Best Dolphins Anytime Touchdown Prop Bets Saturday: Will Tyreek Hill Score NFL Wild Card ATTD?
Wild Card odds conclude Saturday, with the Miami Dolphins heading up to Kansas City to play the Chiefs. With extreme cold weather sweeping the midwest and north, betting sites have adjusted for less offense due to the weather. The Dolphins’ deep injury report is also a concern. That said, getting the Dolphins anytime touchdown market correct could be more profitable than usual, with players at less than 100% and cold temps creating better prices.
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Chiefs Vs. Dolphins Anytime Touchdown Odds
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First TD Scorer Odds
dolphins Anytime Touchdown Strategy
Let’s start with the Dolphins injury situation before we get into the weather. WR1 Tyreek Hill is on the injury report this week, but Mike McDaniel said he’ll be fine for Saturday. WR2 Jaylen Waddle and RB1 Raheem Mostert should play this weekend, after missing the Baltimore and Buffalo games but both are officially questionable. Presumably, they’ll be more than mere decoys on Sunday after McDaniel was optimistic about their status Wednesday.
When betting on the anytime touchdown market, the reappearance of Waddle and Mostert is important, whether you want to bet them or not. Mostert playing gives De’Von Achane bettors a better price, and Waddle’s appearance does stop Tyreek Hill’s price from getting too steep. It also sharply limits the chances of the next tier of Dolphins targets – Durham Smythe, Braxton Berrios, Cedrick Wilson, and Jeff Wilson.
Lastly, we must acknowledge weather is a big story – 16 MPH winds and temperatures hovering around zero degrees during the game could limit offense. That said, the winds aren’t that bad. So, I’m skeptical that they’ll really end up being an issue for the offenses in this game.
The Chiefs were third in pass defense by EPA and 28th against the rush, which should inform this slate of bets as well.
dolphins anytime touchdown bets to consider
RB De’Von Achane ()
Achane had taken an increased share of the offense even before Raheem Mostert got hurt. He has nine TDs in games that he and Mostert played this season. With Mostert hobbled coming into this game, Achane will likely get more of the workload. Achane has been the more efficient runner this year as well. Gaining three yards more per carry than Mostert, Achane deserves the bulk of the work in this game, even beyond the health concerns.
The Chiefs are so much better against the pass than against the run; plus, the weather concerns help Achane. His game-breaking speed, like he showed against Buffalo, could be vital to winning this game. As a goalline threat, as a pass catcher, and as a home run rusher, Achane has multiple routes into the end zone and multiple ways to be given the ball in space.
McDaniel is an offensive wizard, and Achane is one of the few reasonably healthy Dolphins weapons. They’re gonna use him in high-leverage and creative ways. They have to.
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WR Tyreek Hill ()
7.5 receptions for 112 yards per game is a truly incredible accomplishment for a player who has played for a team with a lot of weapons. Even when the Dolphins have been flush with options, Tyreek has been saturated with targets. There’s even more of chance he will be leaned on with Waddle limited.
Tyreek’s anytime touchdown case is locked solid on its own merits. Tua oftentimes has tunnel vision for Tyreek, like he did in targeting him 13 times last week. That said, there are also some Narrative Street reasons why he’s going to be well bet. In a playoff game against his old team, in his old stadium, traded because they couldn’t afford him anymore, with his old team now in a tailspin because most of KC’s current WRs have underwhelmed? He seems primed to perform.
That said, the actual reason to bet him is his volume. I don’t think Waddle will run a full route tree or play a full snap share. And if that’s the case, the Tua funnel to Tyreek will live to see another week.
Dolphins Defense or Special Teams (+700)
We saw on Christmas the Raiders managed to score twice defensively, and while this is highly unlikely most weeks, this Chiefs offense has certainly struggled. QBs tend to throw picks when they have to force things or have a miscommunication with receivers. Dak Prescott has limited his turnovers this year because the offensive scheme is better, and he has more open receivers. Mahomes doesn’t have anyone making his life easier these days.
Mahomes should have receivers gaining separation, but he doesn’t. He’s having to try and make plays that aren’t there, and that increases the chances of a pick-six. Throw in the wind, and this is a bet worth making at the price.
2023 Dolphins TD SCorer Stats
| Player | GP Games Played | ATT Rushing Attempts | YDS Rushing Yards | YDS/C Yards Per Carry | YDS/G Rushing Yards Per Game | TDS Rushing Touchdowns |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De’Von Achane – RB | 5 | 56 | 183 | 3.3 | 36.6 | 1 |
| Jaylen Wright – RB | 4 | 29 | 139 | 4.8 | 34.8 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert – RB | 2 | 25 | 89 | 3.6 | 44.5 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley – QB | 2 | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 23.5 | 1 |
| Jeff Wilson Jr. – RB | 5 | 8 | 40 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill – WR | 5 | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa – QB | 2 | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle – WR | 5 | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Tim Boyle – QB | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Skylar Thompson – QB | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith – TE | 5 | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | -0.2 | 0 |
| Player | GP Games Played | TGTS Targets | REC Receptions | YDS Receiving Yards | CTP% Catch Percentage | YDS/R Yards Per Reception | YAC/G Yards After Catch Per Game | TDS Receiving Touchdowns |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill – WR | 5 | 39 | 23 | 286 | 59.0% | 12.4 | 28.0 | 1 |
| Jaylen Waddle – WR | 5 | 28 | 21 | 258 | 75.0% | 12.3 | 19.0 | 0 |
| De’Von Achane – RB | 5 | 23 | 21 | 186 | 91.3% | 8.9 | 41.2 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith – TE | 5 | 21 | 14 | 140 | 66.7% | 10.0 | 13.6 | 0 |
| Julian Hill – TE | 5 | 5 | 3 | 30 | 60.0% | 10.0 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge – WR | 2 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 100.0% | 30.0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert – RB | 2 | 5 | 4 | 28 | 80.0% | 7.0 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Tanner Conner – TE | 5 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 75.0% | 5.3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Grant DuBose – WR | 2 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 33.3% | 13.0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson Jr. – RB | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 100.0% | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe – TE | 5 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 28.6% | 5.5 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Malik Washington – WR | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 100.0% | 8.0 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright – RB | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Erik Ezukanma – WR | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios – WR | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. – WR | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 |
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