Five months have passed and the 2022-23 NFL season has come to its finale. Philadelphia and Kansas City will square off Feb. 12 in Arizona, with Eagles vs. Chiefs odds showing Philly as a small favorite in Super Bowl 57. As everyone prepares to watch — and potentially bet on — the big game, TheLines dives into Super Bowl matchups and key stats that may hint at what we’ll see on Sunday.
In this article, we’ll take a look at how the Chiefs offense matches up against the Eagles defense. For a look at the inverse matchup, check out our other Super Bowl preview here.
Eagles vs. Chiefs Odds: Moneyline, Spread, Total
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Statistical Super Bowl Matchup, Chiefs Offense Vs. Eagles Defense
Basic Stats
| Chiefs Offense | Stats (Rank) | Eagles Defense |
|---|---|---|
| 28.7 (1) | Points/Gm | 18.8 (4) |
| 0.445 (1) | Points/Play | 0.306 (5) |
| 407.9 (1) | Yards/Gm | 290.3 (1) |
| 294.5 (1) | Pass Yards/Gm | 171 (1) |
| 113.5 (21) | Rush Yards/Gm | 119.3 (15) |
| 6.3 (1) | Yards/Play | 4.7 (1) |
| 7.7 (1) | Yards/Pass | 5.4 (1) |
| 4.6 (12) | Yards/Rush | 4.6 (24) |
| 48.86% (2) | 3rd Down % | 38.11% (10) |
| 70.51% (2) | Red Zone % | 53.57% (11) |
| 1.3 (12) | Turnovers/Game | 1.6 (4) |
| 3.82% (2) | Sack Rate | 11.49% (1) |
Advanced Stats
| Kansas City Chiefs Offense | Stats (Rank) | Philadelphia Eagles Defense |
|---|---|---|
| +1.3% (9) | Rush DVOA | -1.9% (21) |
| +41.1% (1) | Pass DVOA | -15.5% (1) |
| -0.019 (10) | Rush EPA/Play | -0.023 (23) |
| +0.274 (1) | Pass EPA/Play | -0.087 (1) |
How This Super Bowl Matchup Might Play Out
Much like with their offense, everything for the Eagles defense starts up front. They have the best sack rate in the league, and the best adjusted sack rate. In fact, so dominant has this pass rush been, that the difference between the Eagles and the No. 2 ASR (Dallas), is the same as the difference between Dallas and the No. 23 ASR. This pass rush is as good as it gets.
Fortunately for the Chiefs, they’re almost equally good. Combined with the quick wits and strong decision-making of Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs allow few sacks. The line ranked first by a large margin in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate metric.
The weak link is RT Andrew Wylie. He’ll be matched up against either Josh Sweat or Haason Reddick frequently and he’ll have his hands full either way. Sweat (11 sacks, 23 QB hits) and Reddick (16 sacks, 26 QB hits) both ranked among the statistical leaders. Reddick caused total havoc in both playoff games with 3.5 sacks combined.
The Chiefs were among the most pass-happy teams in 2022. Only seven teams ran the ball less frequently. However, some balance may serve them well as the Eagles, even with their mid-season pickups of Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph, rate as a middling rush defense. Striking the right balance here could pay huge dividends, both in terms of getting the hard-running Isiah Pacheco loose against light boxes, and in protecting Mahomes from the pass rush.
Pacheco’s rushing prop (see table below) will be worth a look as a buy-low after the Bengals rendered him a non-factor on the ground.
Feasting On Soft Schedule?
Statistically speaking, the Eagles possess an elite passing defense. Whether it’s actually elite is up for some debate.
Consider the QBs that the Eagles have faced this season. In some ways, their playoff run has been a microcosm of their season. They got to play against a 49ers team lacking anyone healthy who could throw a forward pass, and Daniel Jones. Jones fairly well represents the best QBs the Eagles played. Take your pick of Aaron Rodgers (who got hurt), Trevor Lawrence, Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott. None of those strikes fear into anyone’s heart in 2022-23.
In fact, the two most recent examples of those QBs did serious damage to this defense. If you just consolidate Rodgers’ stats with backup Jordan Love as “Green Bay QB,” that player fired 8.4 YPA dropping back even accounting for sacks. In Prescott’s case, he had 7.4. Those teams scored 33 and 40 points, respectively.
Mahomes being Mahomes, and Andy Reid being Andy Reid, the Chiefs are likely set up for more success here than the stats would say. That is, unless…
Depleted WR Corps?
While on the one hand, the Chiefs finished strong with a final drive to victory against the Bengals, in at least one sense they certainly limped to the finish line. Rest assured that throwing to Marcus Kemp was not likely in Reid’s plans for the offense, but such is life when you lose the following players:
- Mecole Hardman (hip)
- JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee)
- Kadarius Toney (ankle)
The Chiefs lost three of their top four WRs, excepting Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who wound up having a monster game. One could charitably call him inconsistent, though. Of course, the Chiefs do possess ace TE Travis Kelce, who put up WR1 numbers.
If anyone can figure out how to win a Super Bowl with one great pass catcher and one decent one, it’s Reid and Mahomes. But, this is a situation bettors should track as Feb. 12 draws nearer. None of these injuries looked serious. But, if multiple WRs remain out, that could create a precarious situation for the Chiefs offense.
The Eagles have a solid secondary, but the Cowboys showed it’s quite beatable. The safeties in particular have been targets at times, and Avonte Maddox in the slot has not always been good. Even Darius Slay isn’t the dominator he once was, slowing down at age 32.
TJ Edwards is a coverage ace at LB. But, even he seems unlikely to have a prayer at covering Kelce one-on-one. The Eagles would love to dedicate extra resources to that, which will be easier if the Chiefs WRs don’t get healthy.
Final Thoughts
Against a defense that had many of the same pieces last season, the Chiefs absolutely shredded the Eagles. In a 42-point bonanza, Mahomes fired 5 TDs en route to a 92.4 QBR. The rub is that Tyreek Hill did a huge chunk of that damage with 186 yards.
But, Reid and Offensive Coordinator Eric Bieniemy do seem to have a solid plan for attacking this defense. The pressure is definitely on those two to find the right balance of running and putting the game in Mahomes’ hands.
Mahomes looks to be at the peak of his mental powers right now, making sound decision after sound decision. As long as the Chiefs get most or all of their receivers to full strength, he should find some pass catchers. Between Pacheco hammering a mediocre run defense and Mahomes being superhuman, the Chiefs should move the ball plenty in this game.
Where Mahomes’ mobility could come into question is if tackles Orlando Brown and Andrew Wylie struggle with the Eagles’ fearsome rush. We’ve already seen the Chiefs offense crumble to dust in one Super Bowl under an avalanche of pressure. But, that offensive line does not remotely resemble this one. It would likely take total domination up front by the Eagles to keep the Chiefs under 20 here.
Super Bowl LVII Player Props
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