Euro 2024 Odds: England vs. Netherlands Semifinals Betting Preview

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
England vs Netherlands Odds

As the UEFA European Championships has reached the “Final Four,” we’ll have soccer betting guides for the remaining fixtures in the Euro 2024 bracket. Let’s break down the latest Netherlands vs. England odds, with a trip to the championship match on the line in the second semi-final tilt on Wedneday. The Three Lions are on the three-way moneyline to win. Oranje is in this market. Regarding predictions, the current odds give England an implied probability of roughly 38.02% to win this match in regular time, with each outcome fairly close to the other.

Click any odds below to make a wager at online betting sites. Remember, when betting Euro 2024 odds for the Knockout Stage, there are two ways to bet the matches. The three-way moneyline includes a draw. Those markets cover the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

England vs. Netherlands “To Advance” Odds

Bettors can also dabble in “to advance” or “to qualify” betting markets. These odds reference whether a team will move on in the field, regardless of when the game is won. Be mindful that teams may win in extra time or a penalty shootout, meaning the three-way markets only pay out “draw” bets.

England VS. Netherlands BEST BETS & Predictions

James Tippett, author of The xG Philosophy, is contributing to during Euros, using the Expected Goals advanced metric to identify bets he believes have value and a better chance of cashing than the implied probability in the odds. Here are his bets for Spain vs. France.

Three-Way Moneyline: England To Win

The Three Lions haven’t played the most spellbinding football, but their defensive strength has seen them progress to the final four. They have conceded just 0.75(xG) per ninety at the tournament so far – only France can boast a better defensive record.

Netherlands have also had a decent competition, but have only won three of their five matches on xG. And based on the chances they created in the quarterfinals, the Dutch were very fortunate to scrape past a Turkey side that they were heavily fancied against.

Given the xG performances of both teams so far, I think England represent the value bet in this clash.

Over 2.5 Goals (+162)

In the quarterfinals, we correctly tipped the Netherlands game to see Over 2.5 Goals but incorrectly tipped the England game to do so. This game is a case of the strongest defence left in the tournament based on xG (England) playing against the worst (Netherlands).

But despite England’s problems going forward early in the tournament, their new formation in the quarterfinals did look to pay dividends (even if they struggled to convert their chances).

You may call us crazy for backing Over 2.5 Goals in an England game when none of their five matches have hit this target in 90 minutes. But betting is all about price, and better than +150 for Over 2.5 Goals in any game of football is incredibly generous, especially a game which features players who are so good at outperforming xG (Kane, Bellingham, Saka, Gakpo, Depay).

Across all the games at Euro 2024, the average xG of both teams combined has been 2.76(xG). If this game gets close to that, then this price starts to look very tempting indeed, and I’d rather be on the over side of the line than the under side at -200.

England vs. Netherlands Projected Starting Lineups

Here are the expected starters for each team:

GK Jordan PickfordGK Bart Verbruggen
DF Kyle WalkerDF Denzel Dumbfries
DF John StonesDF Stefan de Vrij
DF Marc GuehiDF Virgil van Dijk
DF Kieran TrippierDF Nathan Ake
DF Trent Alexander-ArnoldMF Jerdy Schouten
MF Declan RiceMF Tijjani Reijnders
MF Jude BellinghamMF Xavi Simons
MF Phil FodenMF Cody Gakpo
FW Harry Kane FW Steven Bergwijn
FW Bukayo SakaFW Memphis Depay

Netherlands vs. England odds: Match Preview

Some bettors may argue Switzerland should be facing the Netherlands in this Euro 2024 semi-final match. The Swiss generated a 1.51 to 0.68 expected-goal (xG) edge over England by the end of extra-time on Saturday. A late equalizer — this time via Bukayo Saka — saved the Three Lions from elimination in regulation. They advanced with a 5-3 advantage on penalties after a 1-1 draw.

While their attack has been critiqued throughout this tournament, the defense has performed exceptionally well. England hasn’t allowed a single goal from set-pieces, penalties, or counter-attacks. Moreover, their 0.09 xG opponent per shot mark exceeds Spain’s and France’s defensive showing. For reference, the Three Lions have the second-shortest price tag to win Euro 2024 at , stationed only behind Spain.

The Netherlands also delivered a comeback victory against Turkey on Saturday evening, with an own goal by Mert Müldür in the 76th minute. It came minutes after Stefan de Vrij’s equalizer.

With this win, the Dutch punched a ticket to the semi-finals of a European Championship for the first time in 20 years, good for their sixth appearance overall.

Thus far, the Netherlands’ defensive standing isn’t nearly as favorable as what England has showcased. Regarding xG conceded per 100 set pieces, their rate of 6.1 is the sixth worst out of all teams in the field. The Netherlands surrendered a goal from an in-swinging corner against Poland in their first match before surrendering the same outcome in the second phase of a corner kick in the quarter-finals.

Cody Gapko is in the driver’s seat for the odds to win the Golden Boot, but Harry Kane & Co. have the upper hand defensively.

An Official Oddity

Felix Zwayer will referee Wednesday’s do-or-die match in Dortmund after serving a six-month ban in 2005. This suspension was triggered by Zwayer accepting the equivalent of a $325 bribe from Robert Hoyzer, another soccer official at the time.

The investigation deemed Zwayer guilty of favoring the German club SV Wuppertal in their match against Werder Bremen Amateure in May 2004.

England midfielder Jude Bellingham, who suited up with Dortmund in 2021, cited this incident in a postmatch interview three years ago after Borussia Dortmund fell to Bayern Munich. Oddly enough, Zwayer was officiating that pivotal contest.

“You give a referee, that has match-fixed before, the biggest game in Germany,” Bellingham said then. “What do you expect?”

England vs. Netherlands: Game Props

You can sift through various England vs. Netherlands props, including corner kicks generated.

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England vs. Netherlands Odds: Player Props

Check out a full catalog of player props regarding odds for England vs. Netherlands, including scoring an anytime goal and the first goal.

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