2024 Election Odds Movement After Donald Trump Felony Convictions

, ,
Written By Evan Scrimshaw | Last Updated
Trump conviction odds
Credit: Associated Press

Donald Trump’s conviction on 34 counts of fraud has thrown a wrench in the Presidential election. With Trump now a convicted felon in the New York hush money case for falsifying business records, there has been some movement in the odds. Post-Trump conviction odds have seen Joe Biden close a slim deficit to get to a virtual coin flip vs. Trump, with both options around the same price to be elected President in November. 

With competing theories as to how important this conviction is, the impact on the true post-Trump conviction odds will vary. Make sure to bookmark our Presidential Election odds page to track the latest movement.

Donald Trump odds movement after felony convictions

ZOOM: MARKET:

NAME ODDS PROBABILITY
Donald Trump -118 54%
Joe Biden +127 44%
Gavin Newsom +1150 8%
Robert Kennedy Jr. +1900 5%
Kamala Harris +2400 4%
Nikki Haley +9900 1%
Pete Buttigieg +9900 1%
Ron DeSantis +9900 1%
Tim Scott +9900 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy +9900 1%

Implied probabilities are calculated using data offered by PredictIt.
Last Updated: 2024-06-19 13:00:02 PDT.

Around Thursday at 1 p.m., Biden was at about at about a 44% implied probability to win on the legal betting exchange PredictIt. In terms of sports betting odds, that would be about +127. After Trump was convicted, Biden rose as high as 49% (+104) but has since settled at 47% (+113) Friday morning.

Biden gained when the initial conviction came down, but there’s been no real swing since then. Those putting money into this exchange still make him a small underdog. The lack of a clear answer about how impactful this is has blunted the swing. When polling post-conviction comes in, expect the potential for market volatility.

Make sure to be aware of what pollsters release before betting. Partisan polls in the immediate aftermath will likely be more about shifting narratives than honestly assessing the market. Plainly, if you’re looking to bet Biden, wait until a GOP-aligned pollster shows no impact and get the better price that will likely be available. 

Will Conviction Impact the Trump Campaign?

The “smart” take on this conviction is that this doesn’t matter, in the same way that attacks on John McCain and the Access Hollywood tape and calling women too ugly to sexually assault and a myriad of other scandals didn’t matter. It’s certainly directionally correct in that this will not have a huge impact. Donald Trump will not fall to 31% because of this.

He will remain the GOP nominee. He will continue to have a credible path to a second term.

That said, there’s no guarantee that this take will be correct. Voters do not pay nearly as much attention to politics as political tragics do. Donald Trump is the first former President to be convicted, and there’s never been an election with one candidate on a court calendar to be sentenced for felony convictions.

In 2022, the Dobbs decision leaked, confirming the Supreme Court’s intent to repeal Roe. The GOP paid no political price when the leak occurred in the polls. This fact led to many confidently stating there would be a limited impact when the decision came. Democrats would outperform expectations in five special elections through August and gain a net Senate seat in November.

One ABC/Ipsos poll said 16% of Trump voters would reconsider voting for Trump if he were convicted. This, plus the 4% who said they’d never vote for him if he were, represents about 15 million people. Even if that 4% number is the real penalty, that’s three million Americans who voted for Trump in 2020 who might not anymore. In an election where Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin were each won by less than 21,000 votes, this could matter.

It’s possible that this effect fades. It’s possible that Joe Biden’s age is too much for some to overcome. It is possible that the Middle East or inflation or whatever else causes Democratic voters to stay home.

But this allows Democrats to call Donald Trump a convicted felon in every interview and every ad from now until Election Day. It seems unlikely that will help Trump.

Thursday was a bad day for Trump. Donald Trump odds to be elected still make him a favorite Friday morning but have moved closer towards Joe Biden, and the former President is now a convicted felon. It’s not a slam dunk for Biden. But it was still a bad day for Trump.

RELATED ARTICLES