College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions Friday: Flagg SGP In Duke At Arizona?
Duke men’s basketball battles Arizona at McKale Memorial Center on Friday, Nov. 22. Both programs are in the top 20 of media polls and my college basketball power rankings. The Wildcats are Arizona Wildcats +9.5 (-112) on DraftKings home favorites. Meanwhile, the total is lined at 128.5 (-110) on Caesars. Let’s analyze the Duke at Arizona odds board, including a potential same-game parlay.
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duke at arizona odds: spread, moneyline, total
Blue Devils’ Bounce-Back?
To tip off a challenging non-conference schedule, Duke was upset by Kentucky in the Champions Classic. I still have the Blue Devils pegged as a top-five team in my power ratings, but it will undoubtedly undergo growing pains with a youthful yet uber-talented roster. Cooper Flagg, the highest-rated recruit in program history, is only 17 years old and will continue to improve his ball handling, which ultimately cost the Blue Devils against the Wildcats.
Even though Jon Scheyer’s crew is likelier to cut down the nets, according to March Madness odds, sportsbooks give Arizona a slight edge on the opening point spread.
Eventually, the Blue Devils will inherit some positive regression from behind the arc. They’ve accrued a 31% clip on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers, ranking well below the Division I average. Speaking of Flagg, he’s at the forefront of those struggles.
Conversely, the Wildcats have allowed their opponents to manufacture a top-125 perimeter clip (34.8%). They are lucky it isn’t higher, as their foes are hitting just 32% on open triples (via Synergy).
On paper, this game represents a prime spot for Duke to rediscover its 3-point stroke. Couple that with the Blue Devils seeking revenge after Arizona emerged with a win at Cameron Indoor Stadium last year, and I’d be surprised if the market doesn’t shift toward the road team.
Granted, there is always the chance that Wildcats combo guard Caleb Love goes nuclear. Unlike Duke’s shooting, the veteran’s inefficiency isn’t startling. He’s producing a 25% clip on guarded jumpers while routinely cashing in open looks.
College Basketball Projections
My raw numbers make the Blue Devils a short road favorite, with a small edge compared to the opening line (Wildcats -1.5).
Proceed with caution, as Tommy Lloyd’s team will look to make a statement after suffering an upset defeat at Wisconsin last week. If Flagg and Co. fail to hinder Arizona’s elite transition offense, Duke’s resume could take another hit.
However, if you expect Flagg and the Blue Devils to shoot well in a hostile venue, an SGP with Flagg to score 17+ points and Duke moneyline is priced at +203 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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