College Basketball Odds & Player Props: UNC Vs. Duke Saturday Betting Guide
Duke at unc odds: spread, moneyline, total
UNC’s Issues To Persist?
North Carolina has covered all but two of their ACC matchups in the new year, but its 10-game winning streak ended at Georgia Tech on Wednesday. The Yellow Jackets’ 9-of-20 shooting (45.0%) from behind the arc was the difference. The Tar Heels’ perimeter defense has undergone some regression after surrendering only a 22.5% 3-point clip in their first nine victories in 2024.
Although the Blue Devils’ 3-point attempt rate is slightly below the league average, they’ve connected on 40.3% of those shots against conference foes. The health of sophomore guard Tyrese Proctor, who missed three-plus games in the non-conference slate with an ankle injury, has played a significant role in their perimeter efficiency.
In Duke’s last four matchups, Proctor has accrued 16.4 points per game while hitting 48.4% of his long-range looks. The potential lottery pick is also averaging 0.90 points per possession (PPP) in pick-and-roll sets. On the flip side, UNC’s ball-screen coverage has been subpar, particularly when Armando Bacot is caught against a guard. Overall, its isolation defense slots into the 19th percentile (via Synergy).
As much as Proctor has impressed, fellow Blue Devils guard Jeremy Roach is a similar threat to break down UNC’s somewhat fraudulent defense. Below are his biggest areas of improvement in his senior season.
|Production vs. 2021-23
|47.6% 3FG +14.8%
If their offense is consistent enough in those areas, they’ll certainly limit the Tar Heels’ transition attack. It’s where Huebert Davis’ crew is at its best. Plus, the 7-foot Kyle Filipowski has defended well in the paint, which is key against Bacot in half-court sets.
Matchup-wise, Duke showcases the roster construction in place to keep pace.
Utilizing Power Ratings
Per my college basketball power rankings, these arch-rivals are separated by slightly above two points. After incorporating the home-court advantage via the Dean Smith Center, the opening spread might be inflated, according to my raw numbers.
However, the situational spot sides with the Tar Heels. If you’re unfamiliar with this term, it aims to uncover conditions in which programs have exceeded or underperformed their normal level of play — relative to the moneyline or spread odds. Given the Tar Heels’ recent defeat, along with getting swept by the Blue Devils last season, this game represents a prime “motivational” spot for Davis’ bunch.
Likewise, Haslametrics approximated a final score of 79.19-73.02, favoring UNC basketball odds. Erik Haslam, who runs the analytics site will return to Outside Shots once conference tournaments begin. TheLines.com’s managing editor Stephen Andress co-hosts with me each week to preview the weekend slate and discuss betting odds. Watch or listen to the latest show below.
unc vs. Duke odds: Player Props
This table will populate when sportsbooks open player props for UNC vs. Duke, typically on gameday.
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