Dolphins vs. Patriots: Week 15 NFL Betting Preview – December 20, 2020

Posted By Staff on December 15, 2020

The Miami Dolphins (8-5) host the New England Patriots (6-7) on Sunday, December 20, in matchup between AFC East foes at Hard Rock Stadium. New England is a  underdog and the over/under is set at .

The betting insights in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of December 14, 2020, 2:41 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Dolphins vs Patriots Betting Odds

Dolphins vs Patriots Props

Looking to bet on props for this game? Use our prop search tool to find the best odds across legal sportsbooks in the US.

Betting the Total (Over/Under)

  • Dolphins games have gone over 41.5 points on eight occasions this season (61.5% of matchups).
  • New England’s games have gone over 41.5 points on six occasions (46.2% of games).
  • These two teams score a combined average of 46.7 points per game, higher than the total for this matchup by 5.2 points.
  • These teams allow a combined 40.3 points per game, 1.2 fewer points than this matchup’s over/under.
  • Dolphins games average 44.2 total points per game this season, equal to the over/under for this matchup.
  • The average total for Patriots games is 42.8 points, 1.3 more than this game’s over/under.
  • The Dolphins score the 15th-most points in the NFL this season, while the Patriots’ offense puts up the 26th-most.
  • Miami is the league’s second-ranked scoring defense while New England is the seventh-ranked.
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Dolphins Betting Insights

  • Miami has compiled a 10-3 record against the spread this season.
  • The Dolphins are 3-1 ATS when favored by at least 2.5 points.
  • Five of Miami’s 13 games this year have gone over the point total (38.5% of its outings).

Patriots Betting Insights

  • Most of New England’s games this year — nine out of 13 — have finished under the point total (69.2%).
  • New England has put together a 6-7 record against the spread this season.
  • The Patriots have an ATS record of 2-3 when playing as at least 2.5-point underdogs.

Dolphins vs Patriots: Head to Head

Dolphins vs Patriots: Last 3 Meetings
Date Favorite Home Team Spread Total Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Yards Result
9/13/2020 Patriots Patriots -7.50 41.50 -345 +295 357-269 NE 21-11 NE
12/29/2019 Patriots Patriots -17 45 -1250 +900 389-352 MIA 27-24 MIA
9/15/2019 Patriots Dolphins -18 48.5 -1250 +900 381-184 NE 43-0 NE

Check out TheLines YouTube channel to learn more about betting tips and picks for this week’s NFL action.

When the Dolphins Have the Ball

  • The Dolphins, on average, score 3.9 more points per game this season (25.4) than the Patriots allow (21.5).
  • In games where Miami score at least 25.4 points this season, they are 5-2 overall and 7-0 against the spread.
  • New England is 5-1 overall and 5-1 against the spread this season in games where they allow fewer than 21.5 points.
  • The Dolphins offense has averaged 323.4 total yards per game this season, 19.1 yards less than the 342.5 the Patriots defense has allowed.
  • On average, the Dolphins pick up 5.2 yards per play and the Patriots give up 5.7.
  • In contests where the Miami offense totals at least their average yard output this season, they are 5-1 against the spread and 3-3 overall.
  • When New England allows fewer total yards to opposing offenses than their season average, they are 4-4 against the spread and 4-4 overall this season.
  • The Patriots defense has given up an average of 124 yards per game to opposing running games this season. That is 28.8 more yards than the Dolphins have gained running the football in 2020 (95.2).
  • In games where the Miami rushing attack runs for at least their season average, the Dolphins are 5-2 overall and 6-1 against the spread.
  • This season, when the New England defense allows opponents to pick up less than 124 yards on the ground, they are 3-3 against the spread and 4-2 overall.
  • The Dolphins have turned the ball over 1.2 times per game this season, while the Patriots have averaged 1.5 takeaways per contest.
  • When Miami turns the football over 1.2 times or fewer this season, they are 5-3 overall and 7-1 against the spread.
  • New England is 3-2 against the spread and 3-2 overall this season when they force at least 1.5 turnovers in a game.

When the Patriots Have the Ball

  • The Patriots score just 2.5 more points per game (21.3) than the Dolphins allow (18.8).
  • When New England records at least 21.3 points, it is 3-2 against the spread and 4-1 overall.
  • This season, Miami has a 7-0 record against the spread and a 5-2 record overall in games when it holds opponents to 25.4 or fewer points.
  • The Patriots average 29.5 fewer yards per game (332.9), than the Dolphins give up per outing (362.4). On average, the Patriots pick up 5.3 yards per play, while the Dolphins give up 5.7 per play.
  • Miami has a 6-1 record ATS and a 6-1 record overall when holding its opponents to 362.4 yards or less.
  • This season, the Patriots average 147.5 rushing yards per game, 27.3 more per game than the Dolphins allow per contest (120.2).
  • When New England rushes for at least 147.5 yards, it compiled a 5-2 ATS record and a 5-2 overall record.
  • This season, Miami is 7-1 against the spread and 5-3 overall when holding opponents to no more than 120.2 rushing yards.
  • This year, the Patriots turn the ball over 1.4 times per game, 0.5 fewer turnovers per game than the 1.9 the Dolphins force on average.
  • New England is 5-4 against the spread and 5-4 overall when it turns the ball over 1.4 or fewer times.
  • When it forces 1.9 or more turnovers, Miami has a 6-1 record against the spread and a 5-2 record overall.

Get the best betting breakdowns and picks on TheLines sports betting podcast

Dolphins Players to Watch

  • Salvon Ahmed has rushed for 166 yards on 40 attempts (55.3 yards per game) while scoring one touchdown in three games.
  • DeVante Parker has reeled in 56 passes to lead the team with 677 yards while scoring four touchdowns. He has been targeted 89 times and averages 52.1 yards per game over 13 outings.
  • Mike Gesicki’s statline this year shows 44 grabs for 602 yards and six touchdowns in 13 games. He puts up 46.3 receiving yards per game and has been targeted 68 times.
  • This year, Jakeem Grant has caught 31 passes on 48 targets for 330 yards and one touchdown, averaging 25.4 receiving yards per game.
  • Emmanuel Ogbah has registered a team-leading eight sacks, while adding five TFL and 37 tackles over 13 games.
  • Jerome Baker has racked up 87 tackles, five TFL, and five sacks this year.
  • Xavien Howard has intercepted nine passes to lead the team while adding 40 tackles, one TFL, and 17 passes defended.

Patriots Players to Watch

  • This year, Cam Newton has collected 2,172 passing yards (167.1 yards per game) while going 199-for-301 (66.1% completion percentage) and throwing five touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 13 games. He has added 451 rushing yards on 113 carries with 11 touchdowns, averaging 34.7 yards per game.
  • Damien Harris has taken 137 attempts for a team-leading 691 rushing yards (69.1 yards per game) while scoring two touchdowns in 10 games.
  • Damiere Byrd has been targeted 66 times and has 42 catches to lead the team with 566 yards (43.5 ypg) and scored one touchdown in 13 games this season.
  • Jakobi Meyers’ statline this year shows 42 catches for 505 yards and zero touchdowns over 11 games. He puts up 45.9 receiving yards per game and has been targeted 58 times.
  • N’Keal Harry has collected 277 yards on 29 passes with two touchdowns, averaging 25.2 yards per game on 50 targets.
  • Chase Winovich has collected a team-leading 3.5 sacks, while adding four TFL, 37 tackles, and one interception over 13 games.
  • Adrian Phillips has totaled 92 tackles, six TFL, and two interceptions to lead the team in tackles this season.

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