Eli’s NFL Week 9 Best Bets: Spread Picks For Cowboys At Eagles, Commanders At Patriots
With NFL Week 9 odds ready to kick off, this article guides bettors with price discovery and handicapping point spreads, moneyline odds, and totals across NFL betting sites. In particular, Patriots vs. Commanders and the Eagles vs. Cowboys stood out — compared to my NFL betting model. With that in mind, let’s examine my NFL Week 9 best bets for these two games, involving NFC East odds.
Click any odds to place a bet at the best sports betting sites. The following numbers represent the best odds available in your state.
bet: commanders (+3.5) to lose by fewer than three points or fewer (or win outright)
Some bettors may be unfamiliar with the aforementioned term, price discovery. As bets come in on the opening point spread, the process initiates. Bettors’ early action is used to adjust the number. Sportsbooks could also follow the same script of operators deemed “market makers,” tinkering with their prices because a polarizing competitor shifted theirs. Needless to say, their liability tolerance (or lack thereof) could be enough to modify the odds themselves, too.
As for the Commanders’ odds, they were altered from +3 to +3.5 (-115) after shipping off defensive linemen Montez Sweat (Bears) and Chase Young (49ers) ahead of Tuesday’s trade deadline. Their best odds available are currently .
What Do Moves Insinuate?
Although some operators have this game lined with a field-goal spread — albeit with juice — there’s a market sentiment that the losses of Sweat and Young will depreciate this bottom-five defense. As much upside as they each possess, neither has played up to his ceiling this season. Moreover, Washington remains one game back of the wild-card race, meaning there’s still motivation on the table.
The edge-rushing fill-ins, particularly Casey Toohill, aren’t as significant of a drop-off as one may expect. Plus, Young freelanced too often on a down-by-down basis. It’s no surprise that Jack Del Rio’s defenses have held up when he’s missed time, partly thanks to Commanders’ above-average blitz rate. Combine that variable with the Patriots’ banged-up offensive line, tallying the league’s worst pass-block win rate.
This metric illustrates how often linemen sustain their blocks for 2.5 seconds or longer. If Washington’s pressure rate is relatively steady like I project, Mac Jones’ bottom-barrel completion percentage under pressure comes into play, even against a subpar secondary. Jones is unlikely to have wideout Devante Parker (concussion) at his disposal after losing Kendrick Bourne, his go-to target, to a torn ACL.
Conversely, Bill Belichick’s defenses are historically pristine at taking at the opponent’s top receiver. That’s no different this year, with the Patriots accruing the best DVOA vs. No. 1 wideouts. Hence, Washington quarterback Sam Howell, who’s struggled in his own right versus the blitz, must funnel fewer targets in Terry McClaurin’s direction.
That said, New England’s corners are still exploitable in zone coverage, especially the reinserted J.C. Jackson. Howell owns a much finer passer rating versus this particular setup, too.
I grabbed the hook with the Commanders, which you will find below. I wouldn’t bet them at a flat three, as a play above the key number is ever so valuable, with these teams almost dead even in my power ratings. Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord to get an alert when I first place a bet. Head to the #roles server to enroll in the push notifications.
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bet: cowboys (+3) to lose by fewer than three points (or win outright)
This spread among contenders for Super Bowl 58 odds hasn’t budged from the look-ahead line. It was the same among preseason odds, to boot. The betting market insists that Philly is the same team it was last season — albeit tying for the sixth-easiest schedule thus far, per my ratings. As a result, Dallas is still to win the NFC East, sitting 1.5 games back of the division lead.
Sell High On Eagles
Collectively, Sean Desai’s defense ranks No. 17 in EPA per play allowed. While Philadelphia showcases one of the premier defensive fronts, the secondary has taken a sizable step back after finishing with the top-ranked pass defense in 2022. Despite acquiring former Titans safety Kevin Byard, corners Darius Slay and James Bradberry have tallied below-average coverage grades. The aforementioned Howell had his way with them in their two meetings, along with linebacker Nakobe Dean when he was in coverage.
Dak Prescott, boasting a top-10 adjusted EPA per dropback and success rate among qualified QBs, will pick up where Howell left off. He’ll benefit from the expected return of left tackle Tyron Smith (neck), an elite pass blocker when healthy, who missed the blowout win over the Rams in Week 8.
On the flip side, Prescott’s counterpart, Jalen Hurts, is dealing with a knee injury that limited him to just four carries against Washington. That won’t bode well for him against the Cowboys’ second-ranked pass-rush win rate. Hurts is also positioned at No. 11 in turnover-worthy plays, and he’s tied for the second-most interceptions because of it.
Dallas’ secondary has held up well with corner Trevon Diggs (torn ACL) on the shelf, thanks to DaRon Bland’s veteran presence. The run defense has been the opposite, but Micah Parsons & Co. have shored up that department over their last two contests. In what begins an arduous portion of the schedule for the Eagles, don’t be surprised if Hurts delivers another critical turnover or two.
If this spread dips below a field goal before kickoff, consider teasing Dallas up or live betting the Cowboys. Good luck with your NFL Week 9 best bets.
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