England vs. France: World Cup Quarterfinal Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Dan Tracey on December 5, 2022 - Last Updated on January 11, 2023
england vs. france odds

2022 World Cup odds have advanced to the quarterfinals, where longtime rivals England and France battle once again. With England being the highest scoring team of the tournament and France having the tournament’s most explosive player to this point, there’s nary a better matchup available. As France tries to defend its title from 2018, they’ll have to go through the English, who are trying to bring it home for the first time since 1966. This match will be played Saturday, Dec. 10 at 2 p.m. ET on Fox and Telemundo. Let’s check out England vs. France odds.

Bettors should be aware during the Knockout Rounds that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If tied after that but a team wins in Extra Time or Penalty Kicks, soccer’s version of overtime, all three-way moneyline bets are still graded as a draw. If you are looking for a moneyline bet that pays out no matter when the win comes, look for “To Advance” or “To Qualify” props.

England Vs. France Odds

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England Team Preview

Although Senegal certainly placed England on the ropes, they failed to land anywhere near a knockout blow on Sunday. A failure that would eventually lead to Aliou Cisse’s side being dumped out of this year’s World Cup.

Their failure would also lead to England growing into the game and eventually cultivating success for themselves. The success came in the shape of three quickfire goals and a treble that booked their place in the quarterfinals.

While for all the talk of England being boring under manager Gareth Southgate, he has crafted a team that has already scored 12 goals in Qatar and has been one of the most entertaining outfits thus far.

Admittedly, those 12 goals do come with the caveat of slightly easier opposition. However, you can only beat what is in front of you, and bar the stalemate with the United States, Southgate’s men have done precisely that.

Now though, the Three Lions will have the toughest test to date. While it is likely to be a date with destiny at the same time. Lying in wait are current holders France, and the prize is progression to the semi-finals.

Yes, it is a tough test but far from an impossible one either. Especially as this young pride of lions is only growing in confidence and this could be the key component for any success on Saturday. 

France Team Preview

Although England may be growing in confidence, they will still need to be fearful of their French counterparts. Especially as they have so many players who cause anguish for opposition defenders.

Because if it is not Kylian Mbappe who is using his lightning-fast pace, it is Olivier Giroud who is using his experience to find the perfect penalty area position. Add Antoine Griezmann and Ousmane Dembele to the conversation and England will have their work cut out. 

Especially as these four played a considerable amount of pain for Poland at the weekend and that match was evidence of when it all clicked for France, it is not good news for whoever stands in their way.

While Didier Deschamps’ men have done notably well in ridding themselves of the so-called ‘champions curse’. A hex that has been previously applied to the nation that won the World Cup four years prior.

A hex that France themselves fell foul of 20 years ago, as they failed to climb out of the group stage and as holders were sent on the first flight out of Japan. Now, they will look to be the first nation to win back-to-back tournaments since Brazil in 1962.

If they are to achieve such a feat, they may have to dispose of Brazil themselves, and should they meet it will be the final itself. First, the French have to dispose of England in the quarterfinal and that will be easier said than done.

World Cup Knockout Rounds Bracket

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England vs. France Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team to use when handicapping World Cup odds.

While France is leading the tournament in expected goals, it’s the English who have the most goals through the round of 16.

TeamGoals ForGoals AgainstGoal DifferenceWorld Cup xGWorld Cup xGAWorld Cup xGD
England 122+106.403.482.92
France94+58.53.864.64

Matchup History

In terms of the history between England and France, it is rather storied. There have been 31 previous clashes before Saturday’s meeting in Qatar, of those the Three Lions have been victorious on 17 separate occasions.

While they may have the lion’s share of success, France’s nine wins should not be overlooked either, and more importantly, they have a tendency to avoid defeat at major tournaments.

When the two nations met at the 2004 European Championships, a late Zinedine Zidane brace saw Les Blues snatch a group stage win. Eight years later, England could only manage a draw at Euro 2012. Now they will look to exact the ultimate form of revenge. 

England vs. France Odds: Bets To Consider

France to win and both teams to score: +400 (BetMGM)

For those who do not know and for full disclosure, I am an England supporter, and although it would be incredibly easy to offer a huge amount of bias to my very own, my first tip will be going in the other direction.

Because although England’s win over Senegal was emphatic in the end, Gareth Southgate’s side was incredibly sluggish in the first 30 minutes, and was it not for better finishing, the West African nation would have been out of sight.

Unfortunately for England, France certainly has the players to punish such tardiness in defense, and therefore, I am backing Les Blues to win this quarterfinal encounter in 90 minutes. 

However, that is not to say that Didier Deschamps’ men will have it all their own way and you simply cannot ignore an England outfit that is currently averaging three goals per game in Qatar.

This is why I am opting for both teams to find the net but for France to find more in total. The end of the road for this current England crop, a continuation of beating the sportsbooks if this tip comes good. 

Match Won By One Goal: +120 (BetMGM)

Now that I have disclosed that I am English, I could not completely ignore their chances on Saturday and my second tip offers a considerable amount of flexibility at the end of 90 minutes.

Because when considering the first tip, a logical outcome would be 2-1 to France. If that score is recorded, both aspects are ticked off and the bet is a winner. However, that does mean all your eggs go into Les Blues’ basket.

Not only that, but it does not cover a narrow 1-0 win for France. Thankfully this second selection does and if you feel that one goal will be all the difference, this is perhaps a safer suggestion for you.

By opting for just a one-goal margin of victory, it removes the need for both teams to score. Although there will be plenty of attacking talent on show, it may be a game and a bet that is won or lost in midfield. 

Especially as this allows for an England victory just as much. If England wins 1-0, 2-1, 3-2, or any larger winning combination by a difference of goal, this will be enough to turn this tip into a winner and send the Three Lions into the semi-finals. 

Best of luck with your bets on England vs. France odds.

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