Republican Vice Presidential Odds: Who Will Be Donald Trump VP Pick In ‘Veepstakes’?
The U.S. election is heating up, with the first Presidential debate scheduled for June 27th. With Donald Trump now a convicted felon, there’s only one story that could overshadow all the fallout from that, and that is the Veepstakes. There is every possibility that a Trump VP selection could be an effective way of changing the narrative. He could announce any week now, which makes GOP Vice Presidential odds a fun market. With so many names, there’s immense value to be had.
Make sure to check out TheLines.com’s 2024 election odds page for updated odds and market tracking.
2024 GOP Vice Presidential Odds
Prices via the PredictIt legal political betting exchange:
| Candidate | Price | Sportsbook Odds Equivalent |
| Tim Scott | $0.23 | +335 |
| Doug Burgum | $0.13 | +669 |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | $0.11 | +809 |
| JD Vance | $0.11 | +809 |
| Marco Rubio | $0.10 | +900 |
| Elise Stefanik | $0.08 | +1150 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | $0.07 | +1329 |
| Nikki Haley | $0.05 | +1900 |
| Vikek Ramaswamy | $0.05 | +1900 |
| Tom Cotton | $0.05 | +1900 |
| Ron DeSantis | $0.04 | +2400 |
| Kristi Noem | $0.03 | +3233 |
Trump VP Odds Analysis
Let’s focus on what Trump needs to do with this pick first before we get to the terrible options at the top of this odds board. Trump lost 2020 because educated, suburban, socially liberal voters trended Democratic. Democratic gains in suburban and exurban counties won Joe Biden Arizona and Georgia and helped flip back the Rust Belt trio. These same voters elected Democratic Senators in 2022, stopping Herschel Walker, Dr. Oz, and Blake Masters from entering the Senate. So, that’s where Trump needs to stop the bleeding.
Despite this, somehow, the top-four choices for the GOP nomination are these four.
The (Vulnerable) Favorites
Tim Scott is so religious that he was a virgin well into his time in public life. (There were also persistent rumors of homosexuality, which he denied. He later proposed to his girlfriend after less than a year.)
Marco Rubio opposed gay marriage in 2015 and promised to appoint Supreme Court justices who would undo it. He’s also registered to vote in the same state as Trump. This would cause a Constitutional complication unless one of them changed their registration. Article II of the Constitution bans Electors to the Electoral College from voting for candidates for both President and Vice President from the same state.
“The Electors shall meet in their respective States, and vote by Ballot for two Persons, of whom one at least shall not be an Inhabitant of the same State with themselves.“
Article II, Section I of the U.S. Constitution
JD Vance, who underran Donald Trump in 2022, opposes gay marriage and abortion, wants to limit divorces, and also wants to ban porn. He also called Trump America’s Hitler in 2016, which seems like fodder for a Democrat ad campaign or twelve.
Doug Burgum also exists. If you don’t know who the former Governor of North Dakota is, don’t worry, nobody else does either. Burgum, at least, has never done anything controversial, but he would be the safest, lamest, and most boring VP pick in our lifetimes and give Trump nothing.
It’s also been well-briefed that Trump understands it needs to be a woman, which, as far as we know, none of these four are.
Sarah Huckabee Sanders was Trump’s Press Secretary, where she was mostly bad. She won the Governorship of Arkansas on the back of her last name. That said, the newest political nepo baby signed a bill allowing for a “Monument To The Unborn” to be erected at the Arkansas capitol. If Trump wants help in the suburbs that monument is more an in-kind contribution to Biden’s campaign.
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If Not The Favorites, Then …
Elise Stefanik is my bet for the gig, mostly because she’s the least bad option.
Tom Cotton has jumped above the rest because of a well-placed leak in the Times designed to remind people that Tom Cotton exists. Given he has attacked Pentagon policy on abortion, criticized Trump’s foreign policy while Trump was in office, and is less charismatic than the average dining room table, he won’t be picked.
Trump has already ruled out Vivek Ramaswamy. Meanwhile, former Democratic Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard would be a fun pick, but the Congresswoman who met with Assad and once proudly worked for an anti-gay rights, pro-conversion therapy group would amplify Trump’s suburban problem.
Stefanik is the only option who isn’t completely insane, doesn’t have a record of horrendously off-putting comments on abortion or gay rights, and is loyal enough that Trump might put her on the ticket. She’s the candidate almost by default. As the No. 4 House Republican, she’s a decent fundraiser. And, at the end of the day? There’s no great case against her. Nobody else can say that.
Longshots
Kristi Noem has to be mentioned as a former leader in this category. The South Dakota governor never made as much sense to me as her market price. Noem is a bad electoral performer who nearly lost ruby-red South Dakota in 2018. Noem was never going to solve Trump’s issues with suburbanites and social moderates.
Plus, writing in her memoir about killing her 14-month-old dog made her chances as dead as the dog. For Noem, her best hope is a more graceful funeral for her VP hopes than the backyard burial she gave her puppy.
Nikki Haley needs to be here as well because she is objectively the correct choice. Popular with Biden-supporting centrists, Haley would be Trump’s best choice. She would give Trump the best chance of limiting further suburban erosion. Haley is the only choice who could genuinely mollify voters mad about the Dobbs decision. Trump said he won’t pick her because he’s mad she stayed in the primary, much to Democrats’ relief.
Marjorie Taylor Greene would be a Godsend for Democrats, but Ds likely aren’t lucky enough for Trump to be that dumb.
Best of luck if you decide to bet on Trump VP odds!
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