2024 Stanley Cup Final: Conn Smythe Odds For NHL Playoffs MVP

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Written By Evan Scrimshaw | Last Updated
2024 Conn Smythe Odds
Credit: Associated Press

It’s the only true full playoff MVP award in North American sports, as the other sports crown championship game or series MVP. The battle for the 2024 Conn Smythe Trophy has been fierce these NHL playoffs. With Edmonton and Florida locked into a tight Final, there’s an open board for Conn Smythe odds. The Panthers have multiple players with paths to winning it if they hoist the Cup. On the other side, there’s betting favorite Connor McDavid at , despite the superstar’s Oilers being underdogs to win the Stanely Cup Final.

With so much to consider and so many options, Conn Smythe odds are sure to excite. Make sure to check out the best sports betting sites before making a bet. Getting the best odds will be key, as awards prices can vary greatly across sportsbooks.

2024 Conn Smythe Odds

Conn Smythe Odds Analysis

Connor McDavid

Connor McDavid is the favorite to win this award. This wouldn’t be that notable if not for the fact that McDavid’s Oilers are underdogs to win this series. At his current price, McDavid has a roughly 32% implied chance of winning the Conn Smythe, while his team has a ~47% chance of winning the Cup.

It’s worth noting that no player on a losing team has won the Conn Smythe in the salary cap era. Given that, these odds suggest McDavid has about a 67% chance of winning the Conn Smythe conditional on Edmonton winning the Cup.

McDavid being the most likely person to win the Conn Smythe despite being a series underdog makes sense. The leading Panthers only are projected to win the Conn Smythe ~18% of the time, or ~32% of the times Florida wins it. McDavid eats up such a bigger share of the Edmonton winning scenarios to make up for the small gap in series win equity.

McDavid’s almost boring to talk about:

  • He leads the playoffs in points.
  • He scored an absolutely filthy goal in Game 6 against Dallas.
  • He’s the best player I’ve ever watched.

As much as Draisaitl’s playoff performances try to make the case otherwise, McDavid is so obviously the best player in the league. If the Oilers win the Cup, it’s because of McJesus. 

Florida Panthers Favorites

Panthers goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky () is next on the odds board, which could make sense or make zero sense, depending how the series plays out. Will it be high-scoring or a grind? Only four goalies have won the Conn Smythe in the Cap era. Bobrovsky currently holds a .908 Save%, which is not particularly great if he wants to win this award.

Aleksander Barkov () is tied for second in points and third in goals for the Panthers these playoffs. Yes, Barkov has been solid defensively, but there’s no active case to be made for him above his offensive teammates at this point.

Matthew Tkachuk () has the team lead in points. His arrival in Florida transformed them from a second-round out to a Cup contender, and he’s the biggest star on the team. If the Oilers focus their best defensive pair on Barkov’s line, which would be the best move, Tkachuk will be able to feast on the Oilers’ weaker depth defense.

But most of all, the Conn Smythe is a media voted on award, and Tkachuk has the best narrative. His arrival changed the trajectory of the franchise. If they win the Cup and he has a case, it should be his award.

Contenders

This section of the odds board should better be known as the “if the Oilers win and it’s not McDavid” section. If we’re being honest, though, isn’t that hard to imagine? A media-voted-on award ending in somebody other than McDavid if the Oilers win the Cup?

Anyway, Leon Draisaitl () and Evan Bouchard () have been incredible. Bouchard is leading the playoffs in points for a defenseman. He even has more points, and points per game, than the leading Panther forward. He’s been a revelation. But he’s not winning the Conn Smythe. 

Draisaitl has an actual case, which is that the Panthers are likely going to load up on the Nugent-Hopkins/McDavid/Hyman line. They’re likely to see Florida’s best defensive pair and lots of Barkov in key defensive situations. This series, in many ways, comes down to whether Draisaitl can be the best player in the series.

If the Oilers win, it’s likely in large part because Draisaitl elevates himself even further. And if that happens, perhaps he can win.

Longshots

Carter Verhaeghe () is leading the Panthers in goals and is tied for second in points. He’s not the biggest name, but if he can stretch his lead in goals over Tkachuk and Barkov, he might force himself into this conversation. Gustav Forsling () has been impressive as a lockdown defenseman. That said, only three defensemen have won the Conn Smythe in the Cap era. Sam Reinhart () has been good but by no means incredible this postseason and hasn’t separated from the pack.

Zach Hyman () deserves a mention, given he is the playoff leader in goals. A four-goal gap should be worth something, but seven of those goals came in the first round. More to the point, Hyman is viewed as a product of McDavid, and the writers voting on this aren’t going to give a product of McDavid the Conn Smythe over McDavid.

Conclusions

Bet Matt Tkachuk. He’s leading the Panthers in points, he’s likely going to see limited minutes against Bouchard-Ekholm, and he has narratives on his side. The Panthers are the favorites in the series for a reason. If they win the Cup, Tkachuk wins the Conn Smythe more than the ~27% of the time his price implies.

McDavid should be favored as the lack of clarity with Panthers candidates creates longer prices on Flordia players, but Tkachuk is the best bet to win it.

Best of luck betting 2024 Conn Smythe odds!

Conn smythe Odds Comparison Table

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