Buttigieg Out, Biden Back! Major Moves In 2020 Presidential Odds Going Into Super Tuesday
We knew the South Carolina primary was Joe Biden’s last stand. However, we did not know it would alter the Democratic primary landscape is such profound ways. Joe Biden won South Carolina in convincing fashion. He added 39 delegates to his tally while securing 48% of the vote. The fallout was immediate. On Sunday, one of Biden’s prime rivals, Pete Buttigieg, bailed out of the race. That was surprising. Credit to Buttigieg’s advisors who did the math and realized that Super Tuesday would not be kind to the Mayor from South Bend, Indiana. On Monday, another potential Biden vote siphoner — Amy Klobuchar — hastily exited the race. Given that both Buttigieg and Klobuchar leaned closer to the more moderate establishment side of the party than the Bernie Sanders socialist sector, both dropouts must’ve been music to Joe Biden’s ears. Biden saw his 2020 Presidential election odds improve drastically since winning South Carolina. He’s pulled ahead at most betting sites with odds at around +300. Credit to Jimmy Vaccaro at the South Point for nailing Biden’s chances a week ago better than the overseas books where betting on politics is legal.
Shift in 2020 Presidential election oddsWith Buttigieg and Klobuchar out, Biden again is the main beneficiary. Elizabeth Warren, who yes, is still in the race, is now an impossibly long +10000 to be the next US President. Donald Trump continues to hold steady as the 2020 favorite. He’s now priced at -150. While Trump has proven to be totally Teflon, if you think that somehow, someway one of these scandals will eventually get him removed from office before the election — Mike Pence at +15000 might be worth a flier.
|Candidate||PredictIt Price or Market||Equivalent Odds||Bet365 Odds|
|Ron DeSantis||$0.28 – Bet NOW||+257||+275|
|Donald Trump||$0.27 – Bet NOW||+270||+275|
|Joe Biden||$0.21 – Bet NOW||+376||+650|
|Kamala Harris||$0.08 – Bet NOW||+1150||+1400|
|Gavin Newsom||$0.07 – Bet NOW||+1329||+1400|
|Pete Buttigieg||$0.07 – Bet NOW||+1329||+2800|
|Mike Pence||Pence files for President before 2023?||N/A||+1800|
|Nikki Haley||Female President in 2024?||N/A||+2000|
|Michelle Obama||Female President in 2024?||N/A||+2500|
|Elizabeth Warren||Dem 2024 Presidential nominee?||N/A||+3300|
|Elise Stefanik||Female President in 2024?||N/A||+4000|
|Hillary Clinton||Female President in 2024?||N/A||+4000|
|Mike Pompeo||GOP 2024 Presidential nominee?||N/A||+5000|
|AOC||AOC files for President before 2024?||N/A||+5000|
|Candace Owens||Female President in 2024?||N/A||+5000|
|Ivanka Trump||GOP 2024 Presidential nominee?||N/A||+5000|
|Tucker Carlson||GOP 2024 Presidential nominee?||N/A||+5000|
|Ted Cruz||GOP 2024 Presidential nominee?||N/A||+6600|
Super TuesdayThe next shift in election odds will come Tuesday, March 3. Super Tuesday has 14 primaries (Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, and Vermont). If you’re a true political junkie, American Samoa also holds its caucus. A total of 1,357 delegates will be up for grabs. That’s easily the most of any date on the primary/caucus calendar–totaling almost 40% of all delegates available. It’s partly why Michael Bloomberg entirely focused his entrance strategy on Super Tuesday. It was a flawed strategy from the get-go. If Rudy Giuliani’s tragically inept 2008 campaign taught us anything, it was that the early states matter. While Biden is bucking conventional wisdom by performing poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire and then going on a likely run — at least he didn’t flat out ignore those states. By doing so, Bloomberg kept himself out of the conversation and media spotlight. He’s not favored to win any Super Tuesday state. Joe Biden is though. The former Veep is likely to win 7 of the 14. Sanders will likely win the other 7. Each will claim victory with one major prize (Sanders will get California, and Biden will get Texas).
So they may end up more or less chopping those 1,357 delegates. A Democratic candidate needs 1,991 to earn his/her party nomination.
And that’s where things get sticky.