Creighton takes on San Diego State on Sunday, March 26 at 2:20 p.m. ET on CBS in the South Regional final. The 6-seed Bluejays are spread favorites on the March Madness odds board while the 5-seed Aztecs to win the game on the moneyline. The point total for Creighton Elite 8 odds is set at .
In this article, we’ll dissect everything you need to know before placing a bet on these Elite 8 odds, including team matchups, key metrics, and the best available odds.
Creighton Elite 8 Odds vs. San Diego State
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Creighton vs. San Diego State Matchups
Offense vs. Defense Stats
For a look at the numbers when both the Bluejays or Aztecs palm the ball, plus more betting insights and key player notes, head to our March Madness stats post for this game.
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Historical Significance
Either one of these teams will manufacture its first Final Four appearance in program history with a victory. They’re fairly familiar with one another, squaring off in the Round of 64 last season. The Aztecs wound up blowing a nine-point lead while going scoreless amid the final 3:51 of regulation. The Bluejays snuck by in overtime before falling to Kansas, the eventual national champs.
Creighton point guard Ryan Nembhard (wrist) was already out for the season, and backcourt mate Trey Alexander handled the lead guard role well enough. But Greg McDermott’s team still wound up compiling 20 turnovers, struggling against San Diego State’s ball pressure.
Motivation certainly won’t side with the Aztecs in their rematch. Nevertheless, it’s fair to suggest the notion that Brian Dutcher’s crew sat on that loss all offseason.
Aztecs With The Edge?
For context, this spread opened with Creighton as an 1.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. We’ve seen money come in on the Bluejays () at most nationwide legal sportsbooks.
Let’s start with SDSU’s fourth-rated adjusted defensive efficiency. It’s surrendering the third-lowest 3-point clip (28.1%) across D-I. The other three teams surrounding the Aztecs in that department — Tennessee, Houston, and Alabama — were all bounced in the Sweet 16. On the surface, that may appear concerning, yet those programs aren’t in conferences that showcased an ample of reliable perimeter shooting.
Meanwhile, Dutcher’s squad — notorious for its physical defense around the arc — allows the eighth-lowest open 3-point rate. Alabama’s 3-of-27 (11.1%) shooting performance in the Sweet 16 was no fluke.
Why is that significant for this matchup in particular? McDermott’s attack owns a top-65 attempt rate from distance. But San Diego State boasts a 20-0 straight-up record versus opponents that rank within the top 150 of this category in 2022-23. That’s a product of Dutcher’s game plan to run shooters off the 3-point line, forcing them inside against their athletic bigs.
Not only are the Aztecs hyper-experienced, but their depth could wear down the Bluejays’ shortened rotation. Mind you, McDermott has operated with a six-man rotation throughout the tournament.
At the other end, Creighton scuffles most with defending isolation sets, along with post-up touches. The former will likely be exploited SDSU guard Matt Bradley, who was limited to 19 minutes versus Alabama because of foul trouble. Moreover, its bigs Nathan Mensah and Jaedon Ladee should both have opportunities to exploit the Bluejays’ frontcourt on the block.
If the Aztecs manage to implement their methodical pace throughout, as well as keeping Creighton normally uptempo offense more so in half-court sets, it should find themselves in the Final Four. I already have a semi-futures bet on San Diego State from Friday. I plan on riding that out when it comes to betting this game.
Creighton vs. SDSU Elite 8 Player Props
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