He’s had a fairly quiet playoffs (10 catches but just 81 total yards), but tight end Dallas Goedert still rates as an important weapon in the Philadelphia Eagles passing game. As part of TheLines‘ coverage of Super Bowl 57, we take a look at Dallas Goedert props. What does the market think about his chances for a big game against the Kansas City Chiefs?
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Dallas Goedert Player Props
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Dallas Goedert Receiving Yardage Prop: O/U /
The Chiefs did not have an especially good defense when it came to covering tight ends this season. According to Football Outsiders, they ranked 19th in DVOA allowed to opposing TEs, giving up an average of 7.6 catches for 50.4 yards.
What’s interesting about that is that on paper, the Chiefs have a pretty decent group of coverage players in the middle. While Nick Bolton is best known for his hard-hitting run defense, he has the speed to hold his own and had a decent year in coverage. Willie Gay Jr. has also been more of a coverage player due to his own wheels. And safeties Justin Reid and Juan Thornhill are both more lauded for their coverage skills than their run support.
Against any of those players, Goedert’s massive dimensions — he goes 6-foot-5, 256 pounds — do give him an edge. Each of those Chiefs stands shorter than 6-foot-1. That may give Goedert a leg up in the red zone in particular.
The biggest obstacle to Goedert having a big receiving game might just be Jalen Hurts’ arm. More specifically, his shoulder. Hurts has averaged a mere 168 YPG since returning from injury. And lest you think its a function of big leads and low volume, his per-attempt number has plunged from 8 to 6.
It’s an open question whether he’s healthy enough to have a big game throwing the ball. If he hovers in the sub-200 range again, Goedert is very unlikely to find his way over this modest number.
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Receptions, Longest Reception
Now, the low passing yardage from Hurts has not brought down Goedert’s target share or receptions. With 18 targets and 16 catches in three games since Hurts returned, Goedert has commanded a pretty large share of the available volume. Thus, the market is still rightfully respecting his ability to rack up catches (market total of ), even if it doesn’t think they will do a ton of damage.
To wit, here are his last three games’ worth of average depth of target: 3.9, 4.8, 3.5. These are tiny numbers, although Goedert ceded some of his longer routes this season due to the presence of AJ Brown, dropping from 8.5 last year to 6.1. The current offensive plan, for whatever reason, just seems to call for Goedert to serve a short-range target.
The Chiefs certainly don’t have Fred Warner or Dre Greenlaw in their linebacking corps. Still, the fact Goedert seems confined to short routes makes his longest reception prop of O/U / worth a look on the under.
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Dallas Goedert YES Touchdown Prop:
This game has a pretty high total of , and with Philly installed as the slight favorite, scoring chances should be plentiful, in theory.
With just 19 TDs in 69 career games, though, Goedert has not produced much in the red zone.
The Eagles have also much preferred to run the ball close to the goal line, especially lately. Jalen Hurts has as many TDs rushing (two) as passing since returning from injury.
The Chiefs’ struggles covering WR1s — they ranked 31st in DVOA there — and the beastly nature of AJ Brown make him the prime scoring target when if the Eagles do throw in the red zone here. Don’t expect Goedert to find pay dirt, and this price doesn’t seem to offer quite enough to make it an attractive wager.
SUPER BOWL LVII PLAYER PROPS CATALOG
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