The WGC Dell Match Play may have just gotten under way, but the content continues, with a new favorite PGA TOUR event of mine on tap this week, the 2023 Corales Puntacana Championship. I had the pleasure of playing this course several months ago, and I’m hoping to impart all wisdom from my experience on the grounds in this article to give you a more informed overview of this event, often overlooked opposite of the WGC Dell Match Play. Ahead, we’ll go through a quick tournament preview, a recap of my experience playing the course, and get into my outright bets from Corales Puntacana odds.
Corales Puntacana Odds
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INTRODUCTION TO CORALES GOLF CLUB
Corales Golf Course is one of the longer Par 72 courses on the PGA TOUR schedule, standing at 7,670 yards. The course gets its length primarily from its Par 3s and Par 5s. All four Par-3s play over 200 yards, with two holes playing over 230 yards. It also features two Par-5s over 620 yards long. Aside from these six holes however, the remaining ten Par-4s and two other Par-5s are average in length and manageable for the full field, regardless of distance. And given the extreme length of these Par-3s and 5s, it is a clever way to mitigate advantage from pure bombers; the full field will be playing to reach each of the 600+ yard Par-5s in three, which explains how players with less distance off the tee have gone on to win here in its short history.
The course sits right on the coast of Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic, and is highly exposed to coastal winds. This is similar to what we see on other comp course events like the RSM Classic, Sony Open, Bermuda Championship, and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, so I’ll be looking closely at those courses as comps, despite the significant difference in distance. The Plantation Course at Kapalua is another solid comp course, given the length, wide open fairways, table-top greens, and above-average driving distance, however you’ll be hard pressed to find many players in this opposite field who have qualified for the Sentry Tournament of Champions in recent years.
As a tropical resort course, Corales Golf Course features Paspalum grass throughout. The Mayakoba Classic, Puerto Rico Open, ZOZO Championship (at Accordia Golf Narashino), and PGA Championship (at Kiawah Island) are recent references of other events played on Paspalum greens. The greens would be unplayable if rolling firm or fast in this climate, as balls would not be able to stand still against these strong winds otherwise. While it’s difficult to run a model against Paspalum greens, SG: P on Slow Greens should serve as a solid proxy.
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What I Learned Playing Corales Golf Club
I had the pleasure of playing 18 holes on this course just three months ago while on vacation in Punta Cana. I love the opportunity to play where the pros play, and it will without a doubt make watching this event a lot more compelling than any opposite field event should otherwise be. But I have to say off the bat, the greens fees are over the top here, and there are many better options across the Dominican Republic that are more affordable if you’re willing to give up on the novelty of playing a PGA TOUR course.
The wind is inescapable here. You are right on the edge of the island for most of this course’s routing with sparse trees to block Punta Cana’s naturally windy climate. So unlike most weeks on the PGAT TOUR where wind can be unpredictable, it’s a near guarantee that skilled ball strikers with experience in windy conditions will have an advantage here.
Corales is by and large a second shot course. The fairways are generous, the rough is light, and you can hit driver on essentially every Par-4 and Par-5. The par-3s are very long, and three of the four par-5s cannot be reached without a helping wind. You really need to capitalize on the par-4s to score here, and with wind constantly blowing approach shots off course, a crafty short game is a must as well.
In short, the players best equipped to score at Corales should excel in Comp Windy Conditions and be elite in SG: APP and SG: ARG.
CORALES GOLF CLUB COURSE SPECS
- Yards: 7,670
- Par: 72 (4x 3s / 10x 4s / 4x 5s)
- Greens: Paspalum (Slow)
- Average Green Size: 6,000 Sq. Ft. (Above-Average)
- Fairway Width: Very Wide (Exact yardage unconfirmed)
- Rough: 2″ Paspalum (Light)
- Architect: Tom Fazio
- Historic Cut Line: Even
- Comp Courses: Plantation Course at Kapalua, Coco Beach, Port Royal GC, Pebble Beach
- Hole-by-hole Breakdown:
CORALES PUNTACANA CHAMPIONSHIP PAST WINNERS & ODDS
Over its first 5 years hosting, the favorites have yet to convert a win at this event. Graeme McDowell’s win in 2019 at 30-1 odds was the shortest of any winner so far. With the course sitting heavily exposed on the coast of Punta Cana, this event is always susceptible to high winds, which can create dramatic wave splits for morning and afternoon tee times. With limited upside from longshots in weaker fields, bettors have been best suited to look in the mid-range of the odds board when betting on the Corales Puntacana Championship.
The below table tracks consensus pre-tournament outright odds for all previous winners of the Corales Puntacana Championship.
| Year | Winner | Pre-Tournament Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Chad Ramey | +5000 |
| 2021 | Joel Dahmen | +5500 |
| 2020 | Hudson Swafford | +10000 |
| 2019 | Graeme McDowell | +3000 |
| 2018 | Brice Garnett | +5000 |
CORALES PUNTACANA CHAMPIONSHIP KEY STATES & MODEL FAVORITES
- SG: APP
- SG: ARG / Scrambling
- Par-3: 200+
- Par-5: 550+
- SG: Putting (L36, Slow Greens)
- SG: TOT (Windy Conditions)
- Course & Comp Course History
Model Favorites
Cameron Percy is the No. 1 man in the model when plugging these key stats in, which is actually becoming a bit of a regular thing in these opposite field, resort course set ups. Percy flies a bit under the radar this week with two top-16 finishes over his last three starts between the Valspar Championship and Honda Classic. Adding a pair of top-10 finishes at this event over the last two years, he’s poised to make another run in Punta Cana.
After Percy, my model’s top 10 is rounded out by Thomas Detry, Wyndham Clark, Aaron Baddeley, Scott Piercy, Patrick Rodgers, Ben Martin, Matt Wallace, Ryan Moore, and Kevin Tway.
MY BETTING CARD: HOW I BUILT MY CORALES CHAMPIONSHIP BETS
At last year’s Corales Puntacana Championship, I built out a modified betting card without much of a sweat to show for it. A year later, I’ve picked up some much needed inside knowledge on the course, and have the newfound confidence to hoist a full card. Contrary to the 7,600+ yardage, I’ve prioritized elite iron players with reliable short games and a proven track record on this course and other coastal, windy set ups.
Here is a quick breakdown of the bets I landed on for the 2023 Corales Championship. Best of luck with your bets this week!
CORALES CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)
Ben Martin
My Bet: +3200
Best Odds Still Available:
I never thought I’d see myself start my card with Ben Martin, but here we are! Martin surprisingly leads the field in SG: TOT over the last 36 rounds, highlight by a pair of top-15 finishes at comp windy courses in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Honda Classic. Martin has finished top-10 at this event in each of his last two trips, including a runner up finish last year. He’s trending in better form now than ever before, so this may be the his best opportunity to break his 9-year winless drought since the 2014 Shriners Open.
Matt Wallace
My Bet: +3500
Best Odds Still Available:
Wallace is the ideal profile of player to attack Corales Golf Club, ranking top-10 in both SG: APP and SG: ARG. He enters in some resurgent form this 2023 season, coming off of a T7 at the Valspar Championship last week. A four-time winner on the DP World Tour, the Englishman has proven to be comfortable in windy conditions, and picking up his first career PGA TOUR win would go a long way for his 2023 Ryder Cup case.
Akshay Bhatia
My Bet: +3500
Best Odds Still Available:
For whatever reason, Akshay has looked most dangerous on the courses he is most likely to be blown away by the wind in. He picked up his first career Korn Ferry Tour win in the Bahamas last year, and has looked impressive with a T17 at the Bermuda Championship and Runner Up finish at the Puerto Rico Open over his last five starts.
Cameron Percy
My Bet: +5500
Best Odds Still Available:
I did not run a very complex model for this opposite field event, but for the stats I found most important, it’s Percy who emerged as the man to beat based on the numbers. Percy ranks top-15 in SG: ARG, Scrambling, Par-4 Scoring, Bogey Avoidance, and Comp, Coastal Course History. He’s finished top-10 in each of his last two appearances here and top-16 in two of his previous three starts leading in.
Aaron Baddeley
My Bet: +8500
Best Odds Still Available:
Another Aussie for the card, Baddeley has done his best work in 2023 when winds are up, which is a guarantee on the coastline of Punta Cana. He’s already posted two top-10 finishes on windy, coastal tracks between the Bermuda Championship and Sony Open, with additional top-40 finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and RSM Classic this season.
Hank Lebioda
My Bet: +9500
Best Odds Still Available:
Ranking top-15 in the field in SG: APP leading into this week, Lebioda has held his own on windy setups, with top-20 finishes at the Puerto Rico Open and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am over his last four starts. With finishes of T36 and T21 over his last three trips to Corales, he’s a suitable fit for this course.
D.A. Points
My Bet: +150000
Best Odds Still Available:
When I played Corales Golf Club last December, I had the pleasure of walking with a local caddie who was on D.A. Points’ bag at the 2022 Corales Championship. I promised him I would bet his boy D.A. when March came around, so here we are!
CORALES CHAMPIONSHIP BETS
Best of luck with your Corales Puntacana Championship bets! See you next week for the Valero Texas Open Tournament Preview.
