Primaries and presidential politics in general hit the pause button during the coronavirus pandemic. However, as the nation heads into summer, the election race is heating up again. What has changed over the past couple of months when it comes to 2020 presidential election odds?
Here is a look.
Biden leads in the polls …
According to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by 10 percentage points (53-43%) among registered voters nationally.
Before the coronavirus pandemic and George Floyd riots, the two presumptive nominees were dead even in polling. More troubling though for President Trump is unemployment figures and a struggling economy.
It’s rare for incumbent Presidents to lose re-election. In modern politics, a failed re-election campaign only happens in down economic times.
… and has closed the gap in election betting markets
Despite both public sentiment and economic indicators heavily against him, Donald Trump is still an ever-so-slight oddsmakers’ favorite to win re-election.
“The Donald” is even-money or -110 among bookmakers. Biden is even-money or +110 in most sportsbooks with election odds. Two weeks ago, Trump was -120 at several books while Biden offered longer odds at +130.
Oddsmakers are likely counting on an economic rebound as the country re-opens post-COVID. Any improvement in unemployment, stock, or economic data would improve Trump’s chances of re-election. If there is a second wave of coronavirus cases in the US though, Biden stands to benefit from what would surely be a frustrated electorate.
Update: Joe Biden has become the betting favorite since this article was published, moving to -110 at bet365 and Betway.
2020 U.S. election odds (as of Thursday, June 4)
|Joe Biden (D)||-225||-225|
|Donald Trump (R)||+188||+150|
|Kamala Harris (D)||N/A||+10000|
|Mike Pence (R)||N/A||+20000|