Corbin Burnes Next-Team MLB Odds: Mets & Red Sox Slightly Favored

Beyond Juan Soto, the second-best MLB free agent hails from the mound. At 30 years old, right-hander Corbin Burnes has many insiders projecting a deal of at least $200 million this offseason. Burnes earned an All-Star bid in each of the last four seasons, winning the National League Cy Young award in 2021. Let’s assess the odds for Corbin Burnes’ next team.

Corbin Burnes Next-Team Odds

DraftKings Sportsbook is offering Corbin Burnes next-team odds in certain states. Whenever Burnes opts to sign, his next team’s World Series odds could shorten substantially.

Will Mets Spend Big?

FanGraphs states Burnes has produced a 21.7 fWAR during the last five years. Only Phillies ace Zack Wheeler (24.7) has been a more valuable starter over this stretch.

Granted, his strikeout rate has decreased significantly since his award-winning run. In 2024, Burnes generated a 17% strikeout-to-walk ratio, his lowest since his rookie season. Even so, Burnes is one of the most consistent starters in baseball.

The New York Mets, which fell short against the eventual World Series champion Dodgers in the NLCS, are deservedly favored to acquire Burnes. MLB insider Jim Bowden recently reported that while David Stearns, the organization’s president of baseball operations, would like to reel in both Soto and Burnes, the latter free agent is the team’s top priority.

New York’s starting staff includes Kodai Senga (expected to be fully healthy in 2025) and lefty David Peterson. There is some depth, including Paul Blackburn (arbitration-eligible), Jose Butto, and Tylor Megill. The club has handed out one-year qualifying offers to free agents Sean Manaea and Luis Severino, but they will presumably reject those offers and hit the open market.

Red Sox: A Longshot Pick

Not in the way you think.

Boston is preparing for a crucial offseason after missing the playoffs for a third straight year. Craig Breslow, the franchise’s chief baseball officer, is set on signing a true ace and some bullpen pieces. Given the Red Sox’s substantial payroll flexibility, they boast the second-shortest odds for Corbin Burnes.

Under pitching coach Andrew Bailey, their staff exceeded expectations in 2024. The starting rotation ranked seventh in the majors with a 3.81 ERA. This mark should improve considerably if Burnes inks with Beantown, bolstered by a promising group of young arms in Tanner Houk, Bryan Bello, and Kutter Crawford.

If you’re searching for potential dark-horse candidates to win the Fall Classic, Boston is worth monitoring at +4000 instead of its AL East-rival Orioles, the team Burnes pitched for last season. Baltimore is right behind New York and Boston in this market.

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