Eagles Vs. Chiefs Odds: 9 Dumb Super Bowl 59 Betting Trends To Ignore
Did you know the AFC is 14-8 outright among historical Super Bowl odds, as long as it's played in February, or that the AFC is 4-1 against the spread when an underdog? Teams wearing white are 37-21 all-time in Super Bowls, too. So, all of these trends point to the Chiefs winning handily, right? I’m gonna stop you there. These Super Bowl trends are dumb.
While there are fun coincidences to dissect, most Super Bowl trends should be ignored. Below, I've dug up nine dumb trends you should throw out on Super Bowl Sunday.
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6 Dumb Super Bowl Trends To Ignore
1. The AFC Is 14-8 in Super Bowls Played In February
Months and timing hold no predictive value as long as Super Bowls are played indoors. This year, Super Bowl 59 is played indoors at Caesars Superdome. The next time the NFL hosts its championship game outdoors in a northern climate, we can talk weather and timing. But in every other instance, the exact month doesn't matter.
2. Teams Wearing White Hold An Advantage
I took this one straight from a headline. Usually, Super Bowl uniform color trends boil down to one thing — the same two teams won most of the Super Bowls in the last two-plus decades. In this case, teams wearing white holding an advantage is entirely random.
Uniforms are chosen by the "home" team, which alternates between the AFC and NFC from year to year. It's a literal coin flip.
Speaking of ...
3. The Last X Coin Tosses Have Been Tails
This one is the most frustrating because this is the most basic math concept from elementary school. You know the exercise: the more times you flip a coin, the closer to a 50/50 split you get. It doesn't matter if the coin has landed tails-up for the last 100 years ("tails never fails"). The mathematical probability of a coin toss is 50/50 — every time.
And that never changes. There is no such thing as "due" in a 50/50 proposition.
4. The Last X Teams That Called Tails Won The Super Bowl
See above.
5. The NFC Is 16-7 Outright In Indoor Super Bowls
Let's tackle one more if the "location doesn't matter" point hasn't been driven home. Every team likes to play football indoors. The NFC winning 17 of 23 is purely coincidental since every game is its chasm of handicapping. To frame this one differently, the NFC is 0-2 in domed Super Bowls since 2022.
Next!
6. Division X Is So Good/Bad In Super Bowls
Sure, division strength matters when making the playoffs and perhaps in the first two rounds. Maybe a team beat up on a lousy division and snuck away with an excellent record. But if the divisional round doesn't sus out the fraudulent teams, then the championship round is sure to. The NFC West is 2-8 in Super Bowl appearances, but six of the last nine AFC West teams lost.
So, which is it?
Tempting But Not Actionable Super Bowl Trends
7. The Last X Super Bowls Have Gone Under The Total
The biggest takeaway from trends that deal with "the last X Super Bowls" is that those do not affect this one. Even if it's the same two teams in consecutive years, last year's outcome does not influence this year's game. It's a difficult thing to sort out, but an important one. For example, the Chiefs beat the Eagles 38-35 in Super Bowl 57, a number that soared over the point total. In the 2023 rubber match, the Eagles won 21-17, going well under the total.
Going back too far, these trends become even more convoluted. What does the 2017 Super Bowl have to do with today? Neither of the starting quarterbacks is even in the league. Be cautious with trends that deal with past Super Bowls.
8. AFC Teams Are A Covering Machine
Who was involved in seven of those eight AFC covers in the last 10 years? Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes. This trend is more focused on dominance from the Patriots and Chiefs in the previous 20-plus years. What happened when Brady finished his career in the NFC? That conference covered the spread in his last Super Bowl appearance. Scrap it.
To reiterate the past advice of every trend above here on this list: Take every matchup in its yearly vacuum. Analyze each matchup and the team's capabilities without the outside influences of years beyond this one.
9. "Follow The Money"
Another trend I took from an article titled "Best Super Bowl Sports Betting Trends" (sigh...). The rationale is to find the sharp side and bet it. At BetMGM Sportsbook, 78% of the bets are over 49.5 points, yet the total has dipped to 49.
In last year's example, 76% of the bets and 75% of the money were on the Chiefs a few days before kickoff. After hours of measuring those numbers, the odds moved in favor of the 49ers.
Actionable Super Bowl Trends
Trends are tricky, but some do hold a little bit of informational value. They never mean go out and blindly bet a team.
For example, favorites are 25-29-3 ATS but 35-22 outright. This implies favorites are typically overvalued in the Super Bowl. However, with such a slim line this year (Chiefs [tallysight-widget type="odds-text" id="679ceb7bbc1823cf81dbbaf9"]), favorite/underdog splits are difficult to apply.
The only trends I'm applying to this year's Super Bowl are changes in statistical performances throughout the playoffs and the back end of the season. While these aren't "trends," per se, team trends do matter. These statistical trends can be attributed to a few things:
- Major personnel change
- Bye week adjustment
- Players returning or exiting to injury
- Strength of schedule
Be sure to frame how the Chiefs and Eagles are playing now instead of Week 6.
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