Duke March Madness Odds: First Round NCAA Tournament Bets

The No. 5 Duke Blue Devils (26-8) face the No. 12 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (30-4) at 7:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 16 in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. Duke is a favorite and on the moneyline in East Region odds. Sportsbooks set the over/under at points. In this article, we break down everything you need to know before placing a bet on Duke March Madness odds, including team matchups, key metrics, and the best available college basketball odds.

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Duke vs. Oral Roberts betting odds

Click on odds in the table below to bet on Duke March Madness odds vs. Oral Roberts. Toggle between point spread, money line, and point total using the dropdown menu.

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Duke vs. Oral Roberts player props

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Duke March Madness Futures

Why Duke can cover the spread

TheLines lead college basketball writer Eli Hershkovich reported that underdogs aren’t getting the same numbers they used to. This tournament, those underdogs see shaved point spreads and shorter lines. While that sucks the value out of some underdogs, that could lead to increased value in betting favorites.

“If the Golden Eagles didn’t make a Sweet 16 run with Max Abmas in 2021, this line is hovering around double figures,” Hershkovich notes.

Perhaps the betting market thinks the same way, as Duke’s grown from their opening number to . After all, it’s rare to see the Cinderella mid-major return to the NCAA Tournament and go on another run. Surprisingly, the general public doesn’t see the hype, either; ORU is the least-picked 12-seed to advance in the first round, per ESPN (18.8% of brackets).

Ultimately, the vast majority of college basketball fans want to see Duke lose in the Round of 64, even post-Mike Krzyzewski. But with a well-balanced attack and perhaps some recency bias, Duke could present a value bet.

Why Oral Roberts can cover the spread

Abmas was the motor that drove ORU right past Ohio State and Florida as a 15-seed in ’21. He’s back this year.

Per KenPom ratings, the ACC champions are the second-lowest rated 5-seed, only to Miami (FL), whom Duke beat to reach the conference championship game. On the flip side, ORU is the highest-rated 12-seed, edging out VCU.

One large inefficiency between these two teams exists in three-point rate. ORU attempts the 16th-most three-pointers at 45.8% while Duke sits 249th (35.4%). Instead, the Blue Devils prefer to run through 7-foot freshman Kyle Filipowksi, the team’s leading scorer. The team lacks a true go-to sharpshooter from beyond the arc, which could cause issues playing catchup should the Golden Eagles jump out to a lead.

ORU does have the height to matchup with Filipowski, thanks to senior Connor Vanover, who stands 7-foot-3.

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Final thoughts

If you’re looking to get different in a large March Madness bracket pool, Oral Roberts presents a nice contrarian selection. Their low pick rate (18.8%) mixed with a much-higher 31.3% implied win rate is, mathematically, an advantage.

However, there’s less value betting ORU against the spread, as Hershkovich highlighted. Recent tournament performance pushed this number down far from where it maybe should be, thus creating value betting Duke on the point spread.