Joe Biden, Leading Big In Polls, Is Now Even With Donald Trump In Election Betting Markets

Written By Chops | Last Updated
Primaries and presidential politics in general hit the pause button during the coronavirus pandemic. However, as the nation heads into summer, the election race is heating up again. What has changed over the past couple of months when it comes to 2020 presidential election odds?
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Here is a look.

Biden leads in the polls …

According to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by 10 percentage points (53-43%) among registered voters nationally. Before the coronavirus pandemic and George Floyd riots, the two presumptive nominees were dead even in polling. More troubling though for President Trump is unemployment figures and a struggling economy. It’s rare for incumbent Presidents to lose re-election. In modern politics, a failed re-election campaign only happens in down economic times.

… and has closed the gap in election betting markets

Despite both public sentiment and economic indicators heavily against him, Donald Trump is still an ever-so-slight oddsmakers’ favorite to win re-election. “The Donald” is even-money or -110 among bookmakers. Biden is even-money or +110 in most sportsbooks with election odds. Two weeks ago, Trump was -120 at several books while Biden offered longer odds at +130. Oddsmakers are likely counting on an economic rebound as the country re-opens post-COVID. Any improvement in unemployment, stock, or economic data would improve Trump’s chances of re-election. If there is a second wave of coronavirus cases in the US though, Biden stands to benefit from what would surely be a frustrated electorate. Update: Joe Biden has become the betting favorite since this article was published, moving to -110 at bet365 and Betway.

2020 U.S. election odds (as of Thursday, June 4)

CandidatePredictIt Price or MarketEquivalent OddsBet365 Odds
Ron DeSantis$0.28 – Bet NOW+257+275
Donald Trump$0.27 – Bet NOW+270+275
Joe Biden$0.21 – Bet NOW+376+650
Kamala Harris$0.08 – Bet NOW+1150 +1400
Gavin Newsom$0.07 – Bet NOW+1329+1400
Pete Buttigieg$0.07 – Bet NOW+1329+2800
Mike PencePence files for President before 2023?N/A+1800
Nikki HaleyFemale President in 2024?N/A+2000
Michelle ObamaFemale President in 2024?N/A+2500
Elizabeth WarrenDem 2024 Presidential nominee?N/A+3300
Elise StefanikFemale President in 2024?N/A+4000
Hillary ClintonFemale President in 2024?N/A+4000
Mike PompeoGOP 2024 Presidential nominee?N/A+5000
AOCAOC files for President before 2024?N/A+5000
Dwayne JohnsonN/AN/A+5000
Candace OwensFemale President in 2024?N/A+5000
Ivanka TrumpGOP 2024 Presidential nominee?N/A+5000
Tucker CarlsonGOP 2024 Presidential nominee?N/A+5000
Jeff BezosN/AN/A+6000
Ted CruzGOP 2024 Presidential nominee?N/A+6600

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