Duke College Basketball Odds Vs. Baylor: Will Blue Devils Cover In SentinelOne Classic?
Ahead of the SentinelOne Classic at Madison Square Garden, No. 21 Duke is listed as a favorite against No. 10 Baylor. Hence, the Bears are short underdogs to win outright. Meanwhile, the total is . Will the Blue Devils cover the point spread in Wednesday’s top-25 showdown? Let’s dig into Duke basketball odds versus Baylor, including key metrics and matchups to hone in on.
Duke basketball odds vs. Baylor
How Did We Get Here?
Although the Blue Devils are on the fringe of the latest AP Top 25 Poll, lacking a marquee victory, market power ratings have Duke firmly in the mix. Led by sophomore big Kyle Filowpowski, who’s among others behind Purdue’s Zach Edey in the Wooden Award race at , the offensive ceiling is undeniable.
That hasn’t been the case for the Blue Devils at the other end. In particular, their transition defense ranks in the fifth percentile nationally, surrendering 1.19 points per possession (PPP). While Baylor failed to produce many fast-break opportunities in Saturday’s blowout loss to Michigan State, it’s still produced 1.13 PPP in transition overall.
Unlike Duke, Scott Drew’s team has accrued two impressive wins over Auburn and Florida. Neither team has received much hype, yet the Tigers are one of my longshot bets to cut down the nets in April.
Baylor Shooting Regression?
Not only did the Bears accumulate 21 turnovers versus the Spartans’ pressure defense, but their perimeter attack (6-of-19 shooting) also struggled. RayJ Dennis & Co. still own the top 3-point clip (44.6%) in Division I, but they will experience additional negative variance sooner than later.
Simply put, that level of efficiency isn’t sustainable. However, Duke isn’t necessarily built to stop it in the short term. If Baylor controls the tempo, it could exploit a fortunate defense — despite its transition woes. Per Synergy, the Blue Devils’ opponents have only shot 30.8% on unguarded catch-and-shoot looks. That clip ranks in the 84th percentile.
Moreover, sophomore guard Tyrese Proctor, Duke’s best defender, was seen on crutches with a sprained ankle. Even with the opportunity to boost its snooze-worthy resume, it’s unclear whether Proctor is healthy enough to play after missing their last two games. Blue Devils coach Jon Scheyer said they want him “as close to 100% as possible.” His potential absence would open the door for defensive regression from behind the arc.
- Editor’s note: Proctor was ruled out about an hour before tip-off.
Utilizing Power Ratings
According to my college basketball power rankings, Baylor and Duke are separated by less than a half-point with my raw numbers. On the flip side, Haslametrics forecasts a final of 80.5-77.4, favoring Duke. Erik Haslam, who runs the college basketball analytics site, will join me on the Outside Shots podcast throughout the season. Listen to the latest episode below.
duke basketball odds: Player Props vs. baylor
This table will populate when sportsbooks open player props for Duke vs. Baylor, typically on the day of the game.
duke basketball Futures
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