Duke College Basketball Odds & Player Props Vs. Virginia Tech: Will Blue Devils Cover Monday?
Ahead of tonight’s ACC tilt, No. 12 Duke is stationed as a favorite at unranked Virginia Tech. The Hokies are underdogs to deliver the outright upset. Elsewhere, the total is lined at . Will the Blue Devils cover the point spread? Let’s assess Duke basketball odds, with key metrics and matchups to hone in on.
duke basketball odds vs. virginia tech
Will Hokies Catch Fire?
While the Blue Devils have won 10 of their last 11 games straight up, they’ve failed to cover in their previous four matchups. One of them was a home loss to Pitt, in which the Panthers manufactured a 10-of-20 (50.0%) shooting performance from behind the arc.
Granted, neither Jeremy Roach nor Mark Mitchell — two of Duke’s mainstays — played in that game. However, the Blue Devils’ perimeter defense still represents their biggest liability, yielding a 35.2% clip in league play. It’s equivalent to the seventh-highest 3-point percentage allowed among ACC teams.
Despite their opponents’ success, their defense has been fortunate. For context, Duke is surrendering a 30.2% clip on unguarded catch-and-shoot shots. That ranks in the 97th percentile, according to Synergy. If you buy into predictive metrics, this notion implies that John Scheyer’s unit has surrendered its fair share of open looks, which elite marksmen should cash in on in the near future.
Enter Virginia Tech, boasting a top-60 3-point attempt rate across college basketball. Over the last three games, Mike Young’s 4-out, 1-in motion offense is on a heater, accumulating a 42.6% clip around the arc. Hokies two-guard Hunter Cattoor remains at the center of their offensive efficiency.
For Catoor & Co. to cover against Duke, they must sustain their perimeter surge while limiting turnovers. The latter has plagued over the course of the campaign, and the Blue Devils’ ball pressure — led by Tyrese Proctor — can certainly take advantage.
Utilizing Power Ratings
Per my college basketball power rankings, Duke and Virginia Tech are separated by a touch under six points. After factoring in home-court advantage at Cassell Coliseum, the spread appears spot on at Duke -3, according to my raw numbers.
Bear in mind that the Blue Devils play arch-rival North Carolina on Saturday, so this game could represent a look-ahead spot.
Meanwhile, Haslametrics approximated a final score of 75.61-73.99, favoring the Hokies in regards to the spread. Erik Haslam, who owns and operates this analytics site, will return to the Outside Shots podcast in March. TheLines.com’s managing editor Stephen Andress joins me each week to preview the weekend slate and discuss the latest NCAA tournament odds. Watch or listen below.
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duke basketball odds: Player Props vs. virginia tech
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