Cowboys Odds: Why I’m Betting Dallas To Win NFC East

Written By Eli Hershkovich on August 31, 2023

Last season, Dallas boasted one of the most complete teams across the NFL, eventually falling to San Francisco in the NFC divisional round. Mike McCarthy’s crew was driven by the defense, surrendering the fifth-fewest EPA per dropback and carry, respectively. Dak Prescott & Co. delivered a top-12 unit in each of those categories, too. What should you expect from Dallas Cowboys odds, pertaining to their projected finish among NFC East odds, this time around? Let’s dive in.

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Cowboys’ offseason appraisal

The phrase addition by subtraction couldn’t apply more to Dallas’ new-look backfield. The Cowboys have rid themselves of now-Patriots running back Ezekiel Elliott, who delivered just 3.8 yards per attempt in 2022. Furthermore, there have been 105 NFL players targeted on 300+ passes since 2016 (reg. and postseason). Here’s where Elliott has ranked in a variety of metrics out of this group:

No. 105 in total EPA
No. 105 in EPA per play
No. 105 in Success Rate
No. 105 in total WPA
No. 104 in WPA per play

Need I say more? Enter Tony Pollard, who manufactured the third-most yards after contact while playing behind Elliott last season. Among tailbacks who saw at least 50 targets, none averaged more yards per catch nor had a better drop rate than Pollard.

Dallas even added on a pair of veterans in Brandin Cooks and Stephon Gilmore. Cooks should provide Prescott with a true No. 2 wide receiver alongside CeeDee Lamb. His catch rate should also undergo positive regression after most recently playing with Davis Mills. Meanwhile, Gilmore was graded as the sixth-best coverage corner by PFF, bolstering an already sturdy secondary.

However, the Cowboys made a head-scratching alteration at offensive coordinator, as Brian Schottenheimer replaces Kellen Moore. For context, the Seahawks operated at one of the league’s slowest situation-neutral tempos under Schottenheimer, which would be a drastic shift from Moore’s rapid-fire pace.

Positive turnover luck looms

I expanded upon this notion in TheLines’ weekly newsletter, but it’s certainly worth reiterating. Although Prescott’s 15 interceptions in 2022 stand out, he was only picked off on 1.7% of his 2,889 attempts in his six other seasons. The latter emphasizes that year-over-year turnover production can be unpredictable.

Moreover, Prescott was a victim of negative variance, regarding his 20 total turnover-worthy plays last season (per PFF). League-wide, turnover-worthy plays resulted in interceptions 77.3% of the time last season. But Prescott finished at 88.9% — more than 25 percentage points higher than his career average prior to last year.

The Cowboys’ top-10 offensive line — despite a lack of depth — is yet another reason to buy into this sentiment, especially with stud right guard Zack Martin ending his holdout. In general, Schottenheimer’s methodical game script may work in Prescott’s favor when it comes to his volume of pass attempts. That said, he still deserves the benefit of the doubt.

Cowboys odds: Schedule analysis

Dallas is projected to take on a league-average slate, and it should benefit from playing three consecutive home games (Commanders, Seahawks and Eagles) in the midst of it. Speaking of Eagles odds, the betting market isn’t baking in the potential for growing pains with a pair of fresh-faced coordinators. Keep in mind that they’re tied for the highest figure among NFL win totals at .

Additionally, Philadelphia managed to face only two top-10 DVOA teams in the 2022 regular season. There’s no questioning Jalen Hurts’ skillset, and his NFL MVP odds reflect that. Nevertheless, the defending NFC champs could take a slight step back.

Similar to the table above, click on any of the following Cowboys odds to bet. You can also price shop NFL Week 1 odds on TheLines.com.

CONCLUSION ON Cowboys odds

Considering I have the Cowboys power rated as the class of the NFC, there’s value in their price point to win the NFC East. It’s set at +195 at DraftKings Sportsbook, as of this writing. That’s equivalent to a 33.9% implied probability. Here are some more NFL betting tips for the upcoming campaign.

NFL Futures Wagers	Odds	Units
Ravens To Win Super Bowl 58	+2500	0.75
Dennis Allen To Win 2023 NFL Coach of the Year	+2500	0.15
Cowboys To Win NFC East	+195	1.00
Bengals Under 11.5 Wins	-120	1.20

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