Tail Outcomes: Key Injury Leads To Alternate Spread Bets For Cowboys At Falcons
Another showdown between veteran quarterbacks Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott will kick off at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday afternoon. With Atlanta favored near the key number of a field goal, we must decipher whether that number accurately reflects the fundamentals of these teams and whether it lends itself to either side before placing any bets on the Cowboys at Falcons matchup.
This weekly column aims to filter through much of the noise of stats and data to highlight those stats that matter as a framework for betting that betting apps might not capture well. I’ll try to orient my research toward tail outcomes, which are more difficult for sports betting sites to price. These tail outcomes orient risk on a bettor’s side but provide a greater profit than the standard wager for NFL Week 9 odds.
cowboys at falcons Bets: Alternate Spreads
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Cowboys at falcons: point spread
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Falcons ml
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Falcons -2.5
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Falcons -3
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Falcons -5.5
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Falcons -9.5
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Let’s begin our analysis by looking at the fundamentals of how these teams have performed so far this season.
Above is a chart capturing how well teams have produced using EPA/play. This chart would suggest that these teams are in different tiers, with the Falcons having a far better offense and defense.
Or consider this chart from PFF’s Timo Riske, which similarly ranks these teams in completely different tiers. Despite their performance so far this season, the market is pricing them accounting for home-field advantage as roughly equal, likely building in a prior from the Cowboys teams of the past few years. Or perhaps there is something in the matchup that would suggest the on-field play from the first eight weeks is not the most relevant of samples.
Falcons’ Offense vs. Cowboys’ Defense
An area where Dallas has struggled, in particular, is generating disruption plays on defense, which include plays of perfect coverage and/or pressure that prevent a positive play from ever developing.
Since edge rusher Micah Parsons went down in Week 4 (currently on the wrong side of questionable), the outlook has only gotten worse for Dallas, which generates the least disruption among any team in the NFL. For context, Parsons has missed the last three games with an ankle injury.
This is relevant because it suggests that the Cowboys’ defense will continue to struggle. Moreover, Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins has some drastic splits when playing clean and undisturbed instead of when he faces pressure.
Specifically, Cousins is averaging nearly a point-per-play better with time to throw. Because Cousins doesn’t scramble and leave the pocket, he, more than most quarterbacks, is more sensitive to matchup angles like the above, given his lack of creativity outside of structure. Against this Cowboys front, he should see many undisturbed plays where he can cook.
No matter how you slice it, against a team allowing a league-high 8.5 yards per attempt (YPA) since Parsons went down and 7.7 YPA for the season, second worst in the NFL, there is nothing to suggest the Falcons’ offense won’t look like the solid unit it’s been all year and with an elevated chance to have one of its better games.
Conversely, the Cowboys are dead last in rush EPA allowed this season despite having the fourth-highest box count. If the Falcons want to attack via the run, there is little reason to think they won’t succeed.
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Is Prescott In Trouble (Again)?
Despite Atlanta’s defensive vulnerability, including its struggles against the run and pass rush, Dallas isn’t equipped to take advantage.
Prescott and Co. rank dead last in rush YPA and most other rushing categories. Even with some easy matchups, the ground attack has been unable to capitalize.
When defending the Cowboys, teams have been leaving Jalen Brooks and Jalen Tolbert on islands. However, neither has generated any separation, and neither has manufactured much production with 1.4 and 0.6 YPRR, respectively. Nobody outside of CeeDee Lamb can get open, resulting in Prescott throwing egregious amounts into tight windows.
Prescott’s tight-window rate leaves him on an island relative to the rest of the QBs in the league. Throws into tight windows have a lower base rate of success than non-tight-window throws. Given the tight windows he’s thrown to, it’s also a coincidence that he has as many turnover-worthy plays (and interceptions).
Even if the Falcons’ pass rush can’t get home, Prescott’s extra time won’t necessarily create any more separation. Hence, the Cowboys are unlikely to take advantage of the weak pass rush and the potential matchup advantage.
Add it all up, and we have a spot where the Dallas offense might struggle to score, as it has all season, given the systematic offensive issues, and where the Atlanta offense is primed to take advantage of a Dallas defense that cannot cause disruption.
I’m happy to lay the Falcons to win with a margin on the alternate spreads in this spot. Good luck with your Cowboys vs. Falcons bets!
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