2024 Conn Smythe Odds: NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs MVP Futures

One of the most exciting differences between NHL betting and its peers is the postseason MVP. Unlike the NBA or NFL, the postseason MVP is for the playoffs in totality, not just the final series or final game. That makes Conn Smythe odds very interesting to handicap, because if you get the right combination of teams going deep, there’s a lot of value on the board.

Given the distributed nature of hockey talent and the fact that the value of high-end talent isn’t as significant in hockey, Conn Smythe winners can come from anywhere on an odds board. Before we explore, be sure to check out the best sports betting sites to get the best available Conn Smythe odds.

2024 Conn Smythe Odds: The Favorites

My Strategy For Conn Smythe Odds

The best way to tackle Conn Smythe odds is to look at the teams that are likely to make the Stanley Cup Final. This year, the likely four teams are Carolina, Florida, Edmonton, and Colorado. The Hurricanes face the toughest second-round matchup in the Rangers, while the Avalance faces a stiff challenge from Dallas. The Panthers and Oilers have relatively easy matchups, and should more easily advance.

Given Florida and Edmonton’s status as the likeliest teams to make the conference finals (which is also reflected in Stanley Cup odds) and that they both beat well-respected opponents in five games, their rosters are going to have a lot of equity tied up in them. And that’s a good place to look at the board.

Favorites

The way this odds board is divided is interesting. The first three names on the board are all the best players on a likely conference finalist. The nine-point playoff series for both Matt Tkachuk and Nathan MacKinnon have brought them near the top.

That said, 12 points for the best player in the league installs Connor McDavid as the favorite. McDavid’s an outright terrible bet, however. The Oilers are +450 to win the Cup, and he’s +550 to win the Conn Smythe. The existence of Leon Draisaitl, who has been arguably better than McDavid in Round 1, makes that price insanely short. If you like Edmonton to win it all, just bet the team’s futures.

Admittedly, MacKinnon’s a fade, not because he’s untalented but because Colorado’s goaltending woes could easily send them home in Round 2. Even if it doesn’t, I see Edmonton beating them in the West Finals.

Tkachuk is the media darling in Florida, but Carter Verhaeghe has two more goals and the same amount of points through Round 1. 

Goalies

Only four goalies have won the Conn Smythe in the salary cap era and only one has won it since the 2012-13 lockout.

The next tier of the odds board is the goalie tier. As fun as a Sergei Bobrovsky Conn Smythe run would be, Florida has too many elite offensive players for it to go to a goalie. Jeremy Swayman is on a path to getting beaten by Bobrovsky and the Panthers in Round 2, even as he’s been spectacular in six games against the Leafs.

Shesterkin and Andersen play each other in Round 2, so at least one of them is losing.

The only one that could even be worth a bet is Andersen, since the Hurricanes don’t have a dominant offensive talent.

Longshots

Leon Draisaitl being this deep on the odds board is offensive. Five goals in five games plus on the ice for 18-of-22 Edmonton goals in the first round, and he has to create offense on his own line while McDavid gets two elite offensive wingers. Draisaitl is not as good as McDavid, but in the playoffs he narrows the gap to Connor considerably. Throw in that he is more of a Goalscorer than McDavid and there’s a very plausible universe where if Edmonton wins, Draisaitl leads the team in goals and wins. It’s at least enough of a chance that I’m betting Leon.

Verhaeghe is probably a stay-away now that he’s down in the 20s. The Conn Smythe is a media award, and Tkachuk is the bigger personality in Florida. If the stat lines are similar, it’s likely a rough tie goes to Tkachuk, but five goals and nine points in Round 1 is a great start.

Cale Makar is a similar case to Draisaitl in that he’s really good and underpriced. I’m just fundamentally lower on Colorado’s ability to make it to and win the Cup than Edmonton’s. That said, nine points in five games as a defenseman is very impressive.

The only other dart worth considering is Jake Oettinger. Yes, goalies don’t often win the award. Yes, Dallas isn’t even guaranteed to make it out of the second round. It’s also true that its path to the Final would likely be Colorado and then Edmonton. But if Dallas makes a run, it’ll be because Oettinger shuts down the two most prolific offenses in the West.

If he manages it, it’s a good ticket. For a team that’s 6-1 to win the Cup, 30-1 on Oettinger is worth a bet. 

Conn Smythe Odds Comparison Table