Conference USA Betting Guide: Liberty Big Favorite Over WKU In College Football Odds

According to preseason odds, Conference USA is a one-team league. Kaidon Salter and the Liberty Flames ran the table last season, clinching a 13-0 regular season and a seat in the Fiesta Bowl – the first New Year’s Six bowl berth for the league in the College Football Playoff era. With Salter back, Liberty is expected to run CUSA again. Another 13-0 season would almost assuredly land the Flames in the expanded CFP field. But are the Flames really a foregone conclusion?

Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State also have decent positions in CUSA. Everyone else would be a true shock to oddsmakers. The league is at its arguable weakest ever, falling even behind the MAC in terms of depth and average strength. But so long as Liberty holds its position as a dominant Group of Five teams, CUSA has a place in the national college football conversation.

CONFERENCE USA Odds: To Win The Conference

Compare Conference USA odds from the best sports betting sites below. Click anywhere to place a bet.

It’s not a surprise to see Liberty as the odds-on favorite to win Conference USA. The Flames return one of the nation’s best QBs in Kaidon Salter and a host of other threats. Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State are the only other teams given a realistic shot at contending for the league.

Sam Houston State, Middle Tennessee State, and Louisiana Tech provide a “buffer,” of sorts, despite having longshot odds of their own. In this case, the middle class contains the longshots while the true longshots like UTEP, New Mexico State, and FIU are priced 70-1 or longer.

• Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord — with over 4,800 community members and our staff sharing bets daily.

CONFERENCE USA Odds: Projected Wins, Win Totals

Projected wins below are derived from aggregate power ratings, including SP+, FPI, and more. Win totals are pulled from FanDuel Sportsbook as of Aug. 1.

Team	Proj. Wins	Win Total	Price
Liberty Flames	9.3	10.5	-128/+104
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	7.4	7.5	-110/-110
Jacksonville State Gamecocks	6.9	7.5	-134/+110
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	5.7	4.5	-138/+112
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	5.3	4.5	-164/+134
Sam Houston State Bearkats	4.5	4.5	-134/+110
New Mexico State Aggies	4.3	4.5	+126/-154
UTEP Miners	4.0	4.5	+118/-144
FIU Panthers	3.9	4.5	+138/-170
Kennesaw State Owls	2.4	2.5	-105/-115

CUSA Power Rankings

Table Key (all ranks except power rankings are national):

• Rank (Power ranking, conference)
• Proj. Wins (Projected total wins)
• Return (Returning production, total)
• PPD (Points per drive scored)
• PPDA (Points per drive allowed)
• L5 (Last five years recruiting average, national)

CONFERENCE USA Odds: The Favorite

While the odds don’t necessarily reflect a “foregone conclusion,” Liberty may as well be treated that way. The Flames are projected to be 14+ point favorites in just about every game this season, sans a game at Appalachian State (Week 5) and against Western Kentucky (Week 13). Over the last five seasons, Liberty has covered spreads at nearly a 60% clip – perhaps not indicative of being two+ touchdown favorites, but telling of the team’s delivery on the field.

Jamey Chadwell took over last season and brought his signature offense with him. As a result, Liberty led the entire nation in rushing, picking up nearly 300 yards on the ground per contest. Salter and running mate RB Quinton Cooley each rushed for over 1,000 yards. Both return this year, despite Salter flirting with the transfer portal. No Heisman Trophy winner has come from outside current Power Conference teams since 1963. But Salter is as legitimate a Go5 Heisman longshot as we’ve had in a long time.

The Flames lose two of their best offensive linemen but should again have a dominant offensive front, especially given its competition. Star receiver C.J. Daniels left for LSU, leaving the door open for someone like Treon Sibley to step up as the No. 1 target.

Defensively is where Liberty could falter. It finished 99th in red zone defense a season ago and 101st in rushing success rate allowed. Both of those came to light in a 43-8 decimation against Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. The solution? Chadwell added seven defenders from Power Conference teams in the portal.

The bottom line is, Liberty plays the nation’s second-easiest schedule, Chadwell is 44-7 as a head coach, and Liberty is the best team in CUSA by far.

Odds to make the College Football Playoff: Yes +440, No -650

CONFERENCE USA Odds: The Contenders

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Odds to win Conference USA: +500

Western Kentucky, once again, has to replace a prolific passer. The heir apparent was going to be Caden Veltkamp, but WKU brought in Texas State transfer T.J. Finley and transitioned Veltkamp to a tight end. The 6-foot-7 Finley threw for nearly 3,500 yards and 24 touchdowns in San Marcos and should again be a viable option for WKU this year. He headlines CUSA’s top transfer class, which also includes Oklahoma transfer Stacey Wilkins at left tackle.

Last year’s offensive play caller, Drew Holingshead, transitions to the QBs coach in 2024. Head coach Tyson Helton hired Will Friend as OC, an experienced SEC assistant and offensive line coach. Although still an Air Raid system, the run game was nowhere to be seen last year, and Friend looks to improve that. WKU finished 122nd in rushing EPA, and its top rusher, Elijah Young, mustered just 474 yards. Finley does, however, enjoy a talented receiving corps led by 6-foot-3 Dalvin Smith. You may recall his otherworldly catches in the bowl win over Old Dominion.

Despite assumptions made about Air Raid teams, WKU’s defense held up well under Tyson Summers. The Hilltoppers defense finished 66th in points per drive (PPD), 35th in passing EPA, and a strong 25th in EPA on early downs. Stud corner Anthony Johnson Jr. was rumored to transfer out to Texas but decided to stay put. Though just three WKU starters return, 10-of-11 projected starters are juniors or older, and two of the three returners earned All-CUSA honors (Johnson Jr., DT Hosea Wheeler).

It should be more of the same from the Hilltoppers this season. Offensively, they won’t change their identity much, aside from ideally finding more success on the ground. WKU visits Liberty – a game that could determine the CUSA – and hosts Toledo in the non-conference.

Regular season wins: Over 7.5 (-110), Under 7.5 (-110)

Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Odds to win Conference USA: +750

In its FBS debut, Jacksonville State exceeded expectations and then some. Lined with just a 4.5 regular season win total for 2023, Rich Rodriguez & Co. finished 9-4 and won their bowl game. But a lot departs from that team. Only 55% of offensive production returns and 45.7% on defense. While the turbo offense received much of the attention, it was Jax State’s defense that really impressed. Despite being undersized, the uber-athletic front seven caused plenty of havoc, finishing fourth in rush EPA allowed. Scheme and aggression simply removed the run game from opposing game plans.

The 4-2-5 scheme befuddled offensive lines, but defensive coordinator Zac Alley left for Oklahoma. The Gamecocks bring in Tulsa assistant Luke Olson, who comes from the Joe Gillespie 3-3-5 system. Another difficult loss was Chris Hardie, who transferred to Ole Miss this offseason. The personnel setup looks to be similar to last year. Potential all-conference DE J-Rock Swain stands just 5-foot-10, but logged four QB hits and broke up two passes in 10 starts last year.

There’s a trio of possible starters at QB this year. Logan Smothers transferred in last year and started four games; he accounted for the fifth-highest turnover-worthy throw rate in his short time last year (min. 120 attempts). UConn transfer Zion Turner got some starter reps in the spring, but he’ll have to compete with Furman transfer Tyler Huff. Huff led the Paladins to the FCS Semifinals last year and rushed for over 600 yards.

Clay Webb is the name to know on this Jax State offense. He allowed one single sack and was flagged for just one penalty all season at guard and should contend for All-America honors this season. Webb is likely an early-round NFL draft pick come April.

In late June, Jacksonville State successfully bid for full FBS membership. They were able to bypass the antiquated two-year “transition period” where they would not have been eligible for a CUSA championship or bowl berth.

CONFERENCE USA Odds: The Middle Class

With conference realignment inflating conferences to their largest sizes ever, we have to break them down more thoroughly than ever.

Sam Houston State Bearkats
Odds to win Conference USA: +2500

It took nearly two full games and another half-quarter for Sam Houston State to find the end zone in 2023. It took until November for SHSU to notch its first win as an FBS member and until Nov. 11 for that win to come against an FBS opponent. But the Bearkats finished the year strong and return a decent amount in 2024. SHSU won three of its final four games, and its final three losses all came by one score (including against WKU!).

Head coach K.C. Keeler is incredibly accomplished at all levels. He has nine national championship appearances and more than 260 wins. Give Keeler time, and he’ll build a winning football program. By the way, Sam Houston finished the season, he may have already found a winning recipe at the FBS level.

A new starting QB needs designating, and it could be one of three candidates. All three options are listed as the presumed starter in three different magazines – Iowa Wesleyan transfer Hunter Watson (Phil Steele), Central Michigan transfer Jase Bauer (Lindy’s), and incumbent Grant Gunnell (Athlon). That’s to say, who knows?

Whoever gets the start has a cast of extremely talented receivers, perhaps the best duo in CUSA. Noah Smith (783 yards, nine TDs) earned all-conference honors last year and was the catalyst behind the improving offense. Ife Adeyi only started three games due to injury but flashed talent when on the field. RB Jeyvon Ducker transfers in to add pop to a rushing game that didn’t produce a 400-yard net rusher last year.

The schedule is difficult for SHSU. In three of their first six games, the Bearkats have a rest disadvantage. Their final two games of the season come at Jacksonville State and against Liberty; SHSU will need to find all six wins before then to be bowl eligible.

Regular season wins: Over 4.5 (-134), Under 4.5 (+110)

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Odds to win Conference USA: +3000

For the first time since 2006, Middle Tennessee State will not be led by coach Rick Stockstill. After 18 seasons in Murfreesboro, which included 10 bowl appearances, MTSU decided to go another direction, hiring former Vanderbilt head coach Derek Mason. After one camp with the Blue Raiders, Mason was quoted as saying, “This team is much better than I anticipated.” Be that from low expectations or a more talented team, let’s dig in.

Dual-threat QB Nicholas Vattiato returns off his most productive season yet. The junior threw for over 3,000 yards and rushed for nearly 400 more, accounting for 26 total touchdowns. SLOT/TE Holden Willis is one of the most dynamic players in CUSA; he’s one of just two returning players with both a 70% catch rate and 15+ yards per reception. Two others that hit that mark last year but don’t return? NFL draft selections Brian Thomas and Roman Wilson.

But while explosiveness from the receiving corps is a possibility this year, consistency from the offense might not be. This unit finished 93rd in PPD and 91st in EPA last year and failed to add much pop to it in the offseason. Defense was the saving grace, and Mason is a defensive coach. Just 42% of production returns from the 2023 stop unit (just one of the top six tacklers), 120th in the country. While defense will be the focus, the talent isn’t quite there to be a top-50 unit. At least, not without a bit of scheme.

With a new culture in the building and new schemes on both sides of the ball, this is going to be a difficult year for Mason in Year 1. MTSU plays three straight weeknight opponents with a bye and two at a rest disadvantage. The non-conference is tough, handling Ole Miss, Duke (at home!), and Memphis.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Odds to win Conference USA: +3300

The Sonny Cumbie years have not been kind to Louisiana Tech. In his first two years, Cumbie is just 8-21, including 1-14 away from Ruston. The offense ran at lightning pace but finished 81st in PPD, and the defense – both out of gas and without much depth – hasn’t cracked the top 115 under Cumbie. Its best defender, Willie Roberts, is gone, and just one returning defender logged more than five starts with the Bulldogs last season.

Jack Turner was confirmed the starting QB in July after throwing for over 1,000 yards in four starts last year (5 TDs, 5 INTs). He fixes to be the sixth different QB to lead Louisiana Tech in passing in as many years. Luckily, the offensive line will be improved ahead of Turner. Cumbie hit the portal for three new starters, all with college starting experience. However, a new No. 1 in the receiving room will have to be found as dynamic WRs Cyrus Allen (transfer) and Smoke Harris (CFL) left.

To try and fix the defense, Louisiana Tech hired Northern Iowa DC Jeremiah Johnson. UNI finished 67th in scoring defense (26.6 ppg) and 53rd in turnovers (16). Safety Blake Thompson (Iowa State) transfers in to shore up the secondary. CB Demarcus Griffin-Taylor was an All-CUSA selection as a return man and could add some dynamism to the unit, as well.

The athletic director who hired Cumbie is no longer at Louisiana Tech. Another sub-.500 season could send him packing in favor of a hire made by the current AD. The old staff did him no favors with scheduling – Louisiana Tech opens the season against Nicholls and then immediately goes on bye. They handle seven CUSA games in eight weeks with no bye and visit Arkansas in Week 13. If the lack of pop on either side of the ball doesn’t sink LA Tech, the schedule surely will.

A CONFERENCE USA Longshot To Consider: UTEP Miners

Let’s be up front about what “longshot to consider” means in this instance. I’m not betting UTEP to win Conference USA – there’s more rewarding ways to spend my money. But I believe UTEP is being undervalued this season.

New head coach Scotty Walden brings an excitement not seen at UTEP under Dana Dimel. Walden shows up year-round at sporting events with a bare painted chest and is at the front of the student section firing them up. Women’s volleyball, men’s basketball, it doesn’t matter. Walden is there. He brings in a break-neck tempo on offense, citing at a presser that all plays will be run in 12 seconds or less. Twelve Austin Peay transfers, and most of the staff follow Walden to El Paso – a similar setup to G.J. Kinne at Texas State (take note!).

QB Cade McConnell showed lots of pop last year, exploding onto the scene in his first work. According to opposing scouting reports, McConnell looked “pretty good in the new system” coming out of spring. However, he’ll have to find new targets after his top four from last year all depart, namely Kelly Akharaiyi (1,033 yards). The roster personnel will need to be discovered.

Walden’s track record and support staff are what really intrigues me here. At Austin Peay, Walden covered the spread against FBS teams by an average 21(!) points per contest. Defensive coordinator J.J. Clark is a fast-rising name in the industry and found success very quickly at stops in his young career. Offensive coordinator Jake Brown comes from the Louisiana Tech system.

UTEP is a team I’m backing early in the year. This is a team that has changed its entire identity and has a fascinating coaching staff that’s fully bought in on UTEP. Look to back the Miners and overs before the market corrects.

Regular season win total: Over 4.5 (+118), Under 4.5 (-144)

A CONFERENCE USA Team To Fade: New Mexico State Aggies

Expectations are adjusted on New Mexico State following 7-6 and 10-5 seasons under Jerry Kill – its best back-to-back finishes in 60 years – but not adjusted enough. The roster was totally gutted, with 31 players leaving versus just 11 coming in. All three top QBs depart, and seven players from the 2023 roster moved on to Power Conference schools. The only players back are RB Monte Watkins and all five starting offensive linemen.

Oddsmakers expect a regression closer to 4.5 wins in the regular season and even preseason aggregated power ratings project 4.3 wins. But the reality is, New Mexico State could be a bottom-of-the country team this year. Aside from losing most of its talent, the Aggies barely roster any scholarship players. As the wear of the season goes on, and as injuries pile up, this could be the most decimated roster in America.

WRs coach and former UNLV top man Tony Sanchez now heads NMSU. At UNLV, Sanchez went just 20-40 (.333) before getting axed. The move appeared to be an attempt at keeping the Jerry Kill culture in the building – something incredibly difficult to maintain without Kill himself.

2023 was a historical outlier for New Mexico State. This team’s homeostasis is at two or three wins. That’s where I expect NMSU to return to this season with a barebones roster and brand new, and also underwhelming, coaching staff.

The Newbie: Kennesaw State Owls

Welcome to the FBS ranks, Kennesaw State! Unfortunately, many preseason projections pin the Owls as the worst team in the FBS. Our aggregate power ratings tab them for 2.4 regular season wins, the fourth-fewest in the country and right on par with their 2.5 O/U win total. But is that really the case for the latest newbie?

Kennesaw State launched its football program in 2015. Brian Bohannon was named head coach and is still the head coach today, leading Kennesaw State to 11-win seasons in 2019 and 2021. During their transition, the Owls opted to redshirt most of their contributors, leading to an 8-18 run in 2022 and 2023. The other kicker: Kennesaw State is no longer an option team as they had been for years. The new offense features lots of RPO and some option elements but is run primarily from the gun.

Defensively, Kennesaw State is a team that produces coordinators. Three DCs left for FBS jobs in recent years, and Bohannon replaced both coordinators with internal hires. This is a program with a strong culture – one that Bohannon inherited from his time at Georgia.

Expect this team to be run-heavy with QB Davis Bryson and RB Michael Benefield. Bryson completed just two of his 11 attempts last year as a true freshman with just one start; Benefield rushed for 6.3 yards per carry in six starts. Also, keep an eye on WR Gabriel Benyard, who logged six touchdowns on just 25 catches and averaged 25.8 yards per catch (and added 430 rush yards!). The defense features South Carolina transfer Donovan Westmoreland, the highest-rated player to ever play for Kennesaw.

After going 6-for-16 on field goals last year, special teams has to improve. There’s not much acclimation time, as Kennesaw State visits UTSA, San Jose State (cross-country), and Western Kentucky in its first eight games. They also have home dates with Louisiana and Liberty. The Owls will play at a rest disadvantage four times this season and with a rest advantage just once.

The True Longshot: FIU Panthers

Since making three straight bowl games between 2017-19 under Butch Davis, FIU has been an annual FBS bottomfeeder. The Panthers are 9-32 in the last four seasons, regularly being noncompetitive, even in CUSA league games. Now-sophomore QB Keyone Jenkins returns but top WR Kris Mitchell (transfer) does not. To fill gaps on the offensive line, FIU had to dip into the Division-II depths to find a starter (Ben Shellenback, Tusculum). Mike MacIntrye has gone 4-8 in back-to-back seasons and could again this year, as a ceiling. FIU may only be favored in two or three games this year (Monmouth FCS, New Mexico State, at Kennesaw State).

CUSA All-conference Team

QB: Kaidon Salter (Liberty); T.J. Finley (WKU)
RB: Quinton Cooley (Liberty); Monte Watkins (New Mexico State)
WR: Dalvin Smith (Western Kentucky); Noah Smith (Sam Houston State); Treon Sibley (Liberty)
TE: Holden Willis (Middle Tennessee)
OT: Xavior Gray (Liberty); Shiyazh Pete (New Mexico State)
IOL: Jordan White (Liberty); Clay Webb (Jacksonville State); Quntavious Leslie (WKU)

DL: Maurice Westmoreland (UTEP); C.J. Bazile (Liberty); Hosea Wheeler (WKU); Tevita Tafuna (UTEP)
LB: Kavian Gaither (Sam Houston State); Reggie Peterson (FIU); Issiah Nixon (Sam Houston State)
CB: Anthony Johnson Jr. (WKU); Hezekiah Masses (FIU)
SAF: Brylan Green (Liberty); Fred Perry (Jacksonville State)

Coaching & Coordinator Changes In CUSA

Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee: Formerly the head coach 40 minutes up the highway at Vanderbilt, Mason is familiar with central Tennessee. He steps in for Rick Stockstill, who spent 18 years at the helm. In his time at Vanderbilt, Mason dealt with an uphill battle. In CUSA, he has an easier task, although MTSU’s roster lacks the depth necessary to compete immediately.

Tony Sanchez, New Mexico State: Sanchez, a .333 FBS head coach at UNLV, follows up Jerry Kill, who led NMSU to its best two-year streak in 60 years. He was an internal hire, working with the wide receivers last season. Sanchez might have the most difficult rebuild job in America, as he netted -20 players in the transfer portal (11 in, 31 out). He also battles the expectations of a 10-5 season set last year.

Scotty Walden, UTEP: Walden completely overhauled the culture around UTEP overnight. Enthusiastic, bombastic, and promising, Walden brings a new ultra-up-tempo offense to El Paso. He also calls upon the assistance of young and hungry assistants. UTEP went and found the total foil for the oust Dana Dimel, who focused on pro-style running the ball and defense. Long-term buy in El Paso!

Check out every Conference USA coaching and coordinator change this offseason!

College Football Betting news