Donald Trump Odds Before Tonight’s Republican Presidential Debate

The first Presidential primary debate for Republican candidates is Wednesday. Donald Trump is the favorite among the GOP in odds to be the next President, but he will likely not be on the debate stage, after he was indicted for a fourth time. The latest indictment is in Georgia, for efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. Trump and 18 others have been charged with 41 counts relating to a multi-state conspiracy to keep Donald Trump in office after he lost the 2020 election.

With another round of indictments on the books, Donald Trump’s odds to be the next Republican nominee and President remain mostly unchanged. He’s -280 at DraftKings Sportsbook in Ontario and $0.57 on PredictIt to be the next GOP nominee and +200 at DK Ontario and $0.30 at PredictIt to win the general election. The question is, should he be?

Donald Trump Odds Movement

To Win Republican Nomination

Date	Price	Odds Equivalent
May 23	$0.58	-138
June 9	$0.49	+104
July 19	$0.53	-113
August 23	$0.57	-133

To Be The Next President

Date	Price	Odds Equivalent
May 23	$0.34	+194
June 13	$0.27	+270
July 17	$0.36	+178
August 23	$0.30	+233

Donald Trump Odds After Georgia Indictment

Trump’s odds to win the nomination have shortened, while his odds to be elected President have lengthened.

Trump is being charged with 13 counts in the Georgia indictment linked to his efforts to overturn election results for the state’s 16 Electoral College votes in 2020. Trump and his fellow indictees attempted a mass pressure campaign to force Georgia officials to commit fraud. This included telling the Georgia Secretary of State on a recorded phone call to “find” the votes necessary to flip the state.

That Trump was calling on January 2, nearly a month after the state re-certified Biden as the winner of Georgia (and therefore the election) shows how illegitimate the call was. Trump described the call as a “perfect phone call”, a description the indictment calls into question.

Also indicted with Trump includes former Trump Chief of Staff and former Congressman Mark Meadows. Additionally, former New York Mayor Rudy Guiliani is indicted, who served on Trump’s legal team that went 0-63 in legal filings to change 2020 election results around the country. Guiliani called for violence at the January 6 riot, telling followers to have a “trial by combat”.

Other Indictments

This indictment joins the other three Trump criminal cases Trump is facing. All in, Trump is facing four trials in the next couple of years, including:

• State charges in New York for falsifying business records and making hush money payments to silence a porn star during the 2016 campaign to aide his campaign,
• Federal charges in Florida for illegally holding classified documents at his Mar-A-Lago resort, including in public areas, and showing classified documents to individuals without clearance,
• And Federal charges in Washington DC for attempting to steal the 2020 election, stay in office illegally, and end American democracy.

He has three trials scheduled for 2024 even before the Georgia case, meaning he will be spending a large amount of his time that would be otherwise used to campaign in courtrooms. It’s worth remembering that even if Donald Trump is convicted in any of these cases, he will still be eligible to serve as President. There are no restrictions on the basis of criminal record for the office.

Primary Impacts

A CBS/YouGov poll post-indictment has Donald Trump at 62% and leading Ron DeSantis by a margin of 46%. With DeSantis a non-factor for the GOP nomination at this point and everyone else stuck in single digits, Donald Trump is going to be the nominee.

The question of whether or not any of the others can have more success than DeSantis if they manage to isolate themselves as the Not-Trump candidate does exist, but it’s clear they wouldn’t. Tim Scott is trying to make a run at assembling Ted Cruz’s old coalition that won the Texas Senator the Iowa caucus in 2016. Vivek Ramaswamy is running to either get a cabinet job or run for Ohio Governor in 2026 by creating a name for himself. And Mike Pence and Chris Christie are running for the sake of it, because they clearly hate Trump and would like to cleanse their consciences by using their last campaigns to take down Trump.

If this field had a credible anti-Trump candidate Trump might be vulnerable. But against a field of no-names, has-beens, and obscure trivia answers that this primary represents, Trump will be fine. He will win the nomination at a canter, and become the first major party nominee under indictment in history.

General Election Impacts

It remains very hard to see how Trump will be more popular in 2024 than he was in 2020 when he lost to Joe Biden. Since the last time Donald Trump was on the ballot, he has attempted to steal an election and stay in power despite losing. His Supreme Court appointments have ended a woman’s right to choose in many states across the U.S. and severely limited it in many others. And now, he’s been indicted four times.

Yes, Joe Biden is old and not very popular. Donald Trump will be spending his entire 2024 trying to stay out of prison, potentially in court rooms and not on the campaign trail. The idea he will suddenly be more popular in 2024 with four indictments and three pro-life SCOTUS appointments seems about as laughable as the idea that he would get away with trying to steal Georgia’s electoral votes.

Trump’s going to be the GOP nominee. Biden is the clear favorite to win in the general election. Bet accordingly.