It’s that time of the year! A time to SMH and LMFAO at some dumb Super Bowl trends.
Teams wearing silver pants and have navy in their color scheme have won nine of the past 30 Super Bowls. Time to put those Dallas Cowboys futures in for next season!
No sporting event offers a wider array of betting options like Super Bowl 56. From the coin toss to the Gatorade dump, there’s props for literally everything surrounding the Big Game. Over/under on the National Anthem, anyone? Super Bowl trends are fun to read on, but are dangerous when considering sides to bet on.
Below, we’ll lay out the dumbest Super Bowl trends to ignore in Super Bowl LVI.
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Super Bowl Trends – The Dumb Ones
Teams Wearing This Color Win More
If you were reading this article’s lede and thinking to yourself, The Patriots wear silver helmets and have navy in their colors, then you saw right through the trend. The uniform color scheme had as much to do with the Super Bowl victory as you or I did.
So, when it’s revealed that the home team is wearing red– and teams wearing red have covered the spread in the last two Super Bowls– you can dismiss it.
Favorites Are 12-5 In Super Bowls Played In Florida
Aside from Tampa Bay playing a literal home game last Super Bowl, what does the state location or stadium have to do with Super Bowl outcomes?
Weather could be a factor, but a championship hasn’t been played in the north outdoors since 2014 (New York, where it was over 50º at kickoff) and hasn’t been played in the cold since Super Bowl VI (which was still 39º and played in New Orleans).
Unless the team playing in the Super Bowl is playing in their home stadium– which has happened once– the stadium makes no difference. Weather, however, is worth noting for your game analysis, but Sofi Stadium for Super Bowl LVI is a dome.
The Last X Coin Tosses Have Been Tails
This one is the most frustrating because this is a base math concept from elementary school. You know the exercise: the more times you flip a coin, the closer to a 50/50 split you get. Doesn’t matter if the coin has landed tails-up the last 100 years running (“tails never fails”), the mathematic probability of a coin toss is 50/50. Every time. End of discussion.
The Last X Teams That Called Tails Won The Super Bowl
Super Bowl Trends – The Tempting Ones To Still Ignore
The trends listed below are taken from an article published by ESPN last year, “Notable Super Bowl betting trends to know.” Let’s shoot some holes in that article and turn it into Swiss cheese.
The Last X Super Bowls Have Gone Under The Total
The biggest takeaway from trends that deal with “the last X Super Bowls…” is that those have no affect on this current one. Even if it’s the same two teams, last year’s outcome has no influence on this year’s. It’s a difficult thing to sort out, but an important one.
Last year, the Kansas City Chiefs lost 31-9 because their offensive line was battered and was bullied all game long. This offseason, the Chiefs spent nearly $86 million to fix that.
Going back too far, these trends become even more convoluted. What does the 2019 Super Bowl have to do with today? Neither of the starting quarterbacks are even on those teams. Be cautious with trends that deal with past Super Bowls.
AFC Teams Have Covered Five Of The Last Seven Super Bowls
You know who was involved in three of those five covers? Tom Brady. What conference is Tom Brady in now? The NFC. Scrap this one.
To reiterate the past advice of every trend above here on this list: Take every matchup in its own yearly vacuum. Analyze each matchup and the team’s capabilities without the outside influences of years beyond this one.
Higher Playoff Seeds Are 2-15-2 Against The Spread In The Last 25 Super Bowls
This one isn’t overtly dumb. In fact, it’s kind of interesting. However, taking into context why these teams are seeded is important. Let’s take a look at Super Bowl outcomes and seeds of the past few:
- (1) Kansas City Chiefs vs. (5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- (1) San Francisco 49ers vs. (2) Kansas City Chiefs
- (2) New England Patriots vs. (2) Los Angeles Rams
- (1) Philadelphia Eagles vs. (1) New England Patriots
- (1) New England Patriots vs. (2) Atlanta Falcons
The one notable lower seed is the Buccaneers (fifth), who upended the top-seeded Chiefs. Multiple factors led to the Bucs clinching the fifth seed and not higher: it was the first year with Tom Brady leading the offense. After a 3-4 stretch against three of the top-four seeded teams in the playoffs, Tampa Bay won eight straight, including the Super Bowl.
The other seeding differentials aren’t correlated for a few reasons. First, they’re usually pretty close (a matter of one vs. two), so it’s not like the 2008 New York Giants are winning every Super Bowl over the 17-0 Patriots. Second, seeding is separated between the AFC and NFC. In this year’s playoffs, the NFC’s fourth seed– the Los Angeles Rams– would be tied for the best record in the AFC.
Super Bowl Trends – The Important Ones
Note: This isn’t an exhaustive list, rather a couple trends that are often repeated that do hold some form of value.
Super Bowl Favorites Are 34-20 SU, But 25-26-3 ATS
Why is this trend worth noting when other historic trends aren’t?
This indicates that Super Bowl favorites are typically overvalued. Watch for lines that favor exciting star players against aggressive and effective pass rushes (i.e. 2020 Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs were -3 favorites, 2015 Cam Newton and the Panthers were -5 favorites).
The straight up record vs. the spread record indicate that these teams aren’t losing outright, but their number might be a bit optimistic.
Any Statistical Trend Over The Duration Of The Playoffs/Recent Play
In last year’s Super Bowl, the Buccaneers had an implied team total of 26.5 while the Chiefs had one of 29.5. However, Tampa’s offense began firing on all cylinders well before Super Bowl LV.
Since Week 15, the Bucs scored at least 30 in every game and didn’t allow an opponent to go over 28 once. On the flip side, the Chiefs had just one game under Mahomes decided by more than a single score (the AFC Championship vs. the Bills). One team was surging, the other team was sliding. But the season-long metrics didn’t paint the same picture.
Use snapshots of the season rather than season-long numbers. Even with advanced season-long metrics like EPA and DVOA, it’s important to see recent performance and available personnel.