A few weeks after opening 2024 NFL futures hit the board at DraftKings Sportsbook, some playoff results have clarified the picture for 2024 Super Bowl odds.
After opening as co-favorites with the Buffalo Bills, the Kansas City Chiefs stand alone at the top of the futures board heading into the offseason. It’s the second straight year those two teams have opened as the top two favorites. The Bills have slipped slightly in the market after their convincing defeat at the hands of the Bengals. But, they remain a bit ahead of the 49ers, Eagles and Bengals, rounding out the top tier of contenders.
Let’s look at the chances the market gives each team to hoist the Super Bowl 58 trophy in Las Vegas next year. Opening odds via DraftKings, current odds at best available prices in the legal market.
|Team||Opening Odds||Current Odds||2022-23 Record/Result|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+550||14-3, Won Super Bowl|
|Buffalo Bills||+550||13-3, Lost in divisional playoff|
|San Francisco 49ers||+700||13-4, Lost in conference championship|
|Cincinnati Bengals||+1000||12-4, Lost in conference championship|
|Philadelphia Eagles||+1000||14-3, Lost in Super Bowl|
|Dallas Cowboys||+1200||12-5, Lost in divisional playoff|
|LA Chargers||+2500||10-7, Lost in wild card playoff|
|Baltimore Ravens||+2800||10-7, Lost in wild card playoff|
|New York Jets||+4000||7-10, Missed playoffs|
|Denver Broncos||+4000||5-12, Missed playoffs|
|Miami Dolphins||+4000||9-8, Lost in wild card playoff|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||+4000||9-8, Lost in divisional playoff|
|Detroit Lions||+3500||9-8, Missed playoffs|
|Green Bay Packers||+3000||8-9, Missed playoffs|
|LA Rams||+4000||5-12, Missed playoffs|
|NY Giants||+4000||9-7-1, Lost in divisional playoff|
|Cleveland Browns||+4500||7-10, Missed playoffs|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+5000||6-11, Missed playoffs|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+3500||8-9, Lost in wild card playoff|
|Minnesota Vikings||+5000||13-4, Lost in wild card playoff|
|New Orleans Saints||+4000||7-10, Missed playoffs|
|New England Patriots||+6000||8-9, Missed playoffs|
|Carolina Panthers||+6000||7-10, Missed playoffs|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||+6000||9-8, Missed playoffs|
|Tennessee Titans||+7000||7-10, Missed playoffs|
|Seattle Seahawks||+8000||9-8, Lost in wild card playoff|
|Atlanta Falcons||+7000||7-10, Missed playoffs|
|Washington Commanders||+8000||8-8-1, Missed playoffs|
|Chicago Bears||+8000||3-14, Missed playoffs|
|Indianapolis Colts||+7000||4-12-1, Missed playoffs|
|Arizona Cardinals||+10000||4-13, Missed playoffs|
|Houston Texans||+10000||3-13-1, Missed playoffs|
Notable Teams In 2024 Super Bowl Odds
We’ll quickly run through a few teams that stand out in next year’s Super Bowl odds.
Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles
The Super Bowl participants will always naturally draw a heap of bets. That’s especially true when a potential budding dynasty is involved.
Thought to be treading water for a year after trading WR Tyreek Hill for draft capital, the Chiefs instead proved that Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes give them the highest floor in football. After a down season the prior year, Mahomes reasserted himself as the best QB on the planet with a convincing MVP win. He will surely enter 2023-24 as the favorite there, and a promising rookie class has this defense on the upswing.
The Eagles have arguably the most complete roster in the NFL. And with Jalen Hurts on his rookie deal for one more season, they can remain loaded for bear. They got a rather fortunate path to the Super Bowl through a weak NFC, but their chief rivals there have massive uncertainty at QB. Philly should find itself contending for at least another year.
San Francisco 49ers
Among the top tier of contenders, one common theme runs through. All are set at quarterback, with either an elite option at the position (Chiefs, Bengals, Bills), or an above-average performer on a rookie contract (Eagles).
The San Francisco 49ers stand as an exception. While Brock Purdy looked like he could fall into the latter category, it’s unknown what his immediate future looks like. He has a potentially complex surgery ahead, one that will sideline him for six months on the short end.
Plus, the Trey Lance situation looms. While the offense hummed better with Purdy, Lance was considered the far more talented prospect, and the team invested much more draft capital in him. The team entered 2022-23 seemingly committed to Lance, but Purdy’s play and subsequent injury has the situation in flux.
The 49ers still have one of the league’s best rosters and will return almost every meaningful contributor. Defensive Coordinator DeMeco Ryans left for a head job. But, architect Robert Saleh’s departure did not seem to interrupt that unit’s greatness. With potentially three rebuilding teams in the division, the way seems clear for another 49ers run next season if they get competence at QB.
New York Jets And Denver Broncos
Pundits have popularly dubbed these two teams “a quarterback away.”
In the Broncos’ case, their starting QB is already on the roster, they simply need him to play better. The team is stuck with Russell Wilson for at least another three years, according to Spotrac’s contract breakdown. Denver’s going to run it back and hope new coach Sean Payton can right the ship after the disastrous Nathaniel Hackett hired. The market signaled it approves of the Payton hire, bumping Denver up the board slightly.
When it comes to the Jets, they showcased a tremendous defense in 2022, finishing sixth in EPA/play allowed. And much like the Saints with their lauded 2017 class, Jets players took home hardware for Rookie of the Year on both sides of the ball.
The ingredients for success exist, but Zach Wilson has been arguably the worst quarterback in the NFL since arriving as the No. 2 overall pick. Mere competence would probably get this team in the playoffs. Keep an eye on them as a destination for disgruntled vets like Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson.
Unfortunately for both the Jets and Broncos, each plays in a brutal division that features the Bills and Chiefs, respectively, lording over them. Overcoming these situations may prove just as tough as sorting out the on-field problems at QB.
Beat The Closing Line: 2023 NFL Futures Bets
Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings
The NFC North is shaping up to be perhaps the most interesting divisional race.
When markets open, bettors may see none other than longtime punching bags the Lions at the top. They have an have an up-and-coming roster and an aggressive head coach. Hunger level should be high after they missed the playoffs on tiebreaker.
Of course, Aaron Rodgers will have something to say about that whole Lions as favorites thing. Shockingly, he has expressed uncertainty about his future. Again. Even if he finally moves on or retires, the Packers roster remains quite talented. And backup QB Jordan Love showed some large improvements in a small sample of snaps against the Eagles this year.
Shoring up a defense that got trucked by opposing running games should be a fairly cheap and easy fix.
Perhaps most interesting are the Vikings, though. Some bettors may have to do a double take after seeing a No. 3 seed surrounded on the board by also-rans like the Buccaneers and Raiders. Those keeping track of the markets all year will know that influential bettors and oddsmakers never really respected this team. An aging and mediocre defense makes for a rough combination that will require serious overhaul.
Another team seriously lacking at the QB position, the Panthers very nearly won their awful division but couldn’t hold on late against one of Tom Brady’s final charges.
What makes the Panthers interesting is they hired a coach in Frank Reich who has proven he can succeed with roughly average QB play. The defense has plenty of talent after serious draft investment the past few years.
And Carolina will have all the chances in the world to win the division. The Bucs prevailed with a losing record last season and lost their starting QB. The Saints are old and capped out, and the Falcons young and even worse at QB.
No team that made the playoffs finds itself lower on the board than the Seahawks.
They have stumbled on an interesting conundrum. Still holding a premium draft pick thanks to the Broncos’ collapse, Seattle must decide whether to pay Geno Smith, or pocket the tens of millions he’ll be demanding while snagging a QB at No. 5 overall for the rebuild.
The division could be there for the taking if the 49ers don’t figure something out at QB. And Pete Carroll may lack the patience to craft a rebuild at age 72 next season.
Seattle figures to move up this list if they opt to keep Smith. But they are still pretty talent-deficient overall, with a weak offensive line and a pass rush that’s been a mess for years, although Uchenna Nwosu made a notable difference this season.
The Seahawks could go any number of directions, but the Smith domino will likely be a huge tell of where they’re headed for 2023-24.