College Football Conference Championship Odds: Which Teams Secure CFP Berth?
Perhaps no weekend in the College Football Playoff era has had quite the same implications as this one. Five unbeaten teams square off in a conference championship game this weekend. At least seven teams are in the mix in the latest CFP rankings; therefore, all seven are alive in college football futures too. Some spots will be sorted out by the games, and others may become more muddied. Let’s look at conference championship odds for each of the 10 games.
The SEC and Pac-12 championships have the biggest direct impact on the Playoff picture. However, Michigan (12-0), Florida State (12-0), and Texas (11-1) are in must-win situations themselves. Conference championship weekend begins Friday night at 7:00 p.m. ET with Conference USA.
College Football Conference Championship Odds
Compare odds from the best college football betting sites in the tables below. Place a bet on any game by clicking on conference championship odds.
Conference USA Championship: New Mexico State at No. 24 Liberty
Friday, 7:00 p.m. ET on CBSSN
Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, VA
Jerry Kill once again turned in a masterclass. He led the Aggies to their first 10-win season since 1960 and a conference championship game in their first year with CUSA. They head to Lynchburg to face the lone unbeaten non-Power Five team in Liberty. The Flames saw another successful season under first-year coach Jamey Chadwell and are also a first-year CUSA member.
The betting market has backed Liberty this week, pushing them up from -9.5 earlier in the week. Note that the Flames played the FBS’ easiest schedule this season, according to ESPN’s FPI. While NMSU’s isn’t significantly higher (116th), the Aggies did notch a win at Auburn this season.
Pac-12 Championship: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 3 Washington
Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET on ABC
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Oregon and Washington square off for not just a conference title but almost certainly a spot in the CFP. This is a rematch of their Week 7 matchup, a game where Washington eked out a 33-30 victory at home. Since that game, the Huskies have only been outscoring opponents by 6.5 points per game. The loss was a wakeup call for Dan Lanning’s crew, who outscored their opponents by 22.3 points per game since then. Both teams faced a similar difficulty in schedule, sharing four common opponents.
Another layer to the puzzle – Bo Nix currently leads Heisman Trophy odds. With LSU’s Jayden Daniels hot on his tail, expect Oregon to make one final push for Nix in this game. The market has been fairly one-sided since opening, favoring Oregon.
Big 12 Championship: No. 18 Oklahoma State vs. No. 7 Texas
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET on ABC
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Despite low preseason expectations, Mike Gundy secured his 10th nine-win season in 15 years with Oklahoma State. Since 2008, Gundy has twice the number of 9+ win seasons than 4+ loss seasons. However, the market has favored Texas heavily since an opening number of -11.5. The Longhorns last plastered Texas Tech by 50 points, while the Pokes needed a multi-score comeback and two overtime periods to defeat BYU. The recent form tells the story of this number.
This will be Texas’ last Big 12 game before moving on to the SEC next season. The Longhorns last won an outright Big 12 title in 2009, while Oklahoma State is searching for their first Big 12 Championship Game victory (last appeared in 2021).
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MAC Championship: Miami (OH) vs. Toledo
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
Ford Field, Detroit, MI
No team pieced together a quieter 10-win season than the Miami Redhawks. They lost starting QB Brett Gabbert midseason and have been under the direction of Aveon Smith since. However, they hang their hat on a stout defense, holding all but two MAC foes to under 17 points. Toledo also relies on a talented defense but adds in the MAC’s leading rusher, Peny Boone, and top quarterback, Dequan Finn.
These two teams squared off in Oxford in October, where Toledo pulled off a 21-17 victory. Sharp action pushed the under from its opening mark of 46.5 points to currently. The Redhawks may be without top receiver Gage Larvadain, who hasn’t played since Week 11.
Mountain West Championship: Boise State at UNLV
Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET on FOX
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Despite dismissing coach Andy Avalos midseason, Boise State finds themselves in its sixth MWC Championship in seven seasons. The Broncos’ 7-5 record is misleading for the way this team played; four of their five losses came by a single score and three of those on a walk-off play. They roster the conference’s most dynamic backfield and best offensive player in Asthon Jeanty.
UNLV reaches its first conference championship in over 30 years under first-year coach Barry Odom. Odom and offensive coordinator Brennan Marion are popular names in the coaching carousel for a number of open positions. However, the Rebels took most of the action this week, bumping the line under +3.
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American Championship: SMU at No. 22 Tulane
Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET on ABC
Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA
SMU will play without starting QB Preston Stone this game. The stud passer suffered a broken leg in the final regular season game and is out for the remainder of games this year. The Mustangs depart the American for the ACC next season. Tulane secured back-to-back conference title berths for the first time in school history. Last year, their conference victory propelled them to a New Year’s Six bowl bid (and eventual victory). As the highest-ranked Group of Five teams in the latest CFP rankings, the Green Wave is in the driver’s seat to repeat there, too.
Despite being down Stone, the market heavily favored SMU this week, pushing the line down from +5.5 earlier in the week. The point total was also driven heavily down from its 52.5 opening mark.
SEC Championship: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 8 Alabama
Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET on CBS
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
The game with the most intrigue this weekend plays out in Atlanta. Georgia may be without the services of two of their top pass catchers, Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey. The last time Kirby Smart’s squad lost a game was to Alabama in the 2021 SEC Championship Game – a loss the Dawgs later avenged in the National Championship. Since losing to Texas in Week 2, Alabama has found its offensive identity and has been playing as well as anybody in the country.
This is one of the few games on the calendar influenced by public money. The public typically likes to bet favorites, so Georgia likely holds their spot around -6. A UGA victory seals their spot in the CFP, almost certainly as the No. 1 seed. However, an Alabama win may give us the first SEC-less Playoff field, should Michigan, Florida State, and Texas all win.
Sun Belt Championship: Appalachian State at Troy
Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2
Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, AL
In two seasons at the helm of Troy, head coach Jon Sumrall has a 22-4 record and a conference championship. The Trojans’ two losses on the season came to 11-1 James Madison and top-25 Kansas State, both in the first three weeks of the season. Since entering Sun Belt play, Troy held all but one opponent to 17 points or less and played in just one one-score game.
Appalachian State needed a late-season push and some losses to the top of the East Division (and a denied JMU waiver) to clinch their spot. The Mountaineers ride a five-game win streak into Troy, including a 26-23 overtime win at James Madison. Few teams are currently playing better football than App State.
ACC Championship: No. 14 Louisville vs. No. 4 Florida State
Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET on ABC
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
The biggest headline late this season is the absence of Jordan Travis. The FSU star broke his leg in Week 12 and confirmed his career with the Seminoles is over. Tate Rodemaker struggled in his first start, completing just 48% of his passes and throwing for 134 yards on the road at Florida. Louisville’s Jeff Brohm became the first coach to lead two different teams to conference championships in back-to-back seasons, having taken Purdue to the Big Ten game last year.
Following Rodemaker’s starting debut, money poured in on Louisville. The Cardinals fell from +6.5 underdogs to as low as +1.5 with no signs of stopping. The over/under also went for a ride, climbing to as high as 53.5 points before crashing to its current position.
Big Ten Championship: No. 16 Iowa vs. No. 2 Michigan
Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET on FOX
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
The Big Ten caps conference championship weekend with perhaps the most lopsided game. Michigan did meet some resistance as a 23-point favorite later in the week. At +23 and with an over/under set at 35.5 midweek, Iowa had an implied team total of just six points. These two teams met in the 2021 Big Ten Championship, where Michigan throttled Iowa 42-3.
Jim Harbaugh returns to the sidelines after serving another three-game suspension. Without Harbaugh, Michigan still went 3-0 with wins over Penn State and Ohio State. This is also the last game featuring a Big Ten West team before the league expands and cuts divisions in 2024.
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