ELEAGUE Week 5: Viewing And Betting Rise And Fall In Concert

Posted By Will Green on June 28, 2016 - Last Updated on January 22, 2018

[toc]Counter-Strike: Global Offensive bettors wagered roughly $9.36 million worth of skins on the 15 matches comprising Week 5 of ELEAGUE action, pushing estimates of the league’s ongoing total skin betting handle to more than $42 million.

Higher averages, lower extremes

The Group E final this past Friday between Natus Vincere and FlipSid3 didn’t draw a particularly high betting volume—more than 25,000 people wagered 93,105 skins on CS:GO Lounge for the final.

That number actually constituted the second-lowest amount of skins wagered for any group final. The heavily favored Natus won the match, paying out at 1.2 to 1.

In contrast the group play, which also included veteran squad mousesports and American upstart EchoFox, received a robust amount of betting activity throughout the course of the week, specifically on the earlier round robin matches.

The average total of skins wagered on June 21 and June 22 one-game matches on the lounge was 63,360, a figure that easily eclipsed any other week’s round robin skins-bet average.

The June 21 match between Na’Vi and EchoFox, for example, accounted for the second-largest total of skins bet (95,443) on any round robin match in ELEAGUE history.

The average amount of skins wagered per match on the lounge during the entirety of Week 5 nearly reached 64,000, also the highest average of any week of ELEAGUE competition so far.

ELEAGUE: Skin Betting Averages

MonthTotal HandleTotal Revenue/HoldHold %Story
June 2018$16.4 million$3.5 million21.3%Legal Sports Report
July 2018$40.7 million$3.8 million9.3%Legal Sports Report
August 2018$95.6 million$9.2 million9.6%Legal Sports Report
September 2018$184 million$23.9 million13.0%Legal Sports Report
October 2018$260.7 million$11.7 million4.5%Legal Sports Report
November 2018$330 million$21.2 million7.4%Legal Sports Report
December 2018$319 million$20.8 million6.5%Legal Sports Report
January 2019$385 million$18.8 million4.9%Legal Sports Report
February 2019$320.4 million$12.8 million4.0%Legal Sports Report
March 2019$372.5 million$31.7 million8.5%Legal Sports Report
April 2019$313.8 million$21.2 million6.8%Legal Sports Report
May 2019$318.9 million$15.5 million4.9%Legal Sports Report
June 2019$273.2 million$9.7 million3.6%Legal Sports Report
July 2019$251.4 million$17.9 million7.1%Legal Sports Report
August 2019$293.6 million$25.2 million8.6%Legal Sports Report
September 2019$445.6 million$37.9 million8.5%Legal Sports Report
October 2019$487.9 million$46.4 million9.5%Legal Sports Report
November 2019$562.7 million$32.9 million5.9%Legal Sports Report
December 2019$557.8 million$29.4 million5.3%Legal Sports Report
January 2020$540.1 million$53.6 million9.9%Legal Sports Report
February 2020$494.8 million$17.0 million3.4%Legal Sports Report

Skin wagering on CS:GO gambling sites is expected to produce a global handle of $7.42 billion in 2016, according to research from Narus Advisors and Eilers & Krejcik Gaming.

An ESBR analysis sampling 200,000 items found that the average value of a skin wagered on the Lounge is $9.75. That figure, multiplied by the total amount of skins wagered, gives us an approximation of the betting handle on a given match.

TBS viewership proportional to wagering activity

For the fifth consecutive week, the volume of ELEAGUE skin betting on group finals matches appeared to behave proportionately to television viewership, reinforcing the idea that viewership and betting volumes are directly linked.

TBS’ cable airing of Friday’s group final reached 244,000 viewers. That number dropped 11 percent from Week 4’s 276,000, a figure that itself marked a sharp increase from disastrous Week 3 ratings.

Just as the amount of TBS viewers dropped week-over-week, the amount of total skins wagered on Friday’s match also dropped by 19 percent week-over-week. Somewhere between .38 to .49 skins have been wagered on a group final match for every TBS viewer watching:

ELEAGUE: Viewers vs Skins Wagered

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Average concurrent viewership on Twitch for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday matches continued its trend of outperforming that of Friday matches. Average ELEAGUE viewership on the casting giant averaged more than 50,000 people on June 21, the same day of the highly bet Na’Vi-EchoFox match.

That same viewership figure was close to 46,000 on June 22, and reached just over 42,000 on June 23, according to Twitch’s API. June 24’s Friday night average concurrent viewership on Twitch, however, amounted to roughly 17,000 people.

What’s next?

While American viewership of Friday’s Group F final on TBS might take a bit of hit due to people traveling for the Fourth of July Weekend, all signs point to a strong week of betting to wrap up the ELEAGUE’s group stage in Week 6.

Well-established Russian squad Virtus.Pro will lead Group F. The team just won the StarLadder iLeague Invitational and is responsible three of the largest skin betting handles on CS:GO Lounge in the past six months, all eclipsing 200,000 skins wagered.

Team EnVyUs, meanwhile, could provide strong competition on the other side of the group, as they’re coming off a win earlier this year at Season One of the Global eSports Cup, and has had five recent matches with handles on the lounge exceeding 150,000 skins.

Image credit: ELEAGUE Media gallery.

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