College Football Playoff: Ohio State Vs. Texas Cotton Bowl Semifinal Preview

College football’s final four have been decided on the field rather than in a boardroom. Notre Dame, Penn State, Ohio State, and Texas are the final teams standing with a chance at a national championship. The Ohio State Buckeyes (12-2) take on the Texas Longhorns (13-2) in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl semifinal in a display of high NFL talent. Current Cotton Bowl odds line Ohio State as a Ohio State Buckeyes -13.5 (-118) on FanDuel favorite over Texas, with the total set at 45.5 (+100) on Fliff points.

Head coach Ryan Day looks to thoroughly shake the doubts with the Buckeyes’ first title since 2015, while Steve Sarkisian hopes to join the elite ranks, winning Texas its first title since 2005. An ultra-aggressive approach from Day in Ohio State’s first two CFP games already earned him another season. Sarkisian’s offensive play calling has dazzled in the first two rounds of the CFP but is determinant on an up-and-down quarterback executing those calls. Leading up to game day, the market favors Ohio State.

The Cotton Bowl starts Friday, Jan. 10, at 7:30 p.m. ET from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. You can catch both the semifinals and the national championship game on ESPN.

Cotton Bowl Odds: Ohio State Vs. Texas

Click on the odds anywhere below to place a wager on Texas vs. Ohio State odds at betting sites in your area. And don’t forget to take advantage of the best sportsbook promos before doing so.

Ohio State briefly opened as a -4.5 favorite over Texas before quickly moving to as high as -6.5. Hypothetical odds posted at FanDuel Sportsbook before the quarterfinals began listed the Buckeyes as 1.5-point favorites.

The Buckeyes covered each of their first two CFP games, beating the closing margin by 17.5 points apiece. Texas failed to cover a lofty -13.5 line due to a late push from Arizona State, forcing two overtime periods. However, the Longhorns did cover a closing -13.5 against Clemson by the hook, winning 38-24. Both teams played in far higher-scoring games than anticipated, leading to a higher total for this game than perhaps thought. The teams combine 4-0 to the over in the CFP.

Ohio State Buckeyes Vs. Texas Longhorns Preview

Texas leads the all-time series 2-1, with all three matchups coming between 2005 and 2009. Both road teams notched victories in ’05 and ’06 — coincidentally, each victor made a BCS national championship appearance — and the Longhorns broke the series tie with a 24-21 win in the ’09 Fiesta Bowl. Texas opens the 2025 season in Columbus with the first of a home-and-home series with Ohio State.

The Longhorns last played in the Cotton Bowl in 2003, where they upended LSU. The Buckeyes played in this game last season and suffered a 14-3 loss to Missouri with a severely depleted roster. Before that loss, Ohio State touted a perfect 3-0 record at AT&T Stadium, including a national championship victory over Oregon in 2015. Texas’ last game at Jerry World was also its last Big 12 game, beating Oklahoma State to win the 2023 Big 12 championship.

An Unstoppable Force Meets An Immovable Object

Through two playoff games, Ohio State’s offense came alive. Two 20-point wins, 973 yards, and 83 points later, the hottest offense in the country meets perhaps the stoutest defense in Texas. The Longhorns’ dominant defensive front, matching up with a retooled and beat-up Buckeyes offensive line, headlines most features about this game. But the reshuffled line held up exceptionally well in these CFP games, even against first-round NFL talent like Tennessee EDGE James Pearce and Oregon defensive lineman Derrick Harmon.

Despite going against a cast of NFL-level players, Ohio State might be able to find success on the ground. Against Tennessee, backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins averaged 4.2 yards after contact and, against Oregon, 5.4. Texas’ defense sits in the bottom 30% in the FBS in Adjusted Line Yards. Despite fielding All-American LB Anthony Hill Jr., the Buckeyes should be able to use their speed to attack the edge on the ground. Having two All-Conference level backs helps, too.

The disadvantage for Ohio State may come in pass protection. In two CFP games and the SEC Championship, Texas generated 48 pressures on opposing QBs and nine sacks. But thanks to elite play from converted guard Donovan Jackson at left tackle, QB Will Howard was sacked just once through two CFP games. Under duress, Howard has shown a propensity to break down (as most college quarterbacks do). He committed costly turnovers against Penn State and Michigan when the pass rush bore down on him. However, he’s played with immense poise and confidence in the CFP.

Howard also pieced together a heroic game in AT&T Stadium while at Kansas State, winning the 2022 Big 12 championship.

Jekyll & Hyde

When things click for Texas, they click. The Longhorns scored two touchdowns in just three snaps to open up an early lead over Arizona State in the Peach Bowl. Weapons like Matthew Golden and Silas Bolden possess lethal speed and route running, capable of hitting a home run on any given play. And when QB Quinn Ewers (an Ohio State transfer) plays confidently, he elevates receivers around him.

But Ewers doesn’t always play with confidence. He’s a chronic under-thrower deep and misses open receivers semi-regularly. While Texas opened up that quick 14-3 lead in three snaps with the ball, it wouldn’t find the end zone again until the fourth quarter. Compared to Ohio State, Texas no longer has a speed advantage. Multiple times this year, we’ve seen the Longhorns stretch without offensive competence (through the air or on the ground).

And that’s a significant issue against this Ohio State team, one that’s shown the ability to flash-fry elite opponents. Backs Tre Wisner and Jaydon Blue can get things going until defenses force Ewers to make a play and load the box. During the season, Ohio State has good numbers against the run but not elite, which has improved tenfold in the playoff. Fourteen of Oregon’s 20 rush attempts in the Rose Bowl (70%) and nine of Tennessee’s 15 non-QB rush attempts (60%) went for two or fewer yards.

Teams still post a positive EPA in the run game against Ohio State because of how stout the pass defense has been. Perhaps the biggest team improvement this postseason — aside from aggressiveness in play calling — has been cornerback play against deep throws. Denzel Burke and the rest of the Buckeye secondary were torched in the first meeting with Oregon. QB Dillon Gabriel was held to 7.3 yards per completion in the rematch.

The Deciding Factor

Of course, the biggest weapon for the Buckeyes comes out wide. Freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith hauled in 290 yards and four touchdowns in the CFP, including 161 yards and two scores in the first half of the Rose Bowl alone. Texas fields All-American corner Jahdae Barron, who is perhaps the best pure defensive back in the nation. However, Smith has a distinct height advantage, standing 6-foot-4 (versus Barron at 5-foot-11). Even heavily game-planning against Smith leaves less help for other All-Conference selections in Emeka Egbuka and tight end Gee Scott.

Texas allowed just 28 passes of 20+ yards on the season (22nd), but game-breaking talent like Smith and Egbuka set aside previous results.

On the flip side, the pass rush from Jack Sawyer, J.T. Tuimoloau, and even interior lineman Tyliek Williams has been a legitimate weapon for Ohio State in the postseason.

Ewers took five sacks on just 14 pressures against Clemson and Arizona State combined. In the SEC Championship, Georgia got home six times on 17 pressures.

In two CFP games, Ohio State’s pass rush generated a ridiculous 32 pressures and notched 12 sacks. Despite rostering a top-10 NFL Draft prospect in Kelvin Banks at tackle, the Buckeyes should be able to get pressure on Ewers.

Cotton Bowl Pick For Texas-Ohio State Odds

Every team remaining in the playoff field has a championship defense. With how good all four units have been, especially this postseason, the stop units don’t move the needle for me. I expect offenses to decide the winners this week.

Despite facing top-10 NFL prospects in front sevens and hyper-efficient offenses, Howard and Co. have bulldozed their CFP opponents like a mid-October tilt with Purdue. Day coaches his best games with his back against the wall and against foes not wearing Maize and Blue. The play-calling through two CFP games borders on reckless abandon. No college defense can stop that kind of play.

If Texas can’t establish a reliable run game against a top-flight run defense playing at its absolute peak right now, Texas’ offense likely stalls out early. And when offenses stall out early against Ohio State in the CFP, we see the result: a flash fry.

Ohio State matches Texas’ most significant advantages across the board:

• Team speed
• Size and strength in the trenches
• One-on-one advantages out wide

It comes down to the more reliable quarterback and consistent offense when comparing unit-to-unit. Ohio State gets that nod.

Cotton Bowl Pick: Ohio State -5.5

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