Five months have passed and the 2022-23 NFL season has come to its finale. Philadelphia and Kansas City will square off Feb. 12 in Arizona, with Eagles vs. Chiefs odds showing Philly as a small favorite in Super Bowl 57. As everyone prepares to watch — and potentially bet on — the big game, TheLines dives into Super Bowl matchups and key stats that may hint at what we’ll see on Sunday.
In this article, we’ll take a look at how the Eagles offense matches up against the Chiefs defense. For a look at the KC O vs. Philly D, check out our other Super Bowl preview here.
Eagles vs. Chiefs Odds: Moneyline, Spread, Total
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Statistical Super Bowl Matchup, Eagles Offense Vs. Chiefs Defense
Basic Stats
| Eagles Offense | Stats (Rank) | Chiefs Defense |
|---|---|---|
| 28.7 (1) | Points/Gm | 21.5 (15) |
| 0.432 (2) | Points/Play | 0.336 (13) |
| 384.2 (3) | Yards/Gm | 328.3 (10) |
| 230.2 (12) | Pass Yards/Gm | 221 (19) |
| 153.9 (4) | Rush Yards/Gm | 107.3 (8) |
| 5.8 (6) | Yards/Play | 5.1 (9) |
| 7.5 (3) | Yards/Pass | 6 (6) |
| 4.6 (11) | Yards/Rush | 4.5 (19) |
| 46.61% (4) | 3rd Down % | 39.36% (17) |
| 68.57% (3) | Red Zone % | 65.57% (30) |
| 1 (3) | Turnovers/Game | 1.3 (19) |
| 7.29% (21) | Sack Rate | 8.15% (5) |
Advanced Stats
| Philadelphia Eagles Offense | Stats (Rank) | Kansas City Chiefs Defense |
|---|---|---|
| +15.4% (1) | Rush DVOA | -6.9% (15) |
| +23.9% (9) | Pass DVOA | +6.5% (20) |
| +0.072 (1) | Rush EPA/Play | -0.076 (16) |
| +0.121 (7) | Pass EPA/Play | +0.036 (16) |
How This Super Bowl Matchup Might Play Out
Up front, we’ll see perhaps the most key battleground of the entire Super Bowl. The Chiefs do not have an especially strong run defense, nor is their secondary known for its lockdown coverage. What they do have, and what has helped power them to many a win in a big spot over recent seasons, is a strong pass rush.
As one can see above, the Chiefs rank fifth in sack rate. Additionally, Football Outsiders gives them even more credit with a third-place ranking in adjusted sack rate.
Unlike most teams, though, the Chiefs’ pass rush starts on the inside, with Chris Jones the main threat. Don’t be fooled by the talking points about Jones collecting his first playoff sacks against the Bengals. He has been a dominant playoff force and was arguably the best player on the field in the Chiefs’ Super Bowl win over the 49ers.
The rest of the pass rush has basically been an egalitarian effort; although, Frank Clark has been a bit better this year on the edge after taking a pay cut.
There’s no obvious weak point for the Chiefs to attack here, as the Eagles are strong across the entire offensive line. A potential weak point did open up if Eagles guard Landon Dickerson, who hyperextended his elbow, ends up limited or ineffective.
Hurts Under Pressure
What makes this so key is Eagles QB Jalen Hurts’ struggles under pressure. According to PFF, Hurts’ passer rating plunges from 112.2 to 66.8 when pressured. He possesses well below average arm strength, so it makes sense that he struggles throwing off-platform and on the run.
But, the Chiefs can’t simply load up on blitzes and call it a day. Because the Philly offensive line is so good, Hurts has barely seen his effectiveness budge against the blitz.
After starting the year among the league leaders in blitzing, the Chiefs have dialed it back and wound up ranking 14th. That likely owes to the realization their young defensive backfield — four rookies may see significant time in the Super Bowl — needed more help than heavy blitzing allowed.
They’ll probably have to remain judicious here, especially with Hurts still seemingly not 100% after injuring his shoulder. He just hasn’t looked the same since his return in the regular season finale. Since returning, his Success Rate (~42%) would have ranked outside the top 25 QBs in the regular season, and he has a Completion Percent Over Expectation of -3%.
A final consideration is that the Chiefs’ best blitzer might be Willie Gay Jr. However, he might be needed in coverage, where he’s also solid, to help contain Dallas Goedert.
The Running Game
Dropping back and playing more zone would also help the Chiefs greatly in containing Jalen Hurts as a rushing threat.
According to data from The 33rd Team, Hurts has similar passing averages versus both man and zone defensive concepts. However, he does far more damage running against man — 9.5 YPA, way up from 5.8 versus zone. That should come as no surprise since the mechanics of zone usually allow more eyes on the QB.
The Eagles had the most effective rushing attack in the NFL, and it certainly wasn’t all due to Hurts. Their tremendous blocking earned a sixth-place ranking in adjusted line yards. And teams have hurt the Chiefs at times on the ground, with the Bengals (in the regular season) and Raiders rushing for large totals.
On The Edges
This is another area in which the Eagles figure to make some hay. Again, the Chiefs have a staggering four rookies getting significant burn in the secondary. Two of those (Joshua Williams and Jaylen Watson) were later-round picks who came in with little to no fanfare.
Williams was pressed into service against the Bengals after L’Jarius Sneed went down. The versatile Sneed was probably the Chiefs’ second-best player on defense this year. His status (concussion) is unknown early in the bye week, so keep an eye on that situation.
No. 1 receivers have done huge damage against the Chiefs this year. Luckily for the Eagles, they have an ace there in AJ Brown. He should feast in theory against a unit that ranked 31st against WR1s, according to Football Outsiders.
The question is, can Jalen Hurts reliably deliver the ball? That’s been an issue since he got back from injury. He notably missed an open deep TD early against the 49ers.
Another weak point over recent seasons has been the Chiefs’ ability to cover receiving backs. Again, the Eagles may have just the ticket in Kenneth Gainwell to exploit that. Gainwell has been gaining snap share in the playoffs, but bettors still may find modest prop numbers on the second-year man.
Final Thoughts
For a team that won so many regular season games and was potentially on track for a 16-win season until Jalen Hurts got injured, the Eagles have a surprising amount of questions around their offense. They got basically a free pass to the Super Bowl, facing an overmatched Giants team and a 49ers team without a healthy player who could complete a forward pass.
The Hurts-AJ Brown connection that produced at such an incredible level in the regular season has been notably absent in the playoffs. Brown has managed just 50 yards on 14 targets, a horrendous 3.6 yards per target. For reference, that number was 10.3 in the regular season.
Those two likely must get on track for this game to go well for Philadelphia. While this Chiefs defense can be beaten on the ground, they will simply commit more and more resources to stopping the run if Hurts doesn’t prove he can beat them with his arm.
Can Hurts make some throws and can the Chiefs beat this stellar offensive line with their pass rush? The Eagles probably need to answer both of those questions in their favor to win. If they can’t, the Chiefs could run away with this one, as Hurts has not shown the passing chops to thrive in must-pass situations.
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