England Vs Denmark: Euro 2020 Semifinal Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Marco Cerino on July 4, 2021 - Last Updated on July 7, 2021
england vs denamrk

The English fans have chanted “It’s Coming Home” for a few tournaments, looking for the country’s first major title since the 1966 World Cup. Well, to some degree, the fans have it right, ahead England vs Denmark.

The final three matches of Euro 2020 will take place at Wembley Stadium in London. The second semifinal features the Three Lions against the tournament darling, Denmark.

This match kicks off Wednesday, July 7 at 3:00p ET on ESPN.

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England vs Denmark Odds

England enters a heavy favorite playing at home and now the favorite to win it all in Euro 2020 outright odds. They seem to be peaking at the right time and have a strong lineup. The whole five clean sheets things helps as well against a team from Denmark whose only shutout came against Wales.

Here are the odds for Wednesday’s game at Wembley Stadium, airing on ESPN at 3 PM EST. The prices listed are for a full time result, consisting of the 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time.

England Vs Denamrk - Euro 2020 Semifinals Odds

England
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-139
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-145
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-150
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-143
Draw
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+265
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+250
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+270
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+255
Denmark
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+440
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+450
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+450
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+425
Over 2.5 Goals
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+132
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+128
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+120
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+124
Under 2.5 Goals
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-162
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-156
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-160
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-165

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Engalnd Vs Denmark Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

The four teams with superior xGD performance beat their opponents in the quarterfinals. In the semifinals, the differences aren’t as stark. The English continue to outperform their xGA by not allowing a goal. Denmark has also done well in xGA.

TeamGoals ScoredGoals ConcededGoal DifferentialEuro 2020 xGEuro 2020 xGAEuro 2020 xGD
England70+77.783.32+4.46
Denmark115+611.474.74+6.73

Path To The Semifinals

Denmark have won their last three matches, advancing to the round of four by defeating Russia in their final group play match, Wales in the round of 16, and Czech Republic 2-1 in the quarterfinals. Despite the loss of star Christian Eriksen, the Danes have played with togetherness and great vigor. This is the 10th-ranked team in FIFA’s world table so the Cinderella slipper fits, if a bit loosely.

England has seemingly brought their talented squad to their potential. In their 4-0 victory against Ukraine in the quarterfinals, the English tallied as many goals in 90 minutes at Stadio Olimpico as they did in four matches in London. After two Raheem Sterling goals were enough to top group play, they have scored six in two knockout rounds. And they still have yet to allow a goal in five matches.

England vs Denmark Final Betting Thoughts

England will get most of the handle. They enter favorites and may see prices shorten between now and Wednesday. Denmark may get some action as public darlings. However, the Danes will also face the best team they’ve seen. For the English, this is a huge opportunity to undo decades of international futility and justify the hope of fans. Can they seize the moment?

Denmark rose through the tournament despite tremendous odds and the loss of their most recognizable star. If this team wants to write another fairy tale ending like the 1992 team, they’ll have to overcome their toughest challenge. Is their xGD a sign Denmark can turn this into a nervy match for England?

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Marco Cerino

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