Dutch Grand Prix Odds: Can Max Verstappen Win His Home Race?

Lando Norris’ title charge starts this week at Max Verstappen’s home race. The Dutch Grand Prix hasn’t in modern times ever been won by anyone other than the Dutchman. That said, the track isn’t the most favorable to Red Bull. With title fight hopes in the air, the Dutch Grand Prix odds are really a four-way race.

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Dutch Grand Prix Odds

Dutch Grand Prix Odds: Track History

Zandvoort has produced three Red Bull wins in three modern races, but all three have been different. 2021 was a relatively boring close fight between Lewis Hamilton and Max, born out of the Red Bull having been more recently upgraded. In 2022, an ill-timed red flag in Qualifying and a VSC in the race screwed Mercedes out of a proper fight, while 2023 was a wet weather disaster. That said, Zandvoort is a track that shares some characteristics we can draw from.

In 2022, when Mercedes were definitely off the pace, two of their best tracks were Zandvoort and Hungary. If not for the VSC and then safety car in 2022, Mercedes would have had double podiums at both races. In 2023, that held, with Lewis on the pole in Budapest and George Russell on the front row in Zandvoort. Zandvoort and Hungary both share slow corners and minimal straights and don’t reward power in the same way that other tracks do. In other words, this is a Red Bull fade.

Dutch Grand Prix Odds: Qualifying

Max Verstappen has been on pole all three years in Zandvoort, but the interesting problem of Red Bull recently is a better Saturday pace than Sunday. While their struggles with race pace in Belgium could be attributed to dirty air, Max got caught by Lando in Austria despite a dominant qualifying pace advantage. Max wasn’t able to build a gap on a slower Ferrari in Hungary, and outside of the dry last stint in Silverstone, Max’s rapid race pace has been gone for months now. (And even in Britain, the McLaren seemed more set up for the wet than the dry.)

I’m betting that on a track where it’s not particularly easy to overtake; Max will stick with a qualifying-above-all-else setup. Given that, he’s my bet for Pole.

Other Qualifying Bets

George put it on the front row here last year. The Mercedes has generally gone well around here even in this regulations environment where they have struggled for pace. The other reason I’m trusting George is that he’s generally come out from Summer Break well. He put a Williams on the front row in Spa in 2021 and his Mercedes on the front row in 2023 after a horrendous first half of the year. A Top 3 in qualifying seems easy for someone who’s tied for the most non-Max pole positions this year.

Logan Sargeant made Q3 last year here. His price to make Q2 is, therefore, offensive. I’m taking advantage.

Pierre Gasly to make Q3 and Pierre Gasly Winner Without Merc, Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren, Aston Martin are two ways I’m betting the Frenchman this weekend. Gasly made the podium here last year in an Alpine and came 4th in qualifying in 2021 in an Alpha Tauri. He’s clearly got a sense for this track.

Dutch Grand Prix Odds: Race

Winner

Lando Norris really, absolutely better win this race.

There can be no excuse this time. The summer break came at a very needed time for the Brit, who threw away wins in Spain and Hungary by botching the start from Pole position. His inability to drive cleanly wheel to wheel forced a DNF instead of a win in Austria. A terrible, cautious start in Belgium led him to drop points to his title rival, who took an engine penalty that week. He has had the fastest car for 9 races. He’s yet to win a second race, and his only win required a perfectly timed safety car. He better win.

I am no fan of Lando’s (you’re shocked, I know), but the McLaren destroyed everybody at Hungary. Hungary suggests they traded some high-speed corner pace to fix their problems in the slow corners, which will help immensely here. Lando has the fastest car. He’s just had a summer break to get whatever mental blocks out of the way after that string of bad performances. This has to be his time. If he can’t win this race, every line of Lando propaganda should be put to rest forever.

Podium Bets

This should be a McLaren double podium. Oscar Piastri seems to have meaningfully fixed his tyre management issues, and he doesn’t have a broken rib anymore. I don’t think he can keep up with Lando assuming Norris doesn’t screw up the start (again), but this should be a good enough track for McLaren that they get both drivers on the podium.

The last spot is theoretically between Max, Lewis, George, and the Ferraris. I’m aware Ferrari is bringing an upgrade package, but the track doesn’t suit them anyway, and I don’t trust Ferrari’s ability to develop in season at this point. As weird as it is to say it, I think Max is out, too – the Red Bull is too stiff and too bad on corners and on curbs. So it’s one of the Mercs.

You can make the case for flipping a coin here, but George Russell is my bet. I think he’s gonna qualify well, he’s going to want revenge for his (rightful) disqualification in Spa, and at this point in the season Mercedes will be prioritizing him in development. He is, after all, the driver who’s staying. I wouldn’t be shocked by a Lewis podium, but he did go out in Q2 last year – Zandvoort isn’t the happiest place for him.

Best Of The Rest

Pierre Gasly points is an entirely correlated bet to Gasly making Q3. He also managed to drag the absolute tractor that was the 2022 Alpha Tauri to 11th here, so his abilities extend to race distance.

Best of luck with the Dutch Grand Prix Odds!