With the inauguration of the United States’ 46th President and 49th Vice President now over, oddsmakers in the United Kingdom have the opportunity to make changes in their 2024 election odds. So far, there hasn’t been much movement.
Current VP Kamala Harris retains her status as the front-runner to lead the executive branch of the US Federal Government four years from now at most UK books. The men who just vacated the President and VP posts, as well as the man who currently holds the title of Commander-In-Chief are also firmly in the 2024 US Presidential Election mix.
The latest 2024 election odds at UK sportsbooks
As no jurisdiction allows wagering on elections in the US, all the action all takes place across the Atlantic Ocean. Most books there still like Harris to not only become the first non-white woman to receive a major party nomination for President but to also win the election.
|Candidate||Bet365 (UK)||BetWay (UK)|
The field is much larger than just these 10 contenders, however. Bet365 has 40 people in its field. The longshot names include figures like Utah Sen. Mitt Romney (+10000 at Bet365), Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (+10000), Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos (+25000) and Barstool Sports Founder Dave Portnoy (+25000).
Bet365 also has an interesting new name among its short list. Retired US Army Lieutenant General Michael Flynn currently sits +2800 at that book.
Donald Trump sat between +800 and +1000 right after he lost his re-election bid. It appears UK books like him to become just the second US president to run for re-election on a major party ticket a second time after losing the first attempt.
Among those whose odds fell a bit since November is Trump’s VP, Mike Pence. Pence was +1000 or +1100 depending on the book at that time. For the most part, the other people on the short list have held steady since November.
While there is a lot of potential for more history to be made in 2024, US bettors shouldn’t count on it being the first election they can legally wager on. The impetus against such a change is still strong in most places.
Why can’t bettors in the US legally bet on their own elections?
Most jurisdictions that allow sports betting have either regulations or statutes explicitly banning these markets. There’s little doubt that they would be very popular if they were permissible. The free-to-play pool games, offered by DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook during US elections, receive a ton of entries. So why are governments passing on that tax revenue?
There are two concerns. Both of them have to do with voter turnout. First, the worry is that voters will cast their ballots to make their bets pay off instead of picking the best candidate for the job. Obviously, the latter of those two options is preferable.
Also, the fear is that if there’s a wide gap in the odds, that will discourage people from showing up to vote for any candidate. They might get the idea that it’s already over, so there is no point in voting. Democracy works best when every eligible voter participates.
With over three years until November 2024, these odds will likely shift greatly. For now, Harris remains the favorite to be sworn in as No. 47 in January 2025.