Euro 2020 Quarterfinals: England Vs Ukraine Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Marco Cerino on July 1, 2021 - Last Updated on July 4, 2021
England Vs Ukraine

Is it coming home THIS year? Well, the way the bracket has played out, it just might. England put decades of international futility behind them Tuesday with a 2-0 victory over Germany. Now, the Three Lions are the new tournament Euro 2020 favorites at sportsbooks. Here’s a full betting breakdown for England vs Ukraine with match odds.

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Match Preview

Saturday, they’ll have to leave Britain for the first time in the tournament and travel to Rome for their quarterfinal match-up with Ukraine. Despite only defeating North Macedonia in group play, Ukraine made the knockout round and defeated Sweden with a late goal in extra time to advance.

To advance to the semifinals, Ukraine will have to do what no other team has done in four games: score on England. Jordan Pickford has played very well in goal in his major tournament debut. The offense has been led by Raheem Sterling, who has scored three of the team’s four goals so far.

With a spot in the semis back at Wembley Stadium on the line, many are looking to see if England can take the next step. For Ukraine, now the longest odds on the Euro 2020 futures board, it will take their best effort in the tournament – and possibly in their entire history.

TV: Saturday, ABC, 3:00p ET

England Vs Ukraine Odds

Considering their position on the championship futures market, it should be no surprise this game features the largest favorite and underdog of the quarterfinal round. England has the superstar-studded lineup that just seems to be finding their best form.

Ukraine has shown offensive prowess in the tournament, with two goals in three of four matches. They have also conceded in every match. This will be their sternest challenge – and biggest opportunity – for the tournament.

The prices listed are for regulation, 90 minutes plus stoppage time. It does not cover a result in extra time or penalty kicks.

Euro 2020 Quarterfinal Odds: England Vs Ukraine

England
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-235
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-260
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-250
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-250
Draw
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+335
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+330
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+350
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+325
Ukraine
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+800
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+700
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+750
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+750
Over 2.5 Total Goals
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+112
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+108
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+100
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+102
Under 2.5 Total Goals
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-136
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-132
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-130
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-135

England vs Ukraine Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

This time, the team with the variance between results and xG figures are the favorites. England have done well on the field with four straight clean sheets. However, the xGA numbers show some potential vulnerability. That may not bode well for the team’s shutout streak. Ukraine’s xG numbers align with their on-field stats.

Here are the team’s results and xG statistics, along with their rankings among the eight remaining Euro 2020 teams:

TeamGoals ScoredGoals AllowedGoal DifferentialEuro 2020 xGEuro 2020 xGAEuro 2020 xGD
Ukraine6 (5th)6 (7th)0 (7th)6.65 (5th)6.68 (7th)-0.03 (6th)
England4 (8th)0 (1st)+4 (5th)5.63 (6th)3.06 (2nd)+2.57 (4th)

Betting Angle

Did Tuesday’s 2-0 win over Germany give England manager Jared Southgate enough confidence to let the Three Lions run? The talented squad has been more defensive in their games and scored on some clever counters and individual efforts. The final goal gave superstar Harry Kane his first in Euro competition.

I must say I find it amusing they referred to that as “breaking his duck” instead of “opening his account” or, as we might say, “getting off the schneid” when Kane finally scored.

That could help the superstar contribute more in the offense.

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