College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions, Same-Game Parlay: Will Kansas ‘Upset’ Duke?
Sandwiched between the Maui Invitational semifinals, top-ranked Kansas takes on No. 11 Duke in the Vegas Showdown on Tuesday, Nov. 26. They’re essentially flip-flopped in my college basketball power rankings. The betting market agrees as the Blue Devils are Duke Blue Devils -3.5 (-115) on Caesars spread favorites, with a total of 155.5 (-110). Let’s inspect the odds for Duke vs. Kansas, including a same-game parlay.
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Duke vs. kansas: spread, moneyline, total
Will Blue Devils Continue To Ascend?
Historically, this spread marks the first time since 2022 that the No. 1 team in the AP Top 25 poll is an underdog on a neutral court. That year, Alabama — a 1.5-point favorite — defeated North Carolina in a four-overtime thriller at the PK-80 Invitational.
Don’t read too much into Kansas’ national ranking. The Jayhawks are undoubtedly a title contender, guided by veteran center Hunter Dickinson. Still, the Blue Devils’ failure to execute down the stretch versus Kentucky shouldn’t overshadow its wire-to-wire road victory against Arizona.
According to the odds for March Madness, Duke is the consensus favorite to cut down the nets. Its market rating correlates with the opening line of -2.5. While five-star freshman Cooper Flagg has exhibited flashes of dominance at both ends, he isn’t at the epicenter of this handicap.
Haslametrics, one of the premier analytical evaluators in college basketball, has Duke ranked second in defensive efficiency nationally. Kansas runs its offense through the low post via Dickinson, but the Blue Devils’ post-up defense settles in the 65th percentile (via Synergy). Considering their opponents thus far, it’s a fair evaluation tool over a small sample size.
Khaman Maluach, the 7-foot-2, 250-pound freshman, provides elite-level rim protection and can disrupt Dickinson if he stays out of foul trouble. Cramping has also plagued Maluach, so his conditioning is worth monitoring if you want to live bet on this tilt.
Additionally, the Jayhawks’ transfer-filled roster has not established a secondary scorer. Zeke Mayo (South Dakota State) and A.J. Storr (Wisconsin) have displayed their playmaking prowess at times, but I have greater confidence in Duke offensively.
Per Synergy, Kansas has allowed a 30.8% clip on unguarded 3-point looks. With Flagg and Co. due for more positive shooting regression, their offense has a higher ceiling than we’ve witnessed.
College Basketball Projections & SGP
My raw numbers make the Blue Devils a hair under four-point favorites on a neutral court, creating some value compared to the opening line. If you want to throw some pizza money on an SGP, +175 odds are available for the Blue Devils to win, paired with their sharpshooter Kon Knueppel scoring 15 or more points at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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duke vs. kansas odds: player props
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