Biden His Time: Joe Now The Odds-On Favorite Over Donald Trump In Election Betting Markets

Written By Chops | Last Updated
election odds Trump Biden polls President 2020
In late January, Joe Biden’s presidential campaign was dead in the water. He had no momentum. No buzz. That all belonged to Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg. Biden’s campaign was even more dead in February. Fourth and fifth place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively, will do that to you. Then in March, South Carolina happened. Today, Joe Biden is the overwhelming 2020 presidential election odds favorite. Biden is 77 years old. We can’t call him “kid.” So maybe he’s the “Comeback Grandpa?” This kind of rise is historic. As we’ve written previously, no candidate has ever finished outside the top 2 in Iowa AND New Hampshire and gone on to win his or her party’s nomination. Not only is Biden winning his nomination, he appears on track to trounce President Donald Trump in the November general election.
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Joe Biden 2020 presidential election odds

Biden is now priced as the odds-on favorite on most sites. You can find him listed from -137 to -170. Trump is now around +150. He has not been an underdog like this throughout the entire election lifecycle. How did we get here? This isn’t complicated. Trump’s disapproval marks are at all-time highs. Many believe that he has mishandled the COVID-19 crisis. The economic downturn that resulted because of COVID-19 has obviously not helped matters and more recently there was great racial tension in the US. If you need a more basic and visual representation of how the tides have turned on Trump, look no further than the Drudge Report front page. Once very pro-Trump, the immensely popular conservative site is now a bulletin board of negative takes on The Donald. The “elect-ability” argument has really proven to be true for Biden. He’s viewed as a perfectly vanilla candidate. In an election cycle dominated by its partisanship, Biden is just inoffensive enough to appeal to voters who are burned out on acrimony.

Can Trump turn the tide?

From a historical polling perspective, Biden could actually be a heavier favorite among oddsmakers. We don’t know how COVID-19 will yet impact party conventions — but we should expect the typical bounce to be more muted. For a candidate who elicits strong emotions like Trump, this doesn’t help his dwindling re-election chances. Ultimately, Trump’s best hope now is if COVID-19 infection numbers reduce and the economy recovers. Otherwise, Biden’s lead is becoming too much to overcome.

2020 US election odds (as of Tuesday, July 7)

CandidatePredictIt Price or MarketEquivalent OddsBet365 Odds
Ron DeSantis$0.28 – Bet NOW+257+275
Donald Trump$0.27 – Bet NOW+270+275
Joe Biden$0.21 – Bet NOW+376+650
Kamala Harris$0.08 – Bet NOW+1150 +1400
Gavin Newsom$0.07 – Bet NOW+1329+1400
Pete Buttigieg$0.07 – Bet NOW+1329+2800
Mike PencePence files for President before 2023?N/A+1800
Nikki HaleyFemale President in 2024?N/A+2000
Michelle ObamaFemale President in 2024?N/A+2500
Elizabeth WarrenDem 2024 Presidential nominee?N/A+3300
Elise StefanikFemale President in 2024?N/A+4000
Hillary ClintonFemale President in 2024?N/A+4000
Mike PompeoGOP 2024 Presidential nominee?N/A+5000
AOCAOC files for President before 2024?N/A+5000
Dwayne JohnsonN/AN/A+5000
Candace OwensFemale President in 2024?N/A+5000
Ivanka TrumpGOP 2024 Presidential nominee?N/A+5000
Tucker CarlsonGOP 2024 Presidential nominee?N/A+5000
Jeff BezosN/AN/A+6000
Ted CruzGOP 2024 Presidential nominee?N/A+6600