Corales Puntacana Championship Event Overview and Betting Card

Written By John Haslbauer on March 23, 2022
Corales odds golf punta cana

Two PGA TOUR events, two PGA TOUR betting cards. Understanding how volatile betting the WGC Dell Match Play can be, I couldn’t sit out betting a traditional Stroke Play event in the same week. And while I felt a little gross putting together a small Puerto Rico Open card opposite the Arnold Palmer Invitational, this event actually has plenty of household names to keep it interesting.

Corales odds: Favorites

Compare Corales odds below and click to bet now. For more Corales odds, scroll to the bottom of this article.

Corales Odds

Joel Dahmen
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+1600
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+2000
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+1800
Jhonattan Vegas
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+2000
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+1600
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+1800
Nick Taylor
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+2500
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+4000
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+4000
Sahith Theegala
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+2500
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+2200
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+2000
Alex Smalley
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+2500
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+3300
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+3500
Mark Hubbard
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+2800
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+2800
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+3000
Greyson Sigg
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+3000
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+4000
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+4000
Matthias Schwab
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+3000
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+3300
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+3500
Emiliano Grillo
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+3500
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+4000
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+4000
Nate Lashley
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+3500
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+3000
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+2800

CORALES CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING OVERVIEW

At one point earlier this week, I was ambitious enough to think I could write a Tournament Preview for this tournament. It then dawned on me that (1) I would need to write four articles in two days to accomplish that with the condensed WGC Match Play Wednesday start, and (2) the Corales Championship really isn’t important enough to warrant its own preview, research, and modeling. It’s a fine tournament on a beautiful piece of property, it just lacks the historical relevance (added to the PGA TOUR schedule in 2018) and strokes gained data needed to really sink in and research. So in lieu of a tournament preview, I will summarize as best I can here.

Corales Golf Course is one of the longer Par 72 courses on the PGA TOUR schedule, standing at 7,666 yards. The course gets its length primarily from its Par 3s and Par 5s. All four Par-3s play over 200 yards, with two holes playing over 230 yards. It also features two Par-5s over 620 yards long. Aside from these six holes however, the remaining ten Par-4s and two other Par-5s are average in length and manageable for the full field, regardless of distance. And given the extreme length of these Par-3s and 5s, it is a clever way to mitigate advantage from pure bombers; the full field will be playing to reach each of the 600+ yard Par-5s in three, which explains how players with less distance off the tee have gone on to win here in its short history.

In four years, the list of Corales Championship winners includes Joel Dahmen, Hudson Swafford, Graeme McDowell, and Brice Garnett. If there is a through line between those players, it’s that they are veterans with long-term strength on Approach and proven results on windy, coastal courses. It’s definitely worth repeating that despite the gaudy 7,666 yardage of this course, Driving Distance has not been the most correlated with success.

The course sits right on the coast of Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic, and is highly exposed to coastal winds. This is similar to what we see on other comp course events like the Sony Open, Bermuda Championship, and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, so I’ll be looking closely at those courses as comps, despite the significant difference in distance. The Plantation Course at Kapalua is another solid comp course, given the length, wide open fairways, and above-average driving distance, however you’ll be hard pressed to find many players in this opposite field who have qualified for the Sentry Tournament of Champions in recent years.

As a tropical resort course, Corales Golf Course features Paspalum grass throughout. The Mayakoba Classic, Puerto Rico Open, ZOZO Championship (at Accordia Golf Narashino), and PGA Championship (at Kiawah Island) are recent references of other events played on Paspalum greens. Generally speaking, Paspalum is a grainless surface that tends to yield a higher percentage of made putts from strong and weak putters alike.

Corales Golf Course also played host to Web.com events in 2016 and 2017. Dominic Bozzelli and Nate Lashley won in 2016 and 2017 and are in the field this week.  

MY BETTING CARD: HOW I BUILT MY CORALES CHAMPIONSHIP BETS

Trying my best to keep some structure in this outlier of a week, I’m going with the same exposure as the WGC Dell Match Play (2U in Outrights to pay out 24U each). I don’t intend to watch much of the Corales Championship at all this week, unless I have a Sunday sweat, so I don’t feel compelled to throw in any entertainment bets like FRL. I also didn’t research this event nearly extensively enough to feel safe around any conviction props. With that said, my exposure for the week will simply be 4U in for Outrights between the Match Play and Corales, each to pay out 24U.

Here is a quick breakdown of the bets I landed on for the 2022 Corales Championship. Best of luck with your bets this week!

CORALES CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: OUTRIGHTS (2 UNITS)

Adam Svensson

My Bet: +3500

Best Odds Still Available:

Adam Svensson has been showing us what his ceiling looks like early on in 2022 with two top-10 finishes to start the year – at the Sony Open and Honda Classic. His putter has prevented him from showcasing more steady results, but Paspalum greens tend to be a great equalizer for strong and poor putters alike. From an approach standpoint, Svensson is #1 SG: APP over the last three months by a wide margin, which is always an advantage when golf betting.

This will be his PGA TOUR debut at the Corales Championship, but he’s no stranger to these grounds, finishing T6 here in 2017 when the Web.com Tour came to Punta Cana. 

Svensson has won at every level of his young career, and following up his two 2021 KFT wins, this seems to be an ideal spot for Svensson to pick up his first career PGA TOUR victory.

Patrick Rodgers

My Bet: +4500

Best Odds Still Available:

Without running a model this week, I’m relying a little more heavily on the old fashioned eye test. When I see a long course and a weak field, I naturally gravitate towards Patrick Rodgers, especially when I see 45-1 odds. 

The recent form has been a bit lackluster, but I can overlook that given the comparatively stronger fields he’s been going up against. It’s been awhile, but Rodgers does still have three top-6 finishes over his last 15 starts, which came at the Barbasol Championship, Fortinet Championship, and Bermuda Championship. Given the coastal set up and exposure to high winds, I think there’s a lot we can glean from Port Royal as a comp course – even if the difference in yardage is staggering – so I’m encouraged by the high finish at the Bermuda Championship.

In three career appearances, Rodgers has never missed the cut at this event, highlighted by a T11 here in 2020.

Martin Kaymer

My Bet: +6600

Best Odds Still Available:

Kaymer is in the field as an alternate and making his Corales Championship debut this week. Given how new this event is on TOUR, I’m not concerned about a player coming in with no experience, and actually think the breadth of European Tour courses he’s seen over the course of his career should set him up well for the coastal elements.

We haven’t seen much of Kaymer to kick off the 2022 season, but he looked to be in solid form last week at the Valspar Championship, where he finished T44. Kaymer is an extremely steady iron player, having gained strokes on approach in seven of his last eight measured events across the PGA and DP World Tour. Just judging by a list of past winners that includes Joel Dahmen, Hudson Swafford, and Graeme McDowell, it’s clear that solid iron play is an especially necessary skill to have at Corales.

Tyler Duncan

My Bet: +9000

Best Odds Still Available:

We have seen Tyler Duncan win on a coastal resort PGA TOUR course when he took down the 2019 RSM Classic. In this opposite field event, there are few others who can say they’ve won recently on a comp PGA TOUR course, so the 90-1 odds already seem like instant value.

Duncan has also gotten off to one of the hottest starts of his career in 2022, gaining strokes on the field in eight of his first 11 starts of the season. He also rides in relatively hot with a T35 at the Puerto Rico Open and T25 at the Valspar Championship.

I would typically think of playing Duncan on a shorter, positional course that rewards his strength of driving accuracy, but Duncan has still been able to find success at Corales, highlighted by a T3 finish here in 2017 while on the Web.com Tour.

Ryan Armour

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

One last feel bet for the card, Ryan Armour is the type of player who will just spontaneously pop for a T5 finish without warning or discernible reason from a profile standpoint. That makes him a frustrating player to bet most weeks, but in an opposite field event where we’re really just throwing a handful of darts, I like that upside.

Since the COVID restart, Armour has tallied six T8-or-better finishes. He also has two top-30 finishes within his last four starts at the Sony Open and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which profile well as comp coastal courses, despite the difference in length.

Armour has a similar profile to Joel Dahmen in that both hit a high percentage of fairways, lean on their irons as their strengths, and can intermittently pop for a top-10 if the putter gets hot. At 100-1 odds, I’ll take my chances on Armour to follow in Dahmen’s footsteps. 

CORALES CHAMPIONSHIP BETS

More Corales odds: Outright winner

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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