2023 Super Bowl odds are available now at all sportsbooks. As part of TheLines.com’s Super Bowl props coverage, we’ll look at Eagles Super Bowl props for Philadelphia’s top-three wide receivers – A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith and Quez Watkins.
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Receiving Yards: O/U /
Brown’s receiving yards have been unimpressive during his two playoff contests. This is a direct result of the Eagles blowing out their playoff opponents. Jalen Hurts hasn’t been forced to throw the ball at all this postseason. In the Eagles dominant divisional-round win, Hurts only threw the ball seven times in the second half. Championship Sunday went no different for the Eagles aerial attack. It’s safe to assume that Philadelphia will be forced to dial up a few more pass plays on Super Bowl Sunday.
Let us dive into the micro matchup for Philadelphia’s passing game against the Chiefs pass defense. No defense is impacted more than the Chiefs as to whether they put pressure on the QB against the pass. When the Chiefs get pressure on the opposing QB, they allow the sixth-lowest completion rate in the league at 42% and a league-low 3.6 yards per pass attempt. When the Chiefs don’t get pressure on the opposing QB, they allow a league-high 74.7% completion rate, 7.8 yards per pass attempt, and a 5.5% TD rate (30th in the NFL).
Since getting back All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (who is still playing with a torn groin), the Eagles are producing more than seven yards per dropback and a 5.5% td rate compared to 2.2% with Lane off the field. It will be hard to imagine the Chiefs getting pressure against this stout offensive line in this game. In Brown’s last six games to end the regular season, he averaged more than 110 receiving yards per contest.
Receptions: O/U /
This prop comes down to whether you think the Eagles will exceed their expected pass-play volume. We have seen all year the Eagles pump the breaks on throwing the ball and instead just run the ball down opponents’ throats. Brown had two quick targets on the first drive of the NFC Championship Game, catching both. If Kansas City can keep this game close, Brown has a great chance of going over this number.
The Eagles will need to get Brown involved in this game. Brown hasn’t scored a touchdown in three straight games. Hurts will look his way in the red zone as the Chiefs will be selling out to stop the running game of Philadelphia. Kansas City has been getting torched by enemy WR1s this year. No team has allowed more receiving touchdowns to opposing WR1s than the Chiefs.
Hurts also missed a wide open Brown in both the Divisional round and NFC Championship in the endzone.
Receiving Yards: O/U /
Smith entered last week having earned eight targets or more in 10 straight games. That streak ended on Championship Sunday, as Philadelphia didn’t have to throw the ball in a blowout victory. There is a legitimate case to be made that Smith is the No. 1 receiver in this offense. At worst, we should call this a 1A + 1B tandem with teammate A.J. Brown. If we can figure out who is the genuine No. 1 receiver in this offense, it can go a long way in predicting which Eagles receiver might have a big Super Bowl performance.
Looking at targets alone over the Eagles last five games, Smith has out-targeted Brown 46 to 41. Kansas City conceded the second-most TDs to all WRs during the regular season. If we consider Smith a No. 2 WR, the Chiefs have been quite good against WR2s this season. According to Football Outsiders, they rank No. 10 there, holding the opposition to -11.6% DVOA.
Receptions: O/U /
Throwing out last week’s blow-out victory, Smith had 5+ receptions in seven straight games. When Jalen Hurts throws the ball, the target will likely go to Smith or Brown. The Eagles throw the ball at the highest rate in the league to their WRs. Smith is a big part of the Philadelphia offense and has at least eight targets in 12 games during the regular season.
The case to be made against Smith is his two highest-target totals came with Gardner Minshew under center. With Jalen Hurts at QB, Smith failed to catch six passes in four consecutive games before reaching that total in consecutive contests against the Giants. Looking at his seasonal stats, Smith produced five more total catches than Brown on eight fewer targets.
Including the playoffs, Smith has recorded eight touchdown receptions this season. I am betting on Smith to win here in vertical one-on-ones. In the red zone opportunities where the Eagles can deploy the wide receiver as a target on Run Pass Option (RPO) concepts, a slant or screen can easily be manufactured for Smith.
Receiving Yards: O/U /
In close games this season of seven points or less, Quez runs a significantly higher percentage of routes leading to more potential targets and yards. The Super Bowl has just a 1.5-point spread, and we can confidently make a case for the Eagles to throw more than they had to the last two weeks.
Watkins runs the most slot routes among the Eagles WR core at 75.9%. What is noteworthy is that Kansas City has been a good matchup for opposing slot WRs. The Chiefs were 29th in TD rate to slot receivers during the regular season. Slot WR Christian Kirk gave the Chiefs secondary fits in both matchups against them this year. Bengals slot WR Tyler Boyd was on his way to a big game last week until he ultimately got hurt. The speedster surpassed this receiving yards line in ten games this year.
As mentioned earlier, the Chiefs surrendered the second-most touchdowns to opposing wide receivers in the regular season (20). We saw Tee Higgins catch a long touchdown against this secondary last week. The way Quez can find the end zone in this matchup would be via the deep ball. Watkins has the highest rate of his targets via the deep ball on the Eagles roster. With only three touchdowns on the year, it’s not likely to happen but would not surprise me if it were.
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