Demarcus Robinson: Super Bowl Props vs Buccaneers

Demarcus Robinson’s Kansas City Chiefs meet the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Super Bowl on Sunday at Raymond James Stadium. Here’s some insights and tips around Robinson’s receiving yards prop bet.

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Demarcus Robinson Super Bowl Player Props

Demarcus Robinson Props: What You Need To Know

It was reported Monday that Demarcus Robinson was placed on the COVID-reserve list along with center Daniel Kilgore after a team barber tested positive for the virus. His status remains uncertain for Super Bowl LV.

The Kansas City Chiefs run “11” personnel the third-most in the NFL (behind Cincinnati, Pittsburgh). As a quick refresher, 11 personnel means there’s one running back, one tight end, and three receivers on the field. With Travis Kelce being one of their best weapons, it’s rare to see KC run four wide (just three snaps all season), already limiting Robinson’s time on the football field.

Robinson sees the most action as a rotational WR3 and when other players are injured (recently Sammy Watkins). However, he does find himself on the field roughly 65% of the time (sometimes as high as 80%) and, more recently, around 70-80% of offensive snaps. This has translated into some games with a sizable target share; six times this season Robinson has been targeted five or more times.

Robinson’s average depth of target (aDOT), 8.7 yards, is second-most on the team to Tyreek Hill and his air yards percentage, 14.1%, is fourth on the team. He is utilized in two ways: over the top and in the screen game. Robinson’s yardage and touchdown props are gambles. Like many players on the Kansas City offense, he’s a home run hitter that’s boom or bust. His last time out against the Bucs, Robinson was targeted six times and hauled in five catches for just 36 yards.

Demarcus Robinson: Super Bowl Prop Checklist

Receiving yards: O/U 13.5 (-115)
Receptions: Over 1.5 (+110), Under 1.5 (-141)
Longest reception: O/U 10.5 (-110)
To score a touchdown (+400)
To score 2+ touchdowns (+3300)
To score 3+ touchdowns (+12500)
To score first touchdown (+3000)
To score last touchdown (+3000)
To score first half touchdown (+600)
To score second half touchdown (+650)

Best Super Bowl Prop Bets

Robinson’s Game-by-Game Stats

Week	Opponent	Off. Snaps	Targets	Receptions	Yards	TDs
Week 1	Texans	33	6	3	20	0
Week 2	@Chargers	48	4	3	28	0
Week 3	@Ravens	41	1	0	0	0
Week 4	Patriots	23	0	0	0	0
Week 5	Raiders	49	4	2	2	0
Week 6	@Bills	69	6	5	69	0
Week 7	@Broncos	34	1	1	4	0
Week 8	Jets	36	5	4	63	1
Week 9	Panthers	50	3	3	34	1
Week 11	@Raiders	63	8	6	44	0
Week 12	@Buccaneers	57	6	5	36	0
Week 13	Broncos	37	2	2	39	0
Week 14	@Dolphins	33	1	1	13	0
Week 15	@Saints	50	3	2	27	0
Week 16	Falcons	41	2	2	29	1
Week 17	Chargers	47	7	6	58	0
AFC Divisional Round	Browns	48	3	1	14	0
AFC Championship Game	Bills	42	0	0	0	0

Receiving Yards Betting Tips

Robinson is averaging 26.7 receiving yards per game, 4.8 fewer than the over/under of 31.5 set for Sunday’s matchup.
In 38.9% of his games this season (seven of 18), Robinson has put up more than 31.5 receiving yards.
The Buccaneers defense has allowed opposing receivers to rack up the 10th-most yards in the NFL this season (269.4 per game).
Robinson’s season average of 26.7 receiving yards per game is 3.9 less than the average over/under of his prop bets, 30.6.
In only seven of his 18 games (38.9%), Robinson has surpassed his average receiving yards prop bet of 30.6 yards.
Robinson has hit the over on receiving yards prop bets in nine of his 15 games (60%).

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Odds and insights reflect consensus player props available as of January 28, 2021. CLICK HERE to place your bet on Demarcus Robinson or the Kansas City Chiefs at DraftKings Sportsbook.