Broncos In-Season Win Total Among NFL’s Lowest Heading To Home Stretch

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on November 28, 2022
Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos entered the 2022 season with high expectations. With a win total of 10 (-110 both ways), they ranked in a tie for sixth-highest in the NFL. That place them alongside the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers, two teams that enter the home stretch with real Super Bowl hopes.

As for the Broncos, they’ve sunk to 3-8 after a loss to the Panthers, perhaps their worst performance of the season to date. Amid this total collapse, what do in-season NFL win total markets have to say about their prospects going forward?

Denver Broncos Betting Markets After Week 12

MarketDraftKingsFanDuel
Over wins5.5 (+150)4.5 (-180)
Under wins5.5 (-200)4.5 (+155)
Make playoffs+10000No market

The fact that FanDuel Sportsbook has not even bothered to post a “Make Playoffs” market for the Broncos tells it all about this season.

Obviously, the more interesting thing to track — and potentially place a bet on — is the Broncos’ prospects for the remainder of the season. Both FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook expect the Broncos to wind up 5-12, though they differ in how they’ve opted to reflect that in their markets.

Naturally, schedule will play a role. Let’s take a look at what the Broncos have remaining.

By opponent winning percentage, that’s the sixth-toughest slate remaining. Certainly, getting to six wins and clearing all of their win total markets will be no picnic. The team caught a break with the Rams collapsing even worse amid an avalanche of injuries. But other than that, the Broncos will likely only be favored against Arizona, and that line figures to be close.

Is there any hope the team can turn it around or should bettors be looking to kick them while they’re down?

Can Denver Broncos Finish Strong?

TheLines staff does not harbor high hopes for this team, tabbing them 29th in the latest edition of NFL power rankings. Rumors of locker room discord and the worst-performing offense in the league (28th in EPA/play) relative to expectations hang like anchors over this team’s collective neck.

Still, one can find positive signs in the team’s stats that portend better things.

Entering Week 12, the Broncos had +0.3 net yards per play. That’s one of the better marks in the NFL and ranks ahead of teams like the Titans, Chargers and Vikings. Each sits squarely in the playoff hunt, at the least.

While the offense has undoubtedly been abysmal, the defense ranks No. 3 in EPA/play. They boast PFF’s No. 2 coverage unit and No. 7 pass rush. Those aren’t usually the makings of a 3-8 team.

Even the offense hasn’t been the worst ever — between the 20s. The issue has been red zone conversion. There, the Broncos rank dead last with a ghastly 37.5%. That stats seems like it should regress. But, for whatever reason, punching the ball in after drives has seemed impossible for these guys.

Coaching has not helped, and rumors place Nathaniel Hackett squarely on the hot seat. Given that first-year head coaches are rarely fired, one shouldn’t expect a change there just yet, though. Betting on the Broncos to turn it around is betting on the team and coaches they have, in all likelihood.

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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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