9 Dumb Super Bowl 58 Betting Trends To Ignore & One To Remember
Did you know the AFC is 13-8 outright in the Super Bowl, so long as it's played in February? Or that the AFC is 4-1 against the spread when an underdog? Teams wearing white are 37-20 all-time in Super Bowls, too. So, if teams wearing white win Super Bowls, then that means the 49ers should win, but they're not in the AFC… I’m gonna stop you there. These Super Bowl trends are dumb.
While fun coincidences to dissect, the overwhelming majority of Super Bowl trends have no correlation with betting odds and should be ignored. Below, we’ll go over nine dumb trends that you should throw out on Super Bowl Sunday.
6 Dumb Super Bowl Trends To Ignore
1. The AFC Is 13-8 in Super Bowls Played In February
Months and timing hold absolutely no predictive value, so as long as Super Bowls are played indoors. This year, Super Bowl 58 is played indoors at Allegiant Stadium. The next time the NFL hosts their championship game outdoors in a northern climate, we can talk weather and timing. But in every instance, the exact month doesn't matter in the slightest.
2. Teams Wearing White Hold An Advantage
I took this one straight from a headline. Usually, Super Bowl uniform color trends boil down to one thing – the same two teams won the majority of Super Bowls in the last two-plus decades. In this case, teams wearing white holding an advantage is entirely random.
Uniforms are chosen by the "home" team, which alternates year to year between the AFC and NFC. It's a literal coin flip.
Speaking of...
3. The Last X Coin Tosses Have Been Tails
This one is the most frustrating because this is the most basic math concept from elementary school. You know the exercise: the more times you flip a coin, the closer to a 50/50 split you get. Doesn't matter if the coin has landed tails-up the last 100 years running ("tails never fails"). The mathematical probability of a coin toss is 50/50. Every time.
And that never ever changes. There is no such thing as "due" in a 50/50 proposition.
4. The Last X Teams That Called Tails Won The Super Bowl
See above.
5. The NFC Is 16-6 Outright In Indoor Super Bowls
In case the "location doesn't matter" point hasn't been driven home, let's tackle one more. Every team likes to play football indoors. The NFC winning 16-of-22 is purely coincidental since every game is its own chasm of handicapping. To frame this one in another way, the NFC is 0-1 in domed Super Bowls since 2022.
Next!
6. Division X Is So Good/Bad In Super Bowls
Sure, division strength matters when making the playoffs and perhaps in the first two rounds. Maybe a team beat up on a bad division and snuck away with a great record. But if the Divisional Round doesn't sus out the fraudulent teams, then the Championship Round is sure to. The NFC West is 2-7 in Super Bowl appearances, so maybe that means the 49ers won't win this year. But six of the last eight AFC West teams lost.
So, which is it?
Tempting But Not Actionable Super Bowl Trends
7. The Last X Super Bowls Have Gone Under The Total
The biggest takeaway from trends that deal with "the last X Super Bowls" is that those have no effect on this one. Even if it's the same two teams in consecutive years, last year's outcome has no influence on this year's. It's a difficult thing to sort out, but an important one. For example, the Chiefs beat the Eagles 38-35 in last year's Big Game, a number that soared over the point total. In the Week 11 rubber match, the Eagles won 21-17, going well under the total.
Going back too far, these trends become even more convoluted. What does the 2016 Super Bowl have to do with today? Neither of the starting quarterbacks is even in the league. Be cautious with trends that deal with past Super Bowls.
8. AFC Teams Have Covered Seven Of The Last Nine Super Bowls
Do you know who was involved in three of those six AFC covers? Tom Brady. Patrick Mahomes was involved in another two. What this trend is more focused on is dominance from the Patriots and Chiefs in the last 20 years. What happened when Tom Brady finished his career in the NFC? That conference covered the spread in Brady's last Super Bowl appearance. Scrap it.
To reiterate the past advice of every trend above here on this list: Take every matchup in its own yearly vacuum. Analyze each matchup and the team's capabilities without the outside influences of years beyond this one.
9. "Follow The Money"
Another trend I took from an article titled "Best Super Bowl Sports Betting Trends" (sigh...). The rationale is find the sharp side and bet it. At BetMGM Sportsbook, 76% of the bets and 75% of the money are on the Chiefs, as of last Thursday. And, yet, just hours before penning this article, the number moved in favor of the 49ers.
The most important thing to remember with betting splits is what number was that action taken at? A bunch of it came at opening when the Chiefs were +3 (-120). Less of it came in on Chiefs +1, for obvious reasons. Don't follow the money – it's a fool's errand. (Note: the article even mentions this is a "losing trend" of late.)
Actionable Super Bowl Trends
Trends are tricky, but some do hold a little bit of informational value. They never mean go out and blindly bet a team.
For example, favorites are 25-28-3 ATS but 35-21 outright. This implies favorites are typically overvalued in the Super Bowl. However, with such a slim line this year (49ers ), favorite/underdog splits are difficult to apply.
The only trends I'm applying to this year's Super Bowl are statistical performances throughout the playoffs and the back end of the season. While these aren't "trends," per se, team trends do matter. For example, the Chiefs are 28th in EPA against the run on the season as a whole, but from Week 14 through the Championship Round, they're 13th.
These statistical trends can be attributed to a few things:
- Major personnel change
- Bye week adjustment
- Players returning or exiting to injury
- Strength of schedule
Be sure to frame how the Chiefs and 49ers are playing now as opposed to Week 3.
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