nothing more than to reach the World Cup’s last eight. 

World Cup Knockout Rounds Bracket

England vs. Senegal Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team to use when handicapping World Cup odds.

While Senegal has mostly matched their expected their expected goal difference so far this tournament, England has wildly outperformed it.

TeamGoals ForGoals AgainstGoal DifferenceWorld Cup xGWorld Cup xGAWorld Cup xGD
England 9274.892.232.66
Senegal5414.253.11.15

Matchup History

In terms of the history between England and Senegal, there is nothing to report as yet. As the two nations prepare to meet on Sunday, it will be their first-ever international clash and the stage will be no bigger than the World Cup finals.

As far as recent tournament history is concerned, England made it as far as the semi-finals four years ago and of course, there is the small matter of that famous overall win in 1966. 

While Senegal first broke onto the World Cup scene 20 years ago and after beating then-holders France on the opening day of the tournament, they would eventually go on to reach the quarter-finals. 

England vs. Senegal Bets To Consider

Harry Kane to score first goal:

Although Harry Kane has yet to open his World Cup goal account, he is far from having a bad tournament. With the Tottenham forward inadvertently switching from goalscorer to the role of creator, he has seemingly added another bow to his all-round game.

However, that is not to ignore his deadly attributes when it comes to scoring goals. Just because he is yet to get off the mark, it does not mean that the 29-year-old has completely frozen in front of the opposition’s goal.

Far from it in fact and with the small matter of Wayne Rooney’s England record up for grabs, Kane still finds himself agonizingly short of the accolade. Two more goals will see him become the equal top scorer, a third sees him earn the record for himself.

While the meeting with Senegal is the last of the easier fixtures that the Three Lions will look to contest at this year’s World Cup. Should they get the better of the African representatives, things will only begin to get tougher from here.

This is why this fixture offers England’s talisman a golden opportunity to finally get off the mark. Should that be the case and the Three Lions roar to the next round, it will also offer Kane a launchpad for further tournament goals. 

England win to nil: +115

Going into this encounter, England has only conceded two goals at this year’s World Cup finals. Perhaps more importantly, they have managed to keep clean sheets in each of their last two outings.

Although they failed to keep Iran at bay, there was an element of mitigating circumstance attached. One that saw Gareth Southgate’s men end the game with six goals of their own and therefore, lapses of concentration can just about be allowed.

Lapses that were not evident against either the USA or Wales. Although Christian Pulisic did rattle the frame of Jordan Pickford’s goal and Weston McKennie should have punished England’s defense, the history books will point to no goals conceded.

While even though Senegal has advanced to the Round of 16 without the services of Sadio Mane, a meeting with England is certainly a step up in terms of competition, and the fate that unfolded against the Netherlands will unfold against the English.

One that sees European opposition come away with a win and a clean sheet to go alongside. The perfect result for England, the worst possible outcome for Senegal, and if you think the outcome will be a 2-0 win for the Three Lions, you can also back this at +525.

World Cup Sports Betting Promos England vs. Senegal Odds

Dan Tracey Avatar
Written by
Dan Tracey

View all posts by Dan Tracey