DraftKings Sportsbook dropped 2023 opening college football win totals for all 133 FBS teams. FanDuel was the first to release limited totals on the bigger names in the sport, but DraftKings was the first to release the full slate. Teams of note include all 12 teams moving conferences and the two new FBS members, Jacksonville State and Sam Houston State. The release briefly shed light on the May doldrums of the college football offseason.
Let’s take a dive into the numbers for some of the notable teams. Scroll to the bottom of this article for the complete list of opening prices.
College Football Win Totals: 10+ Wins
| Team | Win Total | 2022 Record |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 11.5 | 15-0 |
| Ohio State | 10.5 | 11-2 |
| Alabama | 10.5 | 11-2 |
| Michigan | 10.5 | 13-1 |
| USC | 10.5 | 11-3 |
| Florida State | 10 | 10-3 |
Unsurprisingly, the most dominant teams of the last five years headline win totals. The two-time defending champion Georgia Bulldogs open with the most projected wins. Despite turning over the quarterback position and over 50% of offensive production, they are the only team to usurp 10.5 on the board.
Georgia is joined by the Alabama Crimson Tide, which head into this season with the most uncertainty since 2015. Not only must they replace a Heisman-winning QB, but they also lost the nation’s top defensive player.
Not far behind are the Ohio State Buckeyes. Similarly, Ryan Day will likely hand the QB baton to rising five-star Kyle McCord. McCord possesses one of the nation’s top receiving corps to work with — headlined by Marvin Harrison Jr., whom McCord played high school football with.
Staying in the Big Ten, the Michigan Wolverines also join the party thanks to a seriously talented roster, returning 83% of their overall production. That’s good for the sixth-most nationally.
Meanwhile, the USC Trojans return reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams, but they’ve yet to inspire defensively. While the shootout formula has worked for Lincoln Riley both at Oklahoma and now USC, they failed to capture a Pac-12 title last season.
The real party crashers are the Florida State Seminoles, who return 87% of roster production (most nationally). The ‘Noles won nine regular season games last year and draw an advantageous schedule (ranked 57th-hardest). FSU is the ACC odds favorite (), unseating Clemson’s near-decade run.
Related: College football power rankings
Early Movers
| Team | Opening Win Total | Win Total (as of 5/15) | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | 8.5 | 9.5 | +1 |
| Notre Dame | 8.5 | 9.0 | +0.5 |
| Cincinnati | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 |
| Wake Forest | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 |
| Virginia Tech | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 |
| Georgia Tech | 4.0 | 4.5 | +0.5 |
| Nevada | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 |
| Stanford | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 |
| BYU | 6.0 | 5.5 | -0.5 |
| Navy | 7.0 | 6.5 | -0.5 |
| Iowa | 8.5 | 7.5 | -1 |
Win totals can be slow to move, especially college football ones in mid-May. However, market correction affected two lines in particular almost immediately: the LSU Tigers and Iowa Hawkeyes — in opposite directions.
The Tigers opened with a projected 8.5 wins, yet that number quickly jumped to 9.5. LSU returns QB Jayden Daniels, a pair of monster defenders (Maason Smith and Harold Perkins), and the 10th-most production on offense. The reigning SEC West champions still trail Alabama in SEC West odds, as the 20-year-long Nick Saban stranglehold continues.
Iowa might be under more scrutiny this offseason than at any other point in team history. The father-son duo of Kirk and Brian Ferentz resulted in the 102nd-scoring offense in points per drive and the 127th-ranked offense in EPA per play, respectively.
That kind of resume would almost certainly result in the firing of the offensive coordinator. However Kirk decided to keep his son on the staff.
“We’re gonna do the same things we do, we’re gonna do them better,” Brian said on the Hawkeyes’ offense. A public detail in his revised contract set a benchmark for 25 points per game scored this coming season. That number would have ranked 78th nationally in 2022.
The unwillingness to adapt clearly struck a note with bettors, forcing the market to reduce Iowa’s win total by one.
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Teams In New Conferences
| Team | Opening Win Total | New Conference | Old Conference |
|---|---|---|---|
| BYU | 6.0 | Big 12 | Independent |
| Cincinnati | 4.5 | Big 12 | American |
| Houston | 4.5 | Big 12 | American |
| UCF | 6.5 | Big 12 | American |
| Charlotte | 2.5 | American | C-USA |
| Florida Atlantic | 7.5 | American | C-USA |
| North Texas | 6.5 | American | C-USA |
| Rice | 5.5 | American | C-USA |
| UAB | 5.5 | American | C-USA |
| UTSA | 7.5 | American | C-USA |
| Jacksonville State | 5.5 | C-USA | FCS |
| Liberty | 9.5 | C-USA | Independent |
| New Mexico State | 4.5 | C-USA | Independent |
| Sam Houston State | 4.0 | C-USA | FCS |
Phase I of one of the largest conference realignments in college football history begins July 1. BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF move up to the Big 12 while six members of Conference-USA fill in their spots in the American. Liberty and New Mexico State leave independence for C-USA while both Jacksonville State and Sam Houston State move up to the FBS ranks, becoming the No. 132 and 133 members.
Of the group, the Liberty Flames are projected to win the most games (9.5), thanks to the nation’s easiest schedule. Liberty hired Coastal Carolina’s Jamey Chadwell in the wake of Hugh Freeze departing for Auburn.
The Flames also lose over 50% of their defensive production from a crew that finished 30th in points per drive allowed and rostered one of the best defensive lines nationally.
The Florida Atlantic Owls and UTSA Roadrunners (both at 7.5 wins) project to fare well in the American, too. FAU was a hotspot for transfers, particularly quarterbacks Casey Thompson (Nebraska) and Daniel Richardson (Central Michigan). UTSA returns beloved head coach Jeff Traylor and veteran star QB Frank Harris.
Meanwhile, the Charlotte 49ers (2.5 wins) may incur some difficulties changing over a new staff.
Incoming Big 12 programs are expected to drag in Year 1. The Cincinnati Bearcats turn over their coaching staff, landing Scott Satterfield from Louisville. Houston must replace one of their better all-time QB-WR duos, reeling in Texas Tech transfer Donovan Smith to start.
UCF returns an intriguing roster, and the market knocked their Big 12 odds down from +5000 to +3000.
College Football Win Totals
| Team | Opening Win Total |
|---|---|
| Air Force | 8.5 |
| Akron | 3.5 |
| Alabama | 10.5 |
| Appalachian State | 6.5 |
| Arizona | 5 |
| Arizona State | 5 |
| Arkansas | 7 |
| Arkansas State | 4.5 |
| Army | 6 |
| Auburn | 6.5 |
| Ball State | 4.5 |
| Baylor | 7.5 |
| Boise State | 9 |
| Boston College | 5.5 |
| Bowling Green | 5.5 |
| Buffalo | 7 |
| BYU | 6 |
| California | 4.5 |
| Central Michigan | 5.5 |
| Charlotte | 2.5 |
| Cincinnati | 4.5 |
| Clemson | 9.5 |
| Coastal Carolina | 8 |
| Colorado | 3 |
| Colorado State | 4.5 |
| Duke | 6.5 |
| East Carolina | 5.5 |
| Eastern Michigan | 6.5 |
| Florida | 5.5 |
| Florida Atlantic | 7.5 |
| Florida International | 2.5 |
| Florida State | 10 |
| Fresno State | 7.5 |
| Georgia | 11.5 |
| Georgia Southern | 6 |
| Georgia State | 5.5 |
| Georgia Tech | 4 |
| Hawaii | 3.5 |
| Houston | 4.5 |
| Illinois | 6.5 |
| Indiana | 3.5 |
| Iowa | 8.5 |
| Iowa State | 5.5 |
| Jacksonville State | 5.5 |
| James Madison | 7 |
| Kansas | 6.5 |
| Kansas State | 8.5 |
| Kent State | 2.5 |
| Kentucky | 6.5 |
| Liberty | 9.5 |
| Louisiana | 6.5 |
| Louisiana Tech | 5.5 |
| Louisiana-Monroe | 3.5 |
| Louisville | 8 |
| LSU | 8.5 |
| Marshall | 7 |
| Maryland | 7 |
| Memphis | 7 |
| Miami (FL) | 7.5 |
| Miami (OH) | 6.5 |
| Michigan | 10.5 |
| Michigan State | 5.5 |
| Middle Tennessee | 6.5 |
| Minnesota | 6.5 |
| Mississippi State | 6.5 |
| Missouri | 6.5 |
| Navy | 7 |
| NC State | 6.5 |
| Nebraska | 6 |
| Nevada | 2.5 |
| New Mexico | 4 |
| New Mexico State | 4.5 |
| North Carolina | 8.5 |
| North Texas | 6.5 |
| Northern Illinois | 6.5 |
| Northwestern | 3.5 |
| Notre Dame | 8.5 |
| Ohio | 7 |
| Ohio State | 10.5 |
| Oklahoma | 9.5 |
| Oklahoma State | 6.5 |
| Old Dominion | 4 |
| Ole Miss | 7.5 |
| Oregon | 9.5 |
| Oregon State | 8 |
| Penn State | 9.5 |
| Pittsburgh | 6.5 |
| Purdue | 5.5 |
| Rice | 5.5 |
| Rutgers | 4.5 |
| Sam Houston State | 4 |
| San Diego State | 7 |
| San Jose State | 5.5 |
| SMU | 8 |
| South Alabama | 8 |
| South Carolina | 6.5 |
| Southern Miss | 5 |
| Stanford | 2.5 |
| Syracuse | 6.5 |
| TCU | 7.5 |
| Temple | 4.5 |
| Tennessee | 9.5 |
| Texas | 9.5 |
| Texas A&M | 7.5 |
| Texas State | 4.5 |
| Texas Tech | 7.5 |
| Toledo | 9.5 |
| Troy | 8 |
| Tulane | 9.5 |
| Tulsa | 3.5 |
| UAB | 5.5 |
| UCF | 6.5 |
| UCLA | 8.5 |
| UConn | 5.5 |
| UMass | 1.5 |
| UNLV | 6 |
| USC | 9.5 |
| USF | 3 |
| Utah | 8.5 |
| Utah State | 6 |
| UTEP | 5.5 |
| UTSA | 7.5 |
| Vanderbilt | 3.5 |
| Virginia | 3.5 |
| Virginia Tech | 4.5 |
| Wake Forest | 5.5 |
| Washington | 9 |
| Washington State | 6.5 |
| West Virginia | 4.5 |
| Western Kentucky | 8.5 |
| Western Michigan | 3.5 |
| Wisconsin | 9 |
| Wyoming | 6.5 |
