Joe Biden, Leading Big In Polls, Is Now Even With Donald Trump In Election Betting Markets

Posted By Chops on June 2, 2020 - Last Updated on June 4, 2020

Primaries and presidential politics in general hit the pause button during the coronavirus pandemic. However, as the nation heads into summer, the election race is heating up again. What has changed over the past couple of months when it comes to 2020 presidential election odds?

Here is a look.

Biden leads in the polls …

According to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by 10 percentage points (53-43%) among registered voters nationally.

Before the coronavirus pandemic and George Floyd riots, the two presumptive nominees were dead even in polling. More troubling though for President Trump is unemployment figures and a struggling economy.

It’s rare for incumbent Presidents to lose re-election. In modern politics, a failed re-election campaign only happens in down economic times.

… and has closed the gap in election betting markets

Despite both public sentiment and economic indicators heavily against him, Donald Trump is still an ever-so-slight oddsmakers’ favorite to win re-election.

“The Donald” is even-money or -110 among bookmakers. Biden is even-money or +110 in most sportsbooks with election odds. Two weeks ago, Trump was -120 at several books while Biden offered longer odds at +130.

Oddsmakers are likely counting on an economic rebound as the country re-opens post-COVID. Any improvement in unemployment, stock, or economic data would improve Trump’s chances of re-election. If there is a second wave of coronavirus cases in the US though, Biden stands to benefit from what would surely be a frustrated electorate.

Update: Joe Biden has become the betting favorite since this article was published, moving to -110 at bet365 and Betway.

2020 U.S. election odds (as of Thursday, June 4)

Joe Biden (D)-225-225
Donald Trump (R)+188+150
Kamala Harris (D)N/A+10000
Mike Pence (R)N/A+20000
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Steve “Chops” Preiss has 15 years of experience in the gaming industry. Chops began writing and producing content for digital media sites during the early poker-boom years. He has twice been voted by his peers as one of the 20 Most Influential People in Poker. Chops has also written and produced segments for a primetime gaming TV show on Versus (now NBC Sports Network) and distributed a poker program to over 160M global households.

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