Early NFL Win Totals: Betting Value On Atlanta Falcons Over?
Most football betting discourse might revolve around NFL draft odds, but it's never too early to start looking at NFL win totals. Many bettors dislike tying up money for this long, which is understandable, but at the least, it's interesting to get an early look at the NFL wins landscape for the coming season.
We'll examine NFL win totals as of early April, meaning these are the market numbers after the meat of free agency but before the draft. We also don't have full schedules yet, only lists of opponents for each team. Still, we'll see if any possible early value is worth sniping.
Find a complete list of opening win totals here. Remember that bettors can start perusing alternate numbers that frequently have more value than the base numbers later in the offseason.
2025 NFL Win TOtals
Click any odds below to wager at betting apps in your area.
[metabet_core_side_odds_tile query="fbp/nfl_season_wins" size="100%x250" site_id="thelines"]
Possible Early NFL Win TOtals Value
Atlanta Falcons Over
Atlanta was a team that carried a fair amount of hype into the 2024 season. Given how poor their QB play had been the year prior, many theorized that Kirk Cousins was the missing piece, and the Falcons entered the season favored to win the division.
Unfortunately for everyone involved, Cousins didn't look like his old self in trying to return from serious injury. The undermanned defense predictably finished 26th in DVOA, but the offense didn't do enough to pick up the slack.
Still, it wasn't all bad. Most encouragingly, first-round QB Michael Penix Jr. took the reins late in the season. While he fell short of leading a playoff charge, Penix Jr. certainly didn't embarrass himself. He showed off his rocket arm in some big games down the stretch, notably in a tight OT loss to Washington.
If one widens the playing time filter, he lands 18th in the EPA+CPOE composite, certainly a promising result for a rookie (even an older one). QBs ranked behind him include Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott, and Aaron Rodgers.
The offense remains loaded, and the division is easy. Drawing the NFC West isn't ideal, but the Patriots, Jets, and Colts should all be quite beatable.
If the Falcons can do anything in the draft to shore up the front line of the defense, they'll have a dark horse case in the NFC.
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New Orleans Saints Under
This one is a bit related to the Falcons over. If I'm bullish on the Falcons, it's only natural to be at least a little bearish on some division rivals.
Last year, I was the low man on the Saints. If anything happened to Derek Carr, I saw an aging roster with a low floor. Sure enough, Carr got hurt, and everything fell apart.
Many of the same weaknesses remain.
The offensive line still projects as one of the NFL's worst. That isn't the sort of unit you want playing in front of an immobile statue like Carr. And the backups are still Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener. That's probably one of the worst tandems any team has behind its starter.
Age and injuries remain significant risk factors. Demario Davis, Cameron Jordan, Tyrann Mathieu, and Alvin Kamara are all key contributors in their decline phases. Chris Olave might be one concussion from calling it a career.
A new and utterly unproven head coach takes over in Kellen Moore.
Once again, I think this team has a very low floor. I'll be looking for alts here.
[metabet_core_side_odds_tile query="fbp/new_orleans_saints" size="100%x250" site_id="thelines"]
Seattle Seahawks Under
The Seahawks catch a nice break in the scheduling department as they draw probably the two easiest divisions, the NFC South and AFC South.
Still, the difficulty of the division balances that out. The Rams are loading up and going for it after adding Davante Adams. The 49ers should bounce back to some degree after an uncharacteristically awful season. Arizona has continued to slowly improve its roster over the past couple of years. The market expects another respectable season from them.
I believe in the coaching staff and the vision here. Seattle had a top-five defense in the second half of the season. Coach Mike Macdonald's pedigree speaks for itself after his tremendous work in Baltimore.
The QB and the offensive line combo have me leery here.
Sam Darnold never looked like a viable NFL quarterback until he moved to Minnesota, where he had pristine surroundings, an elite set of weapons, and a top-flight play-caller. Now, he is in a far less comfortable situation.
Seattle's offensive line, specifically the interior, has been a problem for years. Right tackle Abraham Lucas also can't stay healthy. Geno Smith was able to make it work because he doesn't care about pressure at this point of his career, but I don't have any confidence that Darnold can do the same. As soon as Smith got hurt last year against Green Bay, the offense collapsed when a lesser quarterback had to deal with the pressure that line allows.
I'm also not sold on their wideouts with two pure slot receivers in Cooper Kupp and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
I think the QB move was a downgrade here, and we see some significant regression from Darnold. Seattle, to finish last in the division, might make it onto my futures card.
[metabet_core_side_odds_tile query="fbp/seattle_seahawks" size="100%x250" site_id="thelines"]
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