DFS Most-Owned Projections & SuperDraft Deposit Bonus: NFL Week 1
Week 1 of the NFL season is upon us, and that means we’re starting to see who is likely to be some of the highest-owned players across various fantasy formats. With the Week 1 main slate upon us, we know that DFS ownership projections and sportsbook player prop odds can be correlated. With that in mind, let’s look at a few of the likely highest-owned DFS players this week and see whether they’re primed to boom or about to bust.
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Week 1 Justin Jefferson Odds Boost
SuperDraft Prop: O/U 0.5 Receiving Yards
We’re slightly cheating with this one, because SuperDraft is giving users essentially free play. By making Jefferson only need to get a single yard, every Week 1 ticket just gets juicier. Whether you want to use Jefferson to turn a parlay into a de facto solo bet or make him the lynchpin of a bigger parlay, Jefferson Over 0.5 yards has to be everywhere.
In the betting world, Jefferson’s status as the expected WR1 that’s been cemented over Draft Season means expectations are high for him. That said, the Bucs don’t pose an easy matchup for him. 12th in the league in pass defense EPA last year, the Vikings could struggle to move the ball, especially if Kirk Cousins doesn’t improve on his 20th in Dropback EPA from last year.
If the Vikings do score it’ll likely be at the hands of Jefferson, but if the Vikings, oft cited as the ultimate regression candidate, fall flat, so could Jefferson. While he’s essentially a free square on SuperDraft, be vary in other formats.
3 Names To Note In Most-Owned DFS Ownership Projections
Saints RB Jamaal Williams
Williams is the guy in New Orleans for now, with Alvin Kamara suspended for the beginning of the season. After an impressive season in Detroit, Williams’ value won’t be higher than this week. With New Orleans favored this week and Derek Carr still settling into a role, this seems like a smash week for Williams.
With the fact that Kamara’s coming back after three weeks, the Saints have no incentive to manage Williams’ workload, which means a steady diet of carries this week. Whether on SuperDraft or in other formats, Williams projects to be a popular play this week.
Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker
Walker will be the beneficiary of one of the best game scripts of Week 1, especially if LA is without Cooper Kupp. Pete Carroll’s natural tendency is to run the ball anyway, and with the Hawks the fourth-biggest favorites on the board, they’ll likely have the game script to justify his conservative tendencies.
If Kupp ends up playing and is 100%, then Walker could be in a more neutral or even negative script. That said, it’s overwhelmingly likely he will miss this game and the Rams offense will be deprived of their only valuable skill position player. With Matt Stafford likely worse than the last time we saw him because of age, the Rams pose little threat without Kupp. And in that case, Walker will be given more than enough carries to slice through the Rams’ defense.
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson
Lamar is an odd choice to be this highly favored because this is a rare case where Lamar’s greatest skill is going to be least important. Against a Texans team that does not project to come out of the gate strong, Lamar isn’t likely going to have to run. With his new contract, it’s likely that Baltimore is going to try and encourage Lamar to avoid needless injury risk by running when he doesn’t have to. And if he has to beat CJ Stroud in his NFL debut something has gone seriously wrong.
This game is in Baltimore, Houston is the biggest underdog on the slate, and Lamar just signed what was at the time the richest contract in NFL history. There is limited upside on his rushing for a guy who has missed the ends of two straight seasons with injuries. Lamar will have to use his legs this season, but not against the Texans. Relying on his rushing upside in any form of betting or fantasy is a recipe for disaster, especially as one of the most popular QBs in DFS ownership projections.
Best of luck navigating DFS ownership in Week 1!
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